Toyota Mirai Hydrogen Car Depreciation: 65% Value Loss in a Year

The story of hydrogen propulsion in the automotive world has always been a convoluted one. Infrastructure difficulties and the rise of competitors – most notably battery-electric power – have made it extremely difficult for hydrogen to ever properly take hold. Despite these struggles, some hydrogen-powered models are still circulating on both the new and used car market.

One such model is the Toyota Mirai, the first and perhaps the most famous hydrogen-powered production car in existence. The Mirai is still being built today, but has faced several struggles which meant that even very recent used examples are catastrophically depreciating. Let’s take a closer look at this phenomenon, the reasons behind it, and the Mirai model as a whole.

The Toyota Mirai: An Overview

The Toyota Mirai was the first mass-produced hydrogen fuel cell vehicle to be released on the market. The model’s first generation made its debut in late 2014, going on sale for the 2015 model year. The first-gen Mirai was fitted with one electric motor, powered by what the company dubbed the Toyota Fuel Cell System (TFCS). This system was made up of proprietary components developed in-house by Toyota, including the fuel cell itself and the hydrogen tanks.

In 2020 a second generation of the Mirai was introduced, going on sale for the 2021 model year. This generation brought several powertrain and tech updates, such as an increased hydrogen capacity that results in a 30% increase in driving range. More advanced driver assistance and safety features were added, and in 2023 the infotainment system was given an update. The new Mirai also brought some minor styling updates, although the car’s silhouette is broadly similar to that of the first-gen model.

The second-gen Mirai is also powered by one electric motor fed by a hydrogen fuel cell. This time, power output increased by 30 hp (from 152 to 182 hp), while torque decreased slightly, from 247 to 220 lb-ft. Both models are equipped with a single-speed transmission.

The Mirai's Pricing On The Used Market

The Mirai has experienced extremely rapid depreciation. Looking at its price range on the used market today, the difference compared to prices when new – even for models only a couple of years old – is staggering. The 2021 model year, which ushered in the second generation, had a starting price of $49,500; all subsequent model years sat just above the $50,000 mark.

Even if we limit our search to examples from the model’s current generation, we can still find several cars being offered for less than $10,000 (while still keeping within a five-figure mileage). The most expensive used second-gen cars hover around the $22,000 mark.

Examples of last year’s model, which had a starting price of $50,190, can now be found on sale for between $15,000 and $18,000, with mileage numbers that in any other car would not warrant this level of depreciation. It is clear that, when it comes to the Mirai, other, unique factors are at play: the Mirai’s depreciation is symbolic of hydrogen’s downward trajectory in the American and global automotive landscape.

Why Mirai Values Have Tanked

Toyota may still consider the Mirai to be a viable model, but its place on the used market makes it clear that consumers’ opinion is going in a different direction. The Mirai’s value has dropped dramatically due to a combination of factors, most of which have to do with its unconventional method of propulsion and the pitfalls associated with it.

We start with the Mirai’s geographical limitations. The vehicle is only available for purchase in California, as that is the only state that currently offers enough hydrogen fueling infrastructure to support Mirai ownership. Although, in the past, it looked like hydrogen infrastructure may have expanded into other areas of the country, today that possibility looks unlikely to become a reality. The rise of battery electric vehicles as the dominant form of green transport has limited hydrogen’s potential for growth. As a result, the Mirai no longer seems to be the attractive, future-ready purchase it might have previously been.

Due to the uniqueness and rarity of the Mirai’s powertrain, prospective buyers are also more likely to be wary of buying a used example. Used cars are already known for being potential reliability time-bombs, depending on factors such as their condition and mileage; for a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle this is doubly true, as maintenance is more likely to be more complex and specialized and replacement parts are scarce.

Almost No Investment In Hydrogen Infrastructure

The chief reason behind the Mirai’s depreciation – and the wider struggle faced by all hydrogen vehicles in today’s automotive market – is the lack of infrastructure. Hydrogen has fallen behind other “green” sources of power, and battery electric vehicles have taken over as the main alternative to combustion. The US has just 54 hydrogen filling stations, all of which are located in California. Expansion of this limited network could come through government investment, however the US government is prioritizing BEVs.

Over the past four years, the number of accessible EV charging ports in the US has doubled; this number is set to climb even further as in January this year, the government announced $635 million would be invested in the US’ renewable energy network. For comparison, hydrogen infrastructure is getting an investment of just $80 million, $55 million of which is confined to California.

A single new hydrogen station is currently being built in California, and instead of being oriented towards passenger cars it will exclusively serve medium and large semi-trucks, which means potential new hydrogen car owners are left out. Another station is being built in Texas, but this will also cater exclusively to commercial vehicles rather than private ones.

Some existing hydrogen filling stations are even getting shut down, which further complicates the situation for anyone looking to buy a Mirai or another hydrogen vehicle. Looking at the combinations of all these factors, it’s no wonder that Mirais are practically being given away on the used market, as their pool of potential buyers is an extremely limited one.

It is clear that the government and the automotive industry are focusing on battery-electric vehicles as the green option of the future (and the present); hydrogen is on track to remain the preserve of a few dedicated fans, with little enthusiasm from the mainstream car world.

There's A Better Alternative Fuel Available

As we've already discussed, the government isn't investing in hydrogen fueling stations, and that's arguably this alternative fuel's biggest downfall. But there is another way, and it doesn't require the existing fuel network to be upgraded entirely.

We're talking about synthetic fuel, which only has two downsides at the moment. First, it's expensive to make, and the demand is far more than factories can supply. But these are teething problems with any new technology. HIF, the self-proclaimed global leader in fuels and Porsche's official synthetic fuel partner, will have a synthetic fuel plant operational in the USA in 2027. It will produce enough fuel to power 400,000 vehicles, which is still just a tiny percentage of cars, but it's a start.

If more of these factories are built, the cost per gallon will inevitably go down, and the supply will eventually meet demand. Will this happen soon? Nope. Like hydrogen, the government doesn't appear to be interested in making life easier for synthetic fuel plants, even though it means you can hold on to your V8 and not feel guilty about it.

What's Next For Hydrogen Cars?

Although the world of hydrogen-powered vehicles is unlikely to see much expansion in the coming years, automakers are still curious about its potential, and some brands are persevering in the research and development of hydrogen powertrains.

Not only is Toyota still producing the Mirai, the Japanese automaker has also re-affirmed its commitment to hydrogen propulsion with the introduction of a new project. A US-based “North American Hydrogen Headquarters” (H2HQ) was set up by Toyota last year, creating a dedicated space for research and development of hydrogen propulsion. The company is continuing to work in several different directions when it comes to powertrain options, offering the Mirai alongside BEVs and hybrids. The Mirai is still available as a 2026 model, and Toyota keeps on offering incentives to make it more appealing. Despite that, it only managed to sell 210 units in the USA last year.

Other brands are still clinging to the hydrogen wagon as well: BMW has been testing a hydrogen-powered prototype SUV called the iX5, with plans to release a production model in around three years’ time. Toyota is collaborating with BMW on this project, offering its established hydrogen expertise.

The long-term prospects of hydrogen power may not be all that rosy, but at least for now, hydrogen is not quite dead. Even as the automotive world embraces electrification, there is always room for research into alternative methods of propulsion, and hydrogen still has some potential to fulfill.

Sources: Toyota, US Department of Transportation