SCN Global Flow Monitor — Supply Chain Network Dynamics

Disruption Scenario

Shock Target

Scenario Preset

Capacity Retained

30%

Demand Elasticity ε

0.10

Supply Elasticity η

0.10

Horizon

26 wks

Shock target   Collapse >60%
Degraded 10–60%   Insulated
Overland / pipeline

Market Price p(t)

Downstream Flow Losses

Emergency Stockpile Drawdown (% remaining)

Model & calibration: Supply Chain Networks — fluid-stochastic network clearing, Skorokhod inventory dynamics, endogenous pricing with strategic trade rebalancing. Stockpile-depletion events shown for net-importer emergency buffers; exporter buffers are elastic-supply accounts (see paper §5.2). Capacity-retained settings bundle bypass infrastructure (e.g., East–West & Habshan–Fujairah pipelines for Hormuz). No rationing policy is modeled: buffers drain mechanically.
arxiv.org/abs/2607.17491