GitHub - openpredictionmarkets/socialpredict: Prediction Market Platform: Easy to Deploy, Open Source MIT Licensed

The open prediction market engine for everyone

SocialPredict lets anyone – individuals, classrooms, companies, and even governments – tap into the power of prediction markets.

Setting Up SocialPredict Website with HTTPS on a Virtual Private Computer

SocialPredict Logging In and Creating Market

Join us in shaping the future of prediction markets by building connections and expertise within your community!

Used By

Kenyon College (Political Science course PSCI 303, Campaigns & Elections; syllabus here)

Stargazers Over Time

Licensing

SocialPredict is available under the MIT License.

Roadmap at a Glance

We’re building SocialPredict as the best free prediction-market infrastructure you can run yourself — today and into the future.

flowchart LR

    classDef roadmap fill:#dbeafe,stroke:#1d4ed8,color:#111827,stroke-width:2px;

    Y2025["🧩 Service Architecture<br/>2025"]
    Y2026["🧱 Microservices & Math<br/>2026"]
    Y2027["☁️ Cloud & UX<br/>2027"]
    Y2030["🚀 HPC & Analytics<br/>2028–2030"]

    Y2025 --> Y2026 --> Y2027 --> Y2030

    class Y2025,Y2026,Y2027,Y2030 roadmap

Staging

Check out our staging instance at kconfs.com to see the newest main branch deployment in action. This environment may be reset, load tested, or temporarily unavailable while we test deployment and capacity changes.

Our model office / production-style release target is brierfoxforecast.com. This environment is intended to track published releases rather than every merge to main.

Feature Highlights

Moderator Mode

SocialPredict now supports a moderator-driven market workflow. Approved moderators can propose markets, while admins retain final publishing control. Proposed markets are not tradable until an admin approves them.

Highlights:

Moderator approval/status management
Proposed, published, and rejected market lifecycle states
Proposal cost accounting and refund behavior for rejected proposals
Moderator profile tabs for proposed, published, and rejected markets
Admin review queues for proposed, approved, and rejected markets
Full market descriptions and custom YES/NO labels shown during review

Admin and CMS Tools

Admins have expanded operational controls for reviewing users, reviewing proposed markets, stewarding market operations, organizing market discovery, and managing public sharing metadata.

Highlights:

Admin user queue for moderator eligibility/status review
Market review tools with approval, rejection, review trail, and refund behavior
Market stewardship reassignment so admins can move operational responsibility from a suspended or unavailable moderator to another active moderator
Admin-managed market tags, topic navigation, market pins, and market discovery layout controls
CMS-managed social share title, description, image, and image-enable setting
Default OpenGraph/social share image support

Market Discovery and Governance

Market discovery has moved beyond a flat market list. Admin-managed tags and market discovery layout controls now support topic navigation, pinned markets, and tag-filtered topic pages while keeping search as the primary entry point.

Highlights:

Admin-managed tags shown on market creation, admin review, market lists, and market detail pages
/markets topic navigation with persistent tag/category pins
Tag-filtered secondary pages under /markets/topic/:slug
Pinned market cards for curated discovery
Infinite-scroll market lists for /markets and topic pages
Search and pagination improvements for admin market review and user/moderator queues

Sharing and Embeddable Markets

Market pages now have a stronger sharing foundation, including OpenGraph and Twitter card metadata for link previews. The embeddable-market feature plan is documented so individual markets can be shared and embedded more cleanly as that work continues.

Highlights:

Market-aware OpenGraph metadata
Social share image endpoint and default image
Security-header updates needed for controlled embedding
Feature planning for iframe-friendly market embeds

Market Amendments, Stewardship, and Work Profits

Market governance now includes clearer controls around who can operate a market after it is published and how contract-like text can be clarified.

Highlights:

Immutable market titles with additive-only description amendments
Moderator/steward amendment proposal queues with admin pending/approved/rejected review
Optional admin auto-approval for market proposals and amendments
Suspended moderators lose market-creation/governance capabilities
Current stewards, not necessarily original creators, can govern and resolve assigned markets
Thresholded moderator work-profit payouts after successful market resolution
User financial reporting for moderator work profits

Read Models and Performance Foundations

The backend now has a stronger performance boundary between transaction-time math and display/read-model data.

Highlights:

Display-oriented market accounting snapshots for volume, dust, probability, participants, and chart data
Cached/read-model paths for system metrics, user financial metrics, market cards, leaderboards, and market widgets
Freshness messaging for cached display widgets
Pagination for market bets, positions, market leaderboards, global leaderboard, and market lists
Boundary tests to keep snapshots out of buy/sell/resolution transaction paths

Load Testing and Release Dossiers

The repository now includes an external load-testing harness under loadtest/. It uses k6 from a separate load-generator machine and can seed remote staging fixtures, pull fixture CSVs, run smoke/baseline/hot-market tests, and capture host telemetry through HostOps.

Current capacity evidence is summarized in the staging load-test dossier, the large Basic AMD experiment notebook, and the capacity forecast dossier.

Highlights:

k6 smoke, baseline, hot-market burst, and soak scenarios
Remote staging fixture seeding and fixture pull commands
Host telemetry capture for CPU, RAM, disk, network, Docker, backend, Postgres, and Traefik
Host profile capture to record the exact tested Droplet shape and Docker/container limits
Release dossier tooling for turning load-test results into reviewable evidence

Example dossier: Staging Capacity Dossier, 2026-05-29. Look for the most recent dossier before making deployment or sizing decisions, because capacity results depend on the exact release, host size, database topology, and rate-limit configuration under test.

Latest forecast note: Capacity Forecast Dossier, 2026-06-02 records the strongest current sustained hot-market result as 250 bets/sec for 5m on a single-node DigitalOcean Basic AMD 8 vCPU / 32 GiB RAM host, while 300 bets/sec for 5m is not yet a clean supported target.

Getting Started

Setting up a Local Instance

Info on Local Setup
Info on How Economics Can Be Customized
Development fixture helpers are available through ./SocialPredict dev-bootstrap-users for local smoke testing.

Deploying to the Web

OpenPredictionMarkets deployment conventions:

Merges to main deploy staging at kconfs.com.
Published GitHub releases deploy the model office / production-style target at brierfoxforecast.com.
GitHub Actions dispatch Ansible-based deploys and then verify public /health and /readyz.
HostOps is a local convenience wrapper for host SSH, environment discovery, disk checks, cleanup, and load-test telemetry support.

API, Operations, and Load Testing

How Do Prediction Markets Work?

Here's a quick primer about how (and why) prediction markets work. Want more info? We maintain a list of resources where you can see research on prediction markets in action.

Contributing

We welcome and appreciate every contribution. Get started by reading our guide and make sure to follow our Code of Conduct.

Where to Next?

Brush up on our Development Conventions
Review the canonical Backend API documentation
Check out our ongoing Projects
Look at our Issues
Have your say on GitHub Discussions