Are we in a recession? do we need one?
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I want to talk about several things in this piece - but first, I want to highlight that a lot of these talking points are emotional and it’s very difficult to be 100% objective around it. I have respect for both sides of most arguments, and I’ve tried my best to get that across here. However, I understand if there is disagreement with some points (of course).
The weird thing about economics and the market is that bad things are sometimes perceived to be good. For example, from Bank of America -
The good news is that high frequency data is showing hints of [job market] cooling off… job posting on Indeed are down 8.5ppt from the high on December 31, 2021
Well, hmm.
This is not really good news. It’s good news in the sense that its good that the labor market is slowing down so there isn’t that pesky ol’ problem of wage …