Cargo bike potential - Potential everyday use of cargo bikes, key enablers and barriers, the role of shared services, and methodologies for evaluating and realizing this potential.

Abstract

Using a mixed methods approach consisting of expert interviews and the development of GIS-based methodologies, this thesis examines the potential of cargo bikes as a mode of transport for personal everyday use in a Swedish urban context. It explores enablers and barriers, the role of shared cargo bike services, and how to evaluate potential and locate sharing stations to optimally contribute to fulfilling this potential. The result suggests that potential should be conceptualized in two ways: geographical potential, based on proximity, and a truer current potential depending on numerous (missing) enablers and barriers. Both the qualitative estimates and the quantitative measurement, based on a case study of the city of Gothenburg, deemed the geographical potential as sky high. The GIS-based analysis showed that 63.94% of the population could reach 19 out of 20 everyday amenities within 15 minutes. However, due to the numerous factors on top of land use, the current potential is significantly lower, probably only a few percent of individuals and trip are likely to adapt cargo bikes within the current conditions. Two distinct potential user groups were also identified: daily users (e.g. parents with children) and occasional users (e.g. for shopping or excursions). In terms of enablers and barriers, the most significant finding is the intricate interplay between various factors across different dimensions. Multiple enablers must be in place, and several barriers addressed, to make cargo bikes a viable option for personal everyday use. Although not all factors are equally important, they must be understood in relation to one another. There is no one-size-fits-all solution to encourage a modal shift toward cargo bikes, instead, a tailored mix of site-specific measures is required. The most important enabler themes were behaviour and norms, infrastructure, visibility, and regulations. Particular emphasis was found on creating a cycling culture, providing parking facilities at home, enabling trial opportunities, and developing a network of well-designed cycle paths – all of which must be understood in relation to the car, the main competitor to cargo bikes. Shared cargo bikes were found play a significant role to play in a potential transition and fulfilling of the potential, serving as means of transport for the occasional user, but even more as a transitional tool – through try-out possibilities and marketing for cargo bikes with presence in the city landscape – to create daily users. Which criteria (and their respective weight) such a system needs to fulfil to succeed were identified through the interviews, then the spatial criteria were used in a GIS-based multi-criteria analysis to evaluate optimal locations for shared cargo bike systems, resulting in a method developed for optimal locations of shared cargo bike services in a Swedish urban context.