Valuation Scenarios, System Dynamics, and Why Jet Fuel Supply Chains Broke First
Context
In late February 2026, a cascade of military events, U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, the reported death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, and retaliatory drone and missile attacks by the IRGC, produced a consequence that energy markets had long modeled but never truly stress-tested: the effective operational closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow…