Our view to 2050
Key takeaways
All energy types are needed for a more prosperous, lower-emission future.
- Renewables grow the fastest
- Coal declines the most
- Oil & natural gas still make up more than half of the global energy mix
Rising living standards increase energy use 25% in developing countries.
- Half the world’s population currently lacks the energy needed to address basic human needs.
Industry and transport underpin the global economy and will require growing supplies of energy.
Global CO2 emissions fall 25%; affordability will drive the pace of any transition.
Sustained oil and natural gas investment is more important than ever.
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Developing countries projected to use 25% more energy as living standards improve
>4 billion people currently live in countries where access to energy is below what is needed to address basic human development needs.
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Industry and commercial transportation drive economic growth
These sectors, which make up ~65% of global energy use, have unique needs that cannot be fully replaced with electricity or renewables.
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CO2 emissions projected to fall 25% by 2050, but more progress is needed
- Efficiency improvements and renewables are necessary but not a complete solution.
- Technologies like hydrogen, carbon capture and storage, and biofuels have yet to reach their full potential but are needed to reduce emissions on a global scale.
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Affordability will drive the pace of any energy transition
Sustained economic growth and continued innovation to reduce costs for key technologies are essential for improving affordability.
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All energy types will be needed
Under any credible scenario, oil and gas remain essential.
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Sustained oil and gas investment is more important than ever
Oil and natural gas supply from producing wells naturally declines over time, which requires investment in new and existing fields to meet demand across scenarios.
Explore the Global Outlook
Report •
4 min read
• Aug. 28, 2025
Developing countries projected to use 25% more energy as living standards improve
- >4 billion people currently live in countries where access to energy is below what is needed to address basic human development needs.
- Access to sufficient, affordable energy enables economic development.
- Efficiency gains from new technology help slow energy growth from rising prosperity and a growing population.
Report •
4 min read
• Aug. 28, 2025
Industry and commercial transportation drive economic growth
- Industry and manufacturing are critical to the global economy and modern living standards.
- Global commerce relies on efficiently moving goods and services across and between continents.
- These sectors, which make up ~65% of global energy use, have unique needs that cannot be fully met with electricity or renewables.
Report •
3 min read
• Aug. 28, 2025
CO₂ emissions fall 25% by 2050, but more progress is needed
- Efficiency improvements and renewables are necessary but not a complete solution.
- Technologies like hydrogen, carbon capture and storage, and biofuels have yet to reach their full potential but are needed to reduce emissions on a global scale.
- With the right policies and technology advancements, these solutions can help society move closer to achieving its climate goals.
- There are multiple potential emissions pathways to achieve society’s climate goals, giving policy makers an opportunity to balance affordability and emissions reduction.
Report •
5 min read
• Aug. 28, 2025
Affordability will drive the pace of any energy transition
- The cost of energy and essential products borne by consumers will be a critical factor in the pace of any energy transition.
- Lower-emissions solutions are generally more expensive and not affordable for many consumers, especially in developing economies with lower disposable income.
- Sustained economic growth and continued innovation to reduce costs for key technologies are essential for improving affordability.
Report •
2 min read
• Aug. 28, 2025
All energy types will be needed
- Oil is projected to remain the largest source of primary energy, as it is essential for industrial manufacturing, including as a raw material, and commercial transportation.
- Natural gas demand is projected to rise, largely to help meet increasing needs for electricity and lower-emission industrial heat.
- Lower-emission energy sources, including solar, wind, and biofuels, are expected to have the fastest rate of increase.
- By 2050, the world is expected to use 35% less coal than it does today as lower-emission sources meet an increasing share of rising demand in the developing world.
Report •
4 min read
• Aug. 28, 2025
Sustained oil and gas investment is more important than ever
- Oil and natural gas supply from producing wells naturally declines over time, which requires investment in new and existing fields to meet demand across scenarios.
- Technology is a key enabler for improved recovery from both new and existing fields.
- LNG market projected to double by 2050 as global gas demand grows.
Report •
5 min read
• Aug. 28, 2025
About the ExxonMobil Global Outlook
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3 min read
• Aug. 28, 2025
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2 min read
• Aug. 28, 2025
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5 min read
• Aug. 28, 2025
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