Retail Sales vs S&P 500 (source: FRED)
Retail sales growth is slowing while equities rally, indicating the S&P 500 rally is not driven by consumer strength but by tech/AI hype and multiple expansion.
As of late 2025, the gap between equity valuations and real-world economic indicators has never been wider.
Manufacturing, Mining, Utilities vs S&P 500 (source: FRED)
Manufacturing and mining are cyclical and commodity-sensitive, while utilities are defensive. The S&P 500's outperformance is driven by tech concentration, not broad-based industrial strength.
Construction Spending vs S&P 500 (source: FRED)
Construction data suggests the economy is cooling.
Bank Credit vs S&P 500 (source: FRED)
Equity valuations outpacing credit expansion.