Alberta separatism

Advocacy for Alberta seceding from Canada

Alberta separatism, also known as the Alberta sovereignty movement, consists of a series of 20th- and 21st-century movements advocating the secession of the province of Alberta from Canada, with some groups also supporting the creation of a sovereign union with the other provinces of Western Canada, and other groups supporting Alberta joining the United States.

The main issues driving separatist sentiment have been the power disparity relative to Ottawa and other western provinces; a sense of distinctiveness with regard to Alberta's cultural and political identity;^{[citation needed]} and Canadian economic policy, particularly as it pertains to Alberta's petroleum industry and equalization payments.

The concept of separation has gained considerable media attention in the aftermath of the 2025 federal election. In 2025, the Alberta Forever Canada citizen initiative opposing Alberta's separation from Canada was launched and verified by Elections Alberta pending its surpassing the required amount of signatures.^[1] In early 2026, Elections Alberta approved a petition which, pending legal challenges, intends to lead to a separation referendum.^{[2][3][4][5][6]}

A legal challenge to the proposed referendum on separation from Canada was addressed by Alberta Justice Shaina Leonard who on 13 May 2026 ruled in favour of several First Nations whose lawyers argued that Alberta's referendum process involving its use for possible separation of Alberta from Canada has been unconstitutional because First Nations were not consulted and that separation under these circumstances would violate treaty rights.^[7] This issue of treaty rights has arisen because Alberta is within the territories of several of the Numbered Treaties between First Nations and the monarchy of Canada agreed to prior to the creation of Alberta as a province. On 21 May 2026, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith responded to the ruling by announcing that Alberta will hold a referendum on whether to trigger the process for holding a binding referendum on Alberta separating from Canada.^[8]

Alberta's secession would be subject to the federal Clarity Act and the Supreme Court's ruling in Reference re Secession of Quebec, both of which require a clear referendum result followed by constitutional negotiations — not unilateral separation.^[9][10] Recent legal challenges have also emphasized that any separation process must comply with the Constitution of Canada and uphold the treaty and constitutional rights of Indigenous peoples and other minorities.^[7]

The discovery of vast reserves of oil in the 1940s ushered in a twenty-year period of intense exploration, new discoveries, and rapid expansion of Alberta's oil industry.^[11] According to journalist Jen Gerson, however, Alberta was still "heavily rural and bitter with western grievance. Freight rates and protectionism made economic diversification in the prairies all but impossible. It was said to be cheaper to send cows and grain to be slaughtered in Ontario than it was to ship meat."^[12]

According to political scientists David Elton and Roger Gibbins, a 1969 provincial poll found that only 5 per cent of those polled "expressed interest in even discussing the merits of separation."^[13]

In the 1970s, the world experienced two major oil crises. The first, the 1973 oil crisis, coincided with the Yom-Kippur War: the decision by the US to support Israel in the conflict caused retaliation by Egypt and Syria, enacting an oil embargo that resulted in oil prices spiking in North America.^[14] The second oil crisis came in 1979, in the wake of the Iranian Revolution.^[15] Some members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and a few similarly minded oil-rich nations had ceased all oil exports to the United States and countries that supported Israel. In both cases, the price of oil sold to North America spiked and service stations ran out of fuel; long lines were evident at gas stations across North America.

The Alberta government and the Canadian federal government responded politically to address oil reserves and conservation of petroleum resources. In 1971, the Alberta government, headed by Harry Strom, created an environmental ministry, the first of its kind, with a mandate to manage and conserve Alberta's natural resources.^[16] Federally, in 1974, the Office of Energy Conservation was created. Conflict arose between Alberta and Canada after the 1973 crisis, over the management and distribution of Alberta's oil resources, and financial wealth. Nevertheless, support for independence remained a fringe phenomenon. A 1974 survey conducted in Calgary found less than four per cent of respondents "expressed even the most cautious support for separatism"; three years later, 1977 survey by the Calgary Herald found that only 2.7 per cent of Albertans supported independence.^[13]

Support for Alberta separatism increased after Pierre Trudeau returned as prime minister following the 1980 federal election. A 1981 poll by the Canada West Foundation found that 49 percent of respondents agreed that "Western Canadians get so few benefits from being part of Canada that they might as well go it on their own."^[13]

Alberta had experienced rapid economic growth in the oil sector because of high oil prices. In October 1980, the Trudeau government implemented the National Energy Program (NEP). The government argued that Canadian ownership and control of natural resources were important to national energy security. Trudeau also argued that Canada's energy policy had become divisive and required greater fairness in revenue sharing.^[17] The program expanded domestic price controls, included revenue-sharing measures, incentives for oil exploration on federally owned lands,^[17] and tax on oil and gas revenues but excluded the oil sands.^[18] Alberta Premier Peter Lougheed opposed these aspects of the program. He challenged the program in court and criticized it publicly, including in a televised address in which he warned that the NEP would bring more "Ottawa" into Alberta's affairs.^[17]

Lougheed threatened to reduce Alberta's oil and gas production if the federal government increased taxes on the industry. Reduced Alberta production would have required Central Canadian refineries and businesses to purchase foreign oil, which the federal government would have subsidized. Lougheed argued that the federal government could not afford that subsidy while running a $13.7 billion deficit in 1980.^[19] He announced a 60,000-barrel reduction in Alberta's crude oil production over nine months beginning in April 1981. He also suspended two oil sands projects.^[17][19][20] In 1981, the Oil Accord removed parts of the NEP that Alberta opposed.^[19] Many Albertans viewed the NEP as federal intrusion into provincial affairs.^[21] Edmonton economist Alan Scarfe argued that many people in Western Canada, especially Alberta, viewed the NEP as a policy that benefited eastern provinces at Alberta's expense.^[22]

Shortly after the NEP's implementation, the 1980s oil glut began. Energy prices fell sharply because of declining demand.^[23] Lower prices contributed to a recession in Alberta, the abandonment of oil and gas projects, and high unemployment. Lower international prices also led Eastern Canada to purchase foreign oil, undermining the NEP's goal of self-sufficiency.

The NEP has been blamed for an infrastructure deficit, and reduced growth of the Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund, which was meant to save as much of the earnings during high oil prices to act as a "rainy day" cushion if oil prices collapsed because of the cyclical nature of the oil and gas industry.^[12] A popular slogan that appeared on bumper stickers was "Let the Eastern bastards freeze in the dark." Other bumpers stated "I'd rather push this thing a mile than buy gas from PetroCan."^[24][25]

In October 1980, when Trudeau dismissed the threat of Alberta separatism as a bargaining tool from Western Canadians premiers, Lougheed agreed with him, telling Don Newman that no one in Western Canada wants to separate and they are "a part of the mainstream of Canadian life".^[26] However, some critics argued that Lougheed ran a hostile and polarizing campaign against federal oil and gas policy and forced Albertans to choose between provincial and national citizenship.^[17] Hostility toward the federal government contributed to Alberta separatism, which became more visible when separatist Gordon Kesler was elected to the Legislative Assembly of Alberta in a 1982 by-election.^[17] British Columbia lawyer Doug Christie formed the Western Canada Concept to promote western separatism. The party drew 2,700 people to a speech at the Jubilee Auditorium in Edmonton.^[27] In the 1982 provincial election, the Western Canada Concept received 111,131 votes (11.8 percent of the total vote), but did not elect any members.^[28]

Separatism and the Western Canada Concept's popularity declined after Brian Mulroney led the Progressive Conservative Party to victory in the 1984 federal election. Mulroney agreed to the Western Accord on Energy, which phased out the NEP over three years.^[19] However, by the end of Mulroney's time in office, many Albertans viewed his government as neglectful of Western Canada.^[29]

Two attempts at separatist political parties occurred in the early 2000s. The Alberta Independence Party was founded prior to the 2001 Alberta general election, but was unable to gather sufficient signatures to register as a political party.^[30] In the election it unsuccessfully ran 14 of its supporters as independent candidates, receiving approximately 7,500 votes.^[31][32] In the 2004 election, the Separation Party of Alberta nominated 12 candidates who won 4,680 votes (0.5% of provincial total, without electing a candidate.

There was significant opposition within Alberta to the Kyoto Protocol as the Kyoto treaty was believed to have negative effects on the provincial economy, which is based to a large degree on the oil and gas industry. (Alberta had the world's second largest proven reserves of oil, behind only Saudi Arabia.^[33])

Naturalized Albertan Stephen Harper (b. Leaside, Toronto, 1959) became Prime Minister of Canada in a minority government in the 2006 federal election. Harper had been a significant figure in the Reform Party and was leader of the Canadian Alliance from 2002 until its merger with the PCs. Due to Harper's Reform roots, Albertans held faith that he would be the trusted figure to protect Alberta's interests.^{[citation needed]} As a result, Alberta's separatist movement sat on the side-lines, with uncertain prospects.^{[citation needed]} Some pundits predicted that this result would cause support for separatism to ebb away.^{[citation needed]}

Public support for separation existed but remained limited during this period. In January 2004, Premier Ralph Klein told Reader's Digest that one in four Albertans supported separation. In August 2005, a poll commissioned by the Western Standard found that 42 percent of Albertans and 35.6 percent of respondents across the four western provinces supported the statement that "Western Canadians should begin to explore the idea of forming their own country."^[34]

In 2000, Parliament passed the Clarity Act at the urging of Prime Minister Jean Chrétien. The Act sets out the conditions under which the federal government would enter negotiations after a provincial referendum on secession. It requires a clear referendum question and a clear majority of eligible voters in favour of secession before negotiations can begin. The Act does not define a fixed numerical threshold for a clear majority. Instead, the House of Commons is authorized to decide whether the referendum question was clear and whether a clear majority voted in favour of secession.^{[citation needed]}

Support for Albertan separatism increased with the Canadian federal election victory of Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party on October 19, 2015.^[35][36][37] While speaking at a town hall in Peterborough, Ontario, on January 13, 2017, Trudeau said, "We can't shut down the oil sands tomorrow. We need to phase them out. We need to manage the transition off of our dependence on fossil fuels. That is going to take time."^[38] The next day at a Calgary vs Edmonton hockey game in Edmonton, Trudeau was loudly booed by the crowd.^[39] His unpopularity in Alberta was a significant rallying point for Alberta separatists. The topic of Alberta separating from Canada was the subject of a number of mainstream media reports.^[40][36][37]

Geopolitical analyst Peter Zeihan has made two major statements about Alberta's situation in relation Canada in 2015 and in 2026 over the potential referendum on independece. In 2015 he said "Right now, every man, woman and child in Alberta pays $6,000 more into the national budget than they get back. Alberta is the only province that is a net contributor to that budget — by 2020, the number will exceed $20,000 per person, $40,000 per taxpayer. That will be the greatest wealth transfer in per capita terms in the Western world."^[37] Per Statistics Canada, in 2015 Alberta paid $27 billion more into the federal treasury than it received back in services.^[41] Zeihan in 2015 said that Alberta as an independent country: "Alberta as an independent country doesn’t solve a huge number of problems. If it left Canada, its currency goes through the roof because all it has is oil exports, and that would drive agriculture out of business. It would be a one-horse economy in a very short time."^[37] He said that "Seceding to the U.S. becomes the only political and economic option. If you do that, the inflation issue goes away, the tax problem goes away, the security problem goes away."^[37] In 2026 Zeihan stated that Alberta would be "screwed" if it separated from Canada and became an independent country as it would be a landlocked country and that with their primary exports being oil and grain that these are "US dollar denominated commodities" and says that if Alberta becomes independent that is "exporting for hard currency, you have an inflationary environment very, very, very quickly" and said "That it would be difficult to survive in a country that now has a very, very limited labor pool".^[42]

A September 2018 poll by Ipsos indicated that 62% of Albertans believed that Alberta "does not get its fair share from Confederation" (up from 45% in 1997), 46% felt "more attached to their province than to their country" (up from 39% in 1997), 34% "feel less committed to Canada than I did a few years ago" (up from 22% in 1997), 18% believed "the views of western Canadians are adequately represented in Ottawa" (down from 22% in 2001), and 25% believed "My province would be better off if it separated from Canada" (up from 19% in 2001).^[43][44]

A February 2019 poll from Angus Reid found 50% of Albertans would support secession from Canada but also found the likelihood that Alberta would separate to be "remote."^[45]

After Trudeau's Liberals were re-elected with a minority government in the federal election on October 21, 2019, #Wexit (a wordplay on "Brexit", the United Kingdom's departure from the European Union) trended on social media.^[46] On November 4, the separatist group "Wexit Alberta" applied for federal political party status.^[47] On November 6, a poll conducted by Ipsos showed a historic high of interest of secession from Canada in both Alberta and Saskatchewan of 33% and 27%, respectively.^[48][49] On January 12, 2020, Wexit Canada was granted eligibility for the next federal election.^[50]

A May 2020 poll by Northwest Research for Derek Fildebrandt's Western Standard found that 41% of respondents would support independence in a referendum, 50% would be opposed, and 9% were not sure.^[51] Removing undecideds, 45% would support and 55% would be opposed. Respondents were also asked if they would support a referendum if "the federal government is unwilling to negotiate with Alberta on a new constitutional arrangement": 48% said yes, while 52% said no. Support for independence was higher outside of Alberta's two biggest cities, with Edmonton being the most opposed.

Today, supporters of Alberta independence or greater separation from Canada cite economic and political reasons as their main motivations, including resource and energy management, taxation, and federal policy.^[52] Modern Alberta separatism also differs from the Quebec sovereignty movement in its partisan base. In Alberta, support comes primarily from the political right, while Quebec sovereignty has drawn support from both the left and the right. According to an Angus Reid poll, 65 percent of United Conservative Party voters would vote for separation, while 97 percent of Alberta NDP voters would vote to stay in Canada. Many Albertans polled also said they would stop supporting separation if the federal government adopted more oil-and-gas-friendly policies, such as building pipelines or repealing energy regulations. This suggests that support for Alberta separation is primarily economic, unlike the Quebec sovereignty movement.^[53]

In the lead-up to the 2025 federal election, some Alberta politicians and activists said that another Liberal Party victory after 10 years of government, would increase support for Alberta independence. The rise in support for the Liberal Party was partly a response to United States President Donald Trump's call for Canada to be annexed by the United States. Most Canadians opposed annexation, but support was higher in Alberta than in other provinces. Some Alberta residents cited stronger cultural and economic connections with the United States than with Eastern Canada.^[54]

Following the election of a minority Liberal government, Alberta's government amended the Citizen Initiative Act to make it easier for citizens to initiate referendums, including on provincial separation from Canada. The amendments lowered the participation threshold from 20 percent of eligible voters to 10 percent of votes cast in the previous election. They also extended the signature-gathering period for petitions from 90 days to 120 days.^[55][56][57] Indigenous leaders criticized the amendments and raised concerns that a separation referendum could threaten existing treaty rights.^[55] The government introduced late-stage amendments to clarify that no referendum question would be permitted to jeopardize those treaty rights.^[55]

In May 2025, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith announced that she would hold a referendum on provincial separation in 2026 if citizens gathered the required signatures on a petition.^[58] In June 2025, Alberta held three provincial by-elections. The separatist Republican Party of Alberta received 0.67 percent and 3.42 percent of the vote in two Edmonton by-elections, and 17.66 percent in Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills.^[59]

In June 2025, the separatist Alberta Prosperity Project, led by Mitch Sylvestre, submitted a referendum petition question: "Do you agree that the province of Alberta shall become a sovereign country and cease to be a province in Canada?"^[60][61] Alberta Chief Electoral Officer Gordon McClure referred the question to the Court of King's Bench of Alberta on constitutional grounds. On December 5, 2025, Justice Colin C.J. Feasby ruled that the referendum proposal violated the Constitution of Canada.^[62] The day before the judgement was released, the government tabled a bill amending the Citizen Initiative Act terminating ongoing court proceedings and removing the requirement that referendum proposals be constitutional.^[63]

Two competing referendum petitions on Alberta sovereignty followed. In August 2025, Thomas Lukaszuk launched Alberta Forever Canada, a citizen initiative opposing Alberta's separation from Canada. The proposed question asked, "Do you agree that Alberta should remain in Canada?" Lukaszuk's application cited concerns about the economic, citizenship, and treaty-rights consequences of Alberta separation. It also stated that only a minority of Albertans supported independence.^[64][65][66] Elections Alberta validated Alberta Forever Canada after it received 404,293 signatures. The government then referred the proposal to a legislative committee.^[1][67]

Stay Free Alberta launched a second petition in support of separation. The group claimed that it collected more than 301,000 signatures between January 3 and May 2, 2026, though this number has been disputed.^{[68][69][70][71]} Its proposed question asked, "Do you agree that the province of Alberta shall become a sovereign country and cease to be a province in Canada?" Sturgeon Lake Cree Nation, Athabasca Chipewyan First Nation, and the Blackfoot Confederacy challenged the petition. On May 13, 2026, Justice Shaina Leonard ruled that Elections Alberta could not certify it.^[72][73] Later that day, Premier Danielle Smith said that the government would appeal the decision.^[74]

In 2025, Danielle Smith gave Mark Carney until November 16 to fulfill nine demands, leading some to speculate separatism might be pursued by her government if talks fail.^[75]

On September 3, 2025, Parti Québécois leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon expressed support for Alberta separatism movement.^[76] Plamondon later revealed in January 2026 that he met with the leaders of the Alberta Prosperity Project in September, established a positive relationship with them and would be opened to assisting them in a referendum.^[77]

On April 20, 2026, Elections Alberta revealed that it believed that the APP violated third-party advertising laws by paying for public messaging over the province's $1,000 limit for non-registered groups and filed an injunction in March against them.^[78] On April 30, the Republican Party of Alberta along with the Centurion Project were implicated in a large privacy breach for distributing the private information of millions of Albertans. Originally, the list was given legally to the Republican Party of Alberta but ended up being hosted by the Centurion Project on a public facing website.^[79] Elections Alberta went to court and was granted an injunction that database be taken down.^[80] The Alberta RCMP launched an investigation collaborating with other law enforcement partners in the province to determine if any other laws were broken.^[80][81]

A legal challenge to the proposed referendum on separation from Canada was addressed by Alberta Justice Shaina Leonard who on 13 May 2026 ruled in favour of several First Nations whose lawyers argued that Alberta's referendum process involving its use for possible separation of Alberta from Canada has been unconstitutional because First Nations were not consulted and that separation under these circumstances would violate treaty rights.^[7] Neil Dobson, the lawyer representing Alberta, said that it was premature for the Alberta government to consult First Nations at this point because the Alberta government was not taking any action at the time to take Alberta out of Canada. Regarding a political discussion with First Nations over possible Alberta separation, he said, "The collection of signatures and the ability to put forward the petition in the first place is really the commencement of that political discussion".^[7] Jeffrey Rath of Stay Free Alberta stated that the organization is going to file an appeal.^[7] On 21 May 2026, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith responded to the ruling by announcing that Alberta will hold a referendum on whether to trigger the process for holding a binding referendum on Alberta separating from Canada.^[8]

• Alberta Prosperity Project^[82]
• Stay Free Alberta^[83]
• The Centurion Project^[84]
• Take Back Alberta^[85]

• Independence Party of Alberta^[86]
• Republican Party of Alberta (formerly the Buffalo Party of Alberta)^{[citation needed]}
• Wildrose Independence Party of Alberta (formed through a merger of the Freedom Conservative Party of Alberta and Wexit Alberta)^{[citation needed]}
• United Conservative Party of Alberta (elements)^{[citation needed]}

• Maverick Party (2020–2025)^{[citation needed]}

• Alberta 51 Project/Alberta USA Foundation (Peter Downing)^[87][88]
• Republican Party of Alberta (formerly the Buffalo Party of Alberta)

Since 2025, Alberta's independence movement has benefited from support and encouragement from the United States.

Between April 2025 and January 2026, the Alberta Prosperity Project met three times with United States Department of State officials. A joint meeting with the US State Department and United States Department of the Treasury is planned for February 2026 for a half trillion credit mechanism upon achieving independence.^{[citation needed]} Officials for the State Department and White House said these were routine meetings with civil society groups without commitments. In January 2026 Scott Bessent, the US Treasury Secretary described Albertans as "a very independent people" and that Alberta was a natural American partner.^[89] PM Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith said the United States should respect Canadian sovereignty. Carney said they "expect the US administration to respect Canadian sovereignty – I'm always clear with President Trump to that effect," while Smith said she expected US officials to leave discussions about the province's "democratic process" to Albertans and Canadians. Additionally, a spokesperson for Smith stated that "the overwhelming majority of Albertans are not interested in becoming a US state."^[90][91] Ontario Premier Doug Ford called on Smith to take a stand and declare that "enough is enough." He called the meetings "unethical" and "unacceptable".^[92][93] Jeffrey Rath, legal counsel for the Alberta Prosperity Project, stated that the group believed the US was "extremely enthusiastic" about an independent Alberta, claiming that its representatives had met with senior US officials who proceeded directly to the Oval Office following the discussions. Carlo Dade, an international policy expert at University of Calgary, remarked that "the Americans are more than happy to continue to play Canadians off each other."^[91]

On January 29, 2026, Andy Ogles, a Republican US representative, claimed that Albertans would prefer to join the United States of America rather than stay within Canada.^[94] Jeff Rath responded that joining the United States was not possible, preferring an independent Alberta with zero tariffs with the US and a single market.^[91][95] The US stated that the meetings were regular meetings that the US pursues with various civic society actors over the years and that, allegedly no official commitment to separatism had been pursued as of yet.^[1][96]

Any attempt by Alberta to secede would be governed by the federal Clarity Act and the Supreme Court of Canada's opinion in Reference re Secession of Quebec.^[97][98] Alberta would first be required to hold a province-wide referendum posing a clear question about secession. Parliament would then decide whether the question and any resulting majority met the threshold for negotiations to begin.^[99][100]

The Clarity Act sets no numerical threshold for a "clear majority," leaving that determination to Parliament based on factors such as turnout, the size of the majority, and the broader political context.^[10]

In the Quebec Secession Reference, the Supreme Court held that a clear majority on a clear question would create a mutual obligation on all parties to the Canadian Confederation to negotiate constitutional changes, but found that no province has a unilateral right to secede — and that any negotiations must respect the Constitution of Canada, including the rights and interests of indigenous peoples in Canada and the protection of minorities.^{[9][101][102]}

There is considerable First Nations opposition to Alberta separation. Alberta is covered by five Numbered Treaties between First Nations and the Crown (i.e., the Canadian state) which were agreed to before Alberta became a province.

The Confederacy of Treaty No. 6 First Nations stated that Alberta separation would be unconstitutional, illegal, and a threat to the treaties. It made the statement in solidarity with other First Nations in Alberta, including First Nations under Treaty 7 and Treaty 8.^[103] The Confederacy's claims are that separation and the proposed referendum threatens and violates Aboriginal and treaty rights protected under section 35 of the Constitution Act, 1982.^[103] The Confederacy stated that it would continue opposing the Alberta government and the Alberta Prosperity Project over the proposed separation referendum; and reinforced that treaties are not only historical documents, but living agreements that bind all parties.^[103]

Some economists have warned that separatist discourse could discourage investment in Alberta and make energy infrastructure negotiations more difficult.^[104] Retired McGill University economist Reuven Brenner compared the movement to Quebec separatism, which contributed to major companies and thousands of residents leaving Quebec.^[105] Trevor Tombe, a professor of economics at the University of Calgary estimates separation would reduce Alberta's economic activity by $20 billion (roughly $3,900 per Albertan), and make Alberta's economy $30 billion smaller.^[106][107] Economist Claude Lavoie notes that although an independent Alberta would collect its own taxes, it would also pay more per capita for services currently provided by the federal government, including national defense, embassies, border control, employment insurance, old age security and the criminal justice system.^[108] Lavoie argued that separation would weaken Alberta's trade position because an independent Alberta would not automatically inherit Canada's trade relationships with other countries.^[108]

In March 2026, the Calgary Chamber of Commerce released a poll of Calgary businesses on the economic effects of separatist discourse. The poll found that 83 percent of respondents believed the discourse increased the risk of recession and reduced business investment. It also found that 74 percent believed businesses were considering relocation or expansion outside Alberta; 71 percent believed the discourse made it harder to attract workers; 60 percent believed it made trade or business expansion with other provinces more difficult; and 56 percent believed the discourse was affecting Alberta's economy.^[109][110]

After the 2025 federal election, a website known as albertaseparatist.com appeared alongside a YouTube and TikTok account using the same name. Investigators later found that a Russian covert influence network, Storm-1516, created the website and social media accounts. Storm-1516 has created fictional websites that target audiences in several countries.^[111]

A joint report by the Global Centre for Democratic Resilience, the Centre for Artificial Intelligence, Data and Conflict, and DisinfoWatch stated that "Russian-aligned information infrastructure" and other social media accounts used Albertan grievances to promote separatist narratives and undermine Canada's democratic integrity, national security, and cognitive sovereignty.^[112][113]

After the Liberal Party of Canada won a minority government in the October 21, 2019, federal election, #Wexit trended on social media. The term was a wordplay on "Brexit," the name used for the United Kingdom's departure from the European Union.^[46] Hill+Knowlton's analysis attributed part of the online activity to disinformation and bots.^[114][115] In April 2026, the Canadian Digital Media Research Network identified roughly 20 YouTube channels as part of a coordinated network that promoted separatism in western Canadian provinces through slopaganda.^[116][117] CBC News later traced some of these accounts to three individuals in the Netherlands who hired actors to appear on the YouTube channels.^[116]

A non-binding October 2026 referendum will ask voters whether Alberta should begin the legal process for an actual independence referendum.

Date(s) conducted	Yes	No	Lead (pp)	Sample	Conducted by	Polling type	Margin of error	Notes
May 22–24, 2026	35%	60%	25	800	Angus Reid[118]	Online	±3%	Not Sure 5%
May 21, 2026	Alberta Premier Danielle Smith announces the referendum on a televised address

Date(s) conducted	Yes (Separate)	No (Remain)	Undecided[a]	Lead (pp)	Sample	Conducted by	Polling type	Margin of error	Notes
May 22–24, 2026	30%	67%	3%	37	800	Angus Reid[118]	Online	±3%
April 20–22, 2026	28.1%	60.1%	11.8%	32.0	3,129	Mainstreet Research[119]	IVR	±1.8%
April 7–22, 2026	27%	67%	6%	40	1,200	Janet Brown Opinion Research[120]	Telephone/online	±2.8%
April 2–6, 2026	17%	71%	12%	54	531	Spark Insights[121]	Online
March 2–4, 2026	29%	64%	7%	35	1,003	Léger[122]	Online	±3.1%	Independent country 23% Join USA 6%
March 16–25, 2026	25%	69%	6%	44	3,200	Pollara[123]	Online	±1.7%
March 2–4, 2026	21%	70%	9%	49	1,001	Léger[124]	Online	±3.1%	Independent country 17%; Join USA 4%
February 20–25, 2026	26%	64%	9%	38	1,000	Abacus[125]	Online	±3.1%	Of Remain: 56% strongly, 9% somewhat Of Leave: 13% strongly, 13% somewhat
February 2–6, 2026	29%	65%	5%	34	979	Angus Reid[126]	Online	±3%	Of Remain: 57% strongly, 8% leaning; Of Leave: 8% strongly, 21% leaning.
January 23–26, 2026	23%	71%	6%	48	1,003	Léger[127]	Online	±3.1%	Independent country 18%; Join USA 5%
January 9–14, 2026	28%	72%	12%	44	500	Ipsos[128][129]	Online	±5.4%
January 4–6, 2026	31%	62%	7%	31	703	Research Co.[130]	Online	±3.7%
December 5–20, 2025	19%	75%	6%	56	1,000	Pollara[131][132]	Online	±3.1%
September 5–22, 2025	41%	52%	5%	11	1,044	Ekos Politics[133]	Online	±2.2%	Poll asked: I think my province would be better off as an independent country.
May 15–21, 2025	18%	69%	13%	51	400	Abacus[134]	Online	±5.0%
May 7–21, 2025	28%	67%	5%	40	1,200	Janet Brown Opinion Research[135]	Telephone/online	±2.8%
May 16–21, 2025	22%	68%		46	500	Pollara[136]	Online	±4.4%
May 16–18, 2025	47%	48%	5%	1	171	Léger[137]	Online		Of Remain: 38% strongly, 10% somewhat Of Leave: 29% strongly, 18% somewhat
May 6–15, 2025	45%	55%		10	810	Kolosowski Strategies[138]	Online	±3%
May 9–12, 2025	29%	67%		38	1,000	Léger[139]	Online	±3%
May 6–8, 2025	38%	62%		24	790	Angus Reid[140]	Online	±3%
The Liberal Party of Canada is elected a fourth consecutive term in the 2025 Canadian federal election (April 28, 2025)
April 10–14, 2025	29%	71%		42	301	Léger[141]	Online	±6%
March 21, 2025	30%	69%		39		Mainstreet Research[142]	Online
March 20–24, 2025	25%	75%		50	600	Angus Reid[143]	Online	±4%
March 18, 2025	25%	56%		31	1,228	Mainstreet Research[144]	Online	±3%
The United Conservative Party (UCP) led by Danielle Smith is elected a 2nd term in the 2023 Alberta general election (May 29, 2023)
Jun 10–12, 2023	24%	76%		52	800	Research Co.[145]	Online	±3%
Aug 21–23, 2022	25%	75%		50	700	Research Co.[146]	Online	±4%
October 13, 2021	40%	45%		5	935	Mainstreet Research[147]	Online	±3%
The Liberal Party of Canada is elected a third consecutive term in the 2021 Canadian federal election (September 20, 2021)
Feb 7–9, 2021	27%	73%		46	600	Research Co.[148]	Online	±4%
May 14–19, 2020	45%	55%		10	1,094	Northwest Research[149]		±3%
Dec 18–20, 2019	42%	58%		16		Research Co.[150]	Online		Sample size was 1,000 for all of Canada
Nov 12–17, 2019	25%	75%		50		Abacus[151]	Online		Sample size was 3,000 for all of Canada
Oct 24 – November 1, 2019	38%	62%		24	250	Ipsos[152]	Online	±6%
The Liberal Party of Canada is elected a second consecutive term in the 2019 Canadian federal election (October 21, 2019)
The United Conservative Party (UCP) led by Jason Kenney is elected in the 2019 Alberta general election (April 16, 2019)
Sep 11–17, 2018	25%	75%		50	400	Ipsos[153]	Online	±5%

• Quebec sovereignty movement
• 1995 Quebec referendum
• 51st State#Alberta
• Pro-Americanism
• Athabasca oil sands
• Movements for an American annexation of Canada
• Cascadia movement
• List of political parties in Alberta
• Politics of Alberta
• Politics of Montana
• Secessionist movements of Canada
• Western alienation
• Western Canada Concept
• Anti-Canadian sentiment
• Jordan Cove Energy Project and Alaska LNG