Frankly, the biggest reason nobody can figure out how to make a Duke Nukem reboot work is because they think the 90s edgelord bullshit is the main reason that Duke Nukem 3D was such a breakout hit, when the truth of the matter is that it succeeded at least partly in spite of that. Duke Nukem 3D legitimately pushed the envelope in terms of what it was possible for a first-person shooter to be – in many ways it's just as foundational to the genre in its modern form as Wolfenstein 3D or Doom. You can't recapture that with dick jokes, and if you're not willing to take risks in terms of basic game design, dick jokes are all you have.
Ultimately, what the franchise really needs to shake off its creative rust is to stop trying to iterate on its established formula and shift genres entirely. To this end, I have a proposal: make the next Duke Nukem game a side-scrolling metroidvania. In this essay
It is true DN3D has its importances in both gameplay and engine developments (Which can be said about a lot of games and i even see part of why Forever went into development Hell), but let's not forget that Duke as a character and the setting were still appealing to people.
Even with the parodies and humor, the game was still technically made by people that loved the media they were referencing since a lot of classic FPS games were built on being inspired by media the devs enjoyed.
Whereas something like Doom is not in the same level/direction but everyone accepts it as a "story doesn't matter much" kind of series even before that Carmack quote (But there's also people still thinking the premise is cool in general and the ways people interpret it etc).
The fact that Duke 3D even references H.G. Wells's The War of the Worlds or The Simpsons also adds to the pop culture reference nature not just being tied to action movies.
The game in general has a certain level of effort and quality that at a certain point, it's clear the devs liked some of the stuff they added (And in turn, so did fans).
We've still had way more Duke games between 3D and Forever, so they kept the series going in that image.
Shadow Warrior is a more specific case because of the politically incorrect/racist humor but i'm sure at the mindset of the devs, they just thought that kinda stuff was funny without intending to do any malice.
But SW reboot games are obviously a different direction for very obvious reasons (Even if one can say "at least don't do MCU style quipping").
Forever has its issues but we also gotta be careful understanding exactly why that game is a trash fire.
Because it's one thing to say "Duke Nukem is a product of its time" but so are the recent prespectives people are having on it.
When DNF came out, you had the expected game journalists and media saying you-know-what at the time.
Can't help but think posts like these are written in the modern "media literate" mentallity that almost wants everything to be some sort of Starship Troopers style subversion (As in, what has already been happenging with Neon Genesis Evangelion for years) because it includes elements that otherwise would seem out of place in certain demographics and a modern take on fandom culture.
Or maybe people are looking way into the parody/joke aspect of Duke Nukem, similar to how people make Daisy's death in Doom 1 a bit more dramatic than it actually is.
Or just a side effect of irony poison from 2010's and so on, maybe.
One good look at fans and content from other eras might even show someone using "badass" unironically before everyone agreed Randy Pitchford ruined that word.
If anything, i expect a Duke reboot to suffer from the devs playing it safe with the crude humor and mix that up with even more boring pop culture references than DNF did.
At least as far as AAA goes, since whatever attitude 90's devs had could more likely reappear among indie devs not concerned with shareholders and the masses.
Even nowadays, DN3D doesn't seem that "edgy".
