Tracking predictions from the AI 2027 scenario against reality.
Predictions Confirmed
16/31
53 total tracked
Speed Ratio
0.70×
~70% of predicted pace
Overall Assessment
Mixed
Directionally plausible, uneven pace
Scenario Speed Ratio
Reality is progressing at ~70% of AI 2027's predicted pace
0× 0.70× Current 1.0×
Status Breakdown
16 Confirmed
3 Ahead
8 On Track
4 Behind
13 Emerging
9 Not Yet Testable
Visual Overview
Status Distribution
Category Coverage
By Category
Recently Updated
Current Assessment
August 2026 Summary
The tracker remains mixed, with the status distribution unchanged. Infrastructure spending, data-center construction, coding tools, computer use, cyber evaluations, and restricted frontier access continue to move quickly. These areas support the scenario's broad direction, while leaving several numeric thresholds and causal claims unresolved.
The central test is still the AI R&D feedback loop. Independent shadow evaluations found that agents completed engineering work in two six-day AI research projects but did not make substantial progress on the central research questions. This cautions against treating coding throughput as evidence of a lab-wide research multiplier, although two cases cannot establish the population rate.
Bottom line: keep the overall assessment and approximate 0.70× speed ratio unchanged. The portfolio is strongest on capability deployment and physical investment. The transition from engineering automation to measured, compounding research acceleration remains unverified.