Live signal index ·
❄ Cooling Overheating 🔥
A composite reading of physical build-out and platform economics. Higher means the expansion is still intensifying; lower means the momentum is fading. Here's what goes into it.
What the answer is built from
Five independent signals, each weighted by how directly it reflects real, committed demand. Each is scored from 0 (contracting) to 100 (surging).
The trajectory
Where the money and the megawatts are actually going.
Combined infrastructure spend, per quarter
Billions of dollars
Spend by operator
$B / quarter
New data-center power queued
Gigawatts / year
Total new power capacity queued
Gigawatts / year
Where data-center load is landing
GW in queue, top regions
The sovereign money
It isn't only US hyperscalers writing the checks anymore. Governments and sovereign wealth funds now treat AI compute as strategic infrastructure — and have pledged hundreds of billions to build it, buy into it, or avoid being left behind. Here's who's committing what, and how each region's playbook differs.
Marquee commitments announced capital, $B · hover any bar for detail
Headline announcements, not deployed cash — a mix of state programs, sovereign wealth funds and public-private ventures, so they aren't strictly comparable (European figures overlap; * South Korea's cluster runs to 2047). Illustrative, not investment advice. Sources: government announcements, Global SWF, IEA and press reporting (2024–2026).
Where it could actually jam
Demand is only half the story. Even with the money flowing, the build-out slams into hard limits — from the accelerator itself (a market chokepoint as much as a physical one), through raw silicon and the machines that pattern it, packaging, passives, optics and the network fabric, out to water, power, the skilled trades who build it, and the export politics that can throttle any link overnight. Here's how binding each chokepoint becomes year by year through 2030, and the companies with the most leverage over it.
How binding easing tight severe binding · hover a year for detail
Company names indicate supply-chain exposure to each bottleneck — illustrative, not investment advice. Trajectory synthesized from IEA, McKinsey, SemiAnalysis, TrendForce, Yole, SK Group and industry commentary (2024–2026).