ISM Data Signals Return to Growth is Near

Since December you have read here that a return to growth by Independence Day 2009 was likely.

The March ISM Manufacturing data gave us the first opportunity to start plotting a trend line that supported that July 4 call by Professor Hirschey. For years the ISM has correlated their manufacturing index to overall economic growth. When their index exceeds 43, the overall economy is likely to be growing. When the index is above 50, not only is the overall economy growing but there is likely a return to growth in the manufacturing sector.

Given the ISM report on Friday, the ISM index trend continues to point to growth resuming around fireworks day with the manufacturing sector back on track by the end of the year.