“It is likely that these observations represent changes in the actor’s tradecraft and possible experimentation following widespread disclosures of previous incidents,” Burt wrote. In other words, this could be a pivot after their SolarWinds cover was blown.
But the tactics in this latest phishing campaign also reflect Nobelium’s general practice of establishing access on one system or account and then using it to gain access to others and leapfrog to numerous targets. It’s a spy agency; this is what it does as a matter of course.
“If this happened pre-SolarWinds we wouldn’t have thought anything about it. It’s only the context of SolarWinds that makes us see it differently,” says Jason Healey, a former Bush White House staffer and current cyberconflict researcher at Columbia University. “Let’s say this incident happens in 2019 or 2020, I don’t think anyone is going to blink an eye at this.”
As Microsoft points out, there’s also nothing unexpected about Russian spies, and Nobelium in particular, targeting government agencies, USAID in particular, NGOs, think tanks, research groups, or military and IT service contractors.
“NGOs and DC think tanks have been high-value soft targets for decades,” says one former Department of Homeland Security cybersecurity consultant. “And it’s an open secret in the incident response world that USAID and the State Department are a mess of unaccountable, subcontracted IT networks and infrastructure. In the past, some of those systems were compromised for years.“
Especially compared to the scope and sophistication of the SolarWinds breach, a widespread phishing campaign feels almost like a downshift. It’s also important to remember that the impacts of SolarWinds remain ongoing; even after months of publicity about the incident, it’s likely that Nobelium still haunts at least some of the systems it compromised during that effort.
“I’m sure that they’ve still got accesses in some places from the SolarWinds campaign,” FireEye’s Hultquist says. “The main thrust of the activity has been diminished, but they’re very likely lingering on in several places.”
Which is just the reality of digital espionage. It doesn’t stop and start based on public shaming. Nobelium’s activity is certainly unwelcome, but it doesn’t in itself portend some great escalation.
Additional reporting by Andy Greenberg. This story originally appeared on wired.com.