The consumer space and enterprise are not cleanly separated discrete markets. One influences the other…
The naive response to this is to say that it doesn’t matter; Microsoft understands, after all, that Windows is in a difficult position, and that’s why the company is prioritizing the cloud and its enterprise offerings. But this ignores the interconnectedness both of Microsoft’s offerings, and of Google’s.
Those Chrome OS users likely aren’t just using Chrome OS, after all. They’re probably also using Google Apps. Mainstream productivity, one of Microsoft’s major cash cows, is being handled by Google’s online services—maybe not for every student, every time, but for a chunk of them. That preference, too, will only spread: no longer tied to the desktop Office apps, Office 365 becomes much less appealing or interesting, and Google’s suite will be the one with the familiarity and experience edge. Key elements of Microsoft’s cloud business will be undermined, so it’s not just Windows that loses out. The contagion likely spreads beyond, too: Microsoft’s reduced visibility can only make selling other cloud services such as Azure that bit harder.
The consumer space and enterprise are not cleanly separated discrete markets. One influences the other, and the loss of mindshare on one side can diminish reach on the other side.
Thus far Microsoft’s main response appears to have been Windows 10 S Mode, running on netbook-priced PCs, and perhaps the Surface Go (though a Surface Go with a keyboard cover is much more expensive than the cheap Chromebooks, and starting to rival these more expensive ones). But Windows itself remains a liability in this regard. Windows 10 S machines simply aren’t as tightly restricted as Chrome OS systems. They have more ways to go wrong.
For now, Chrome OS’s success seems limited and fairly US-centric. If it remains that way, then the knock-on effects in both consumer and enterprise spaces should be reduced. Nonetheless, this kind of development isn’t just bad news for Microsoft’s position in the consumer market; it’s bad news across Microsoft’s entire business.