How Much U.S. Population Growth Comes From Immigration
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Key Takeaways
- Immigration accounted for 81% of U.S. population growth from 2021–2025.
- In 14 states, it drove 100% of growth, fully offsetting domestic losses.
- Without immigration, many states would be shrinking in population.
Immigration is now the primary engine of U.S. population growth, and in some places, the only one.
From 2021 to 2025, over four out of every five new U.S. residents came from international migration, according to data from the Harvard University Joint Center for Housing Studies. In 14 states, immigration accounted for 100% of population gains, meaning growth would have been negative without it.
This map shows how much each state relies on immigration, revealing a divide between states gaining residents organically and those sustained almost entirely by global inflows.
Where Immigration Is the Only Source of Growth
In many states, population growth depends entirely on immigration.
This table shows immigration’s share of population change by state from 2021–2025. If immigration exceeds total population growth, the share is capped at 100%:
| State | Net International Immigration’s Share of Population Growth 2021–2025 | Total Population Change 2021-2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Alaska | 100% | 4,364 |
| Connecticut | 100% | 108,853 |
| District of Columbia | 100% | 22,687 |
| Kansas | 100% | 38,946 |
| Maryland | 100% | 86,960 |
| Massachusetts | 100% | 168,764 |
| Michigan | 100% | 55,590 |
| New Jersey | 100% | 277,739 |
| New Mexico | 100% | 7,052 |
| Ohio | 100% | 101,976 |
| Oregon | 100% | 30,042 |
| Pennsylvania | 100% | 63,856 |
| Rhode Island | 100% | 18,034 |
| Vermont | 100% | 1,698 |
| Iowa | 95% | 47,306 |
| Wisconsin | 89% | 75,416 |
| Virginia | 85% | 242,804 |
| Kentucky | 83% | 98,593 |
| Minnesota | 81% | 119,843 |
| Washington | 81% | 274,208 |
| Nebraska | 74% | 54,688 |
| North Dakota | 66% | 19,746 |
| Indiana | 64% | 183,043 |
| Florida | 60% | 1,871,193 |
| Missouri | 60% | 115,467 |
| Colorado | 58% | 225,688 |
| Maine | 42% | 50,328 |
| Nevada | 42% | 165,337 |
| Georgia | 41% | 570,153 |
| Texas | 41% | 2,471,926 |
| Arizona | 37% | 437,171 |
| Alabama | 34% | 160,126 |
| New Hampshire | 33% | 36,590 |
| Oklahoma | 33% | 158,045 |
| Utah | 33% | 254,934 |
| Arkansas | 32% | 100,392 |
| North Carolina | 31% | 747,753 |
| Tennessee | 30% | 387,340 |
| Delaware | 29% | 68,062 |
| South Dakota | 27% | 47,286 |
| Wyoming | 24% | 11,084 |
| South Carolina | 20% | 438,282 |
| Idaho | 13% | 180,405 |
| Montana | 8% | 57,538 |
| California | N/A (Population Decline) | -172,499 |
| Hawaii | N/A (Population Decline) | -18,310 |
| Illinois | N/A (Population Decline) | -76,207 |
| Louisiana | N/A (Population Decline) | -33,956 |
| Mississippi | N/A (Population Decline) | -4,225 |
| New York | N/A (Population Decline) | -119,835 |
| West Virginia | N/A (Population Decline) | -25,523 |
Florida and Texas led the nation in population growth, but for different reasons. Both gained more than one million international migrants between 2021 and 2025.
But their growth drivers differ. Florida combined strong immigration with large domestic inflows, despite negative natural change. Texas saw growth across all fronts, including a strong natural increase.
This contrast highlights a broader trend. While every state recorded net international migration during this period, many also faced domestic outflows or aging populations. In fact, 25 states saw net domestic outflows, while 21 recorded more deaths than births, making immigration the decisive factor separating growth from decline.
Texas added over 691,000 people through natural growth alone, more than California and New York combined.
When Growth Isn’t Enough: The California Example
California highlights the imbalance: despite nearly one million international arrivals and more births than deaths, the state still saw overall population decline driven by domestic outflows.
Seven states in total lost population over this period, underscoring how internal migration can outweigh both natural change and immigration.
The Future of Immigration and U.S. Population Growth
A sharp slowdown could reshape this map.
In 2026, U.S. immigration is expected to fall to 321,000, less than a fifth of the level seen in 2025. At the same time, natural population change is projected to remain flat.
For states highly dependent on immigration, this may mean slower growth or even population decline.
Over the past five years, six states, including Oregon and Michigan, experienced both domestic outmigration and negative natural change, leaving immigration as their primary source of growth.
States where immigration plays the largest role in population gains are also the most exposed to a slowdown, with potential ripple effects across:
- Tax receipts
- Consumer spending
- Housing demand
- Labor force growth
As natural growth fades, migration, both domestic and international, will determine which states continue to grow and which begin to fall behind.
Learn More on the Voronoi App 
To learn more about this topic, check out this graphic on America’s fastest-growing states from 2025 to 2050.
