Windows phone is a great product that’s failed to gain any traction in the marketplace. I believe that the Samsung Focus is the 3rd best phone on the market (behind the two iPhones for sale). However, like Palm before it, it doesn’t seem to matter.
A simple explanation would be that I’m wrong - the market picks the best products and the market is screaming failure for the Microsoft phone.
What I don’t think is responsible for the lack of traction:
Apps. Some of our industry luminaries have said it’s all about apps. Beyond a minimal threshold (which Palm never made) I don’t think this is true. You need the services you use to make apps (Netflix etc), and you need a set of reasonable alternatives for the types of things you’ve . Microsoft’s deep pockets have provided the incentive the numbers of shipped phones hasn’t.
User experience. While I don’t like the Windows phone’s UI as much as my iPhone, but I can see how someone would prefer it. What I see as lack of polish doesn’t matter to some people. They might really care about being able to glance at their phones and see where their next meeting is, take a photo quickly or always be one tap away from calling someone they care about. I have to take my hat off to the guys working on the Windows phone - they’ve delivered a solid experience that is genuinely different from the other offerings. It’s not just me that thinks so either - the few people that are using Windows Phone 7 are really happy with their phones.
Segmentation. The idea of having an Android phone - let alone developing for them - makes my skin crawl. With no turnkey place to get apps, a litany of devices each with different OS versions available and different carrier restrictions. I’m sure I’d have a terrible experience choosing, and then using an Android phone. However, for reasons I don’t understand, this hasn’t prevented Android from gaining traction. I don’t think the variety of Windows phones is holding them back.
What is it then?
Momentum. Despite being in the smart phone game before the market existed, Microsoft is way behind and maybe this is only a 2-3 player game. People don’t like choices when they don’t have the tools to make an evaluation. With PCs we had megahertz, with cameras we had mega pixels but there just isn’t something similar with phones anymore. People’s phone purchases will boil down to personal preferences like cars, clothes and wine.
Phone companies hedging. Hardware manufacturers don’t believe Microsoft will gain share. I wouldn’t either. Just look at the Samsung site for the Galaxy compared with the Focus - they don’t have two feet in the water. Nokia was supposed to come on board after the joint announcement, but then they announce the N9 running MeeGo?
Marketing: Not having cable, reading printed magazines or going to any big web portals I’m probably not the best person to evaluate this, but I don’t think Microsoft is going all-out promoting the phone. Aside from people linking to stuff internally I haven’t been touched by Microsoft marketing at all.
Brand perception. I don’t believe the Windows brand has ever really held any water in the consumer space. There are XBox gamers, SQL server gurus and NT administrators but there isn’t strong brand attachment with Windows. In the 90s you bought a PC because that was the safe thing to do, they were way cheaper and everyone around you was doing it - not because you gave a shit about Windows.
Disclaimer: I work at Microsoft.. but not on the phone.
Feel free to tell me I’m an idiot in the comments.