Climatic Consequences of Nuclear Conflict

8 min read Original article ↗
  • Robock, Alan, Lili Xia, Cheryl S. Harrison, Joshua Coupe, Owen B. Toon, and Charles G. Bardeen, 2023: Opinion: How nuclear winter has saved the world, so far. Atm. Chem. Phys., 23, 6691-6701, doi:10.5194/acp-23-6691-2023.   PDF file

  • Coupe, Joshua, Cheryl Harrison, Alan Robock, Alice DuVivier, Elizabeth Maroon, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Scott Bachman, Laura Landrum, and Charles Bardeen, 2023: Sudden reduction of Antarctic sea ice despite cooling after nuclear war. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 128, e2022JC018774, doi:10.1029/2022JC018774.  PDF file

  • Xia, Lili, Alan Robock, Kim Scherrer, Cheryl S. Harrison, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Isabelle Weindl, Jonas Jägermeyr, Charles G. Bardeen, Owen B. Toon, and Ryan Heneghan, 2022: Global food insecurity and famine from reduced crop, marine fishery and livestock production due to climate disruption from nuclear war soot injection. Nature Food, 3, 586-596, doi:10.1038/s43016-022-00573-0.  PDF file

  • Harrison, Cheryl S., Tyler Rohr, Alice DuVivier, Elizabeth A. Maroon, Scott Bachman, Charles G. Bardeen, Joshua Coupe, Victoria Garza, Ryan Heneghan, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Philipp Neubauer, Victor Rangel, Alan Robock, Kim Scherrer, Samantha Stevenson, and Owen B. Toon, 2022: A new ocean state after nuclear war. AGU Advances, 3, e2021AV000610, doi:10.1029/2021AV000610.    PDF file

  • Hochman, Gal, Hainan Zhang, Lili Xia, Alan Robock, Saketh Aleti, Dominique Y. van der Mensbrugghe, and Jonas Jägermeyr, 2022: Economic incentives modify agricultural impacts of nuclear war. Env. Res. Lett., 17, 054003, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac61c7.    PDF file

  • Yu, Pengfei, Sean M. Davis, Owen B. Toon, Robert W. Portmann, Charles G. Bardeen, John E. Barnes, Hagen Telg, Christopher Maloney, Karen H. Rosenlof, 2021: Persistent stratospheric warming due to 2019-20 Australian wildfire smoke, Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2021GL092609, doi:10.1029/2021GL092609.   PDF file

  • Bardeen, Charles G., Douglas E. Kinnison, Owen B. Toon, Michael J. Mills, Francis Vitt, Lili Xia, Jonas Jägermeyr, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Kim J. N. Scherrer, Margot Clyne, and Alan Robock, 2021: Extreme ozone loss following nuclear war resulting in enhanced surface ultraviolet radiation. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 126, e2021JD035079, doi:10.1029/2021JD035079.   PDF file

  • Redfern, S., Lundquist, J. K., Toon, O. B., Muñoz-Esparza, D., Bardeen, C. G., & Kosović, B, 2021: Upper troposphere smoke injection from large areal fires. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 126, e2020JD034332, doi:10.1029/2020JD034332.   PDF file

  • Coupe, Joshua, and Alan Robock, 2021: The influence of stratospheric soot and sulfate aerosols on the Northern Hemisphere wintertime atmospheric circulation. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 126, e2020JD034513, doi:10.1029/2020JD034513.   PDF file

  • Coupe, Joshua, Samantha Stevenson, Nicole S. Lovenduski, Tyler Rohr, Cheryl S. Harrison, Alan Robock, Holly Olivarez, Charles G. Bardeen, and Owen B. Toon, 2021: Nuclear Niño response observed in simulations of nuclear war scenarios. Communications Earth & Environment, 2, 18, doi:10.1038/s43247-020-00088-1.     PDF file

  • Frishcosy, Christopher Cole, Yao Wang, and Yunping Xi, 2021: A novel approach to estimate fuel energy from urban areas. Energy and Buildings, 231, 110609, doi:10.1016/j.enbuild.2020.110609.  PDF file

  • Scherrer, Kim J. N., Cheryl S. Harrison, Ryan F. Heneghan, Eric Galbraith, Charles G. Bardeen, Joshua Coupe, Jonas Jägermeyr, Nicole S. Lovenduski, August Luna, Alan Robock, Jessica Stevens, Samantha Stevenson, Owen B. Toon, and Lili Xia, 2020: Marine wild-capture fisheries after nuclear war.  Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 117(47), 29,748-29,758, doi:10.1073/pnas.2008256117.   PDF file

  • Jägermeyr, Jonas, Alan Robock, Joshua Elliott, Christoph Müller, Lili Xia, Nikolay Khabarov, Christian Folberth, Erwin Schmid, Wenfeng Liu, Florian Zabel, Sam S. Rabin, Michael J. Puma, Alison C. Heslin, James Franke, Ian Foster, Senthold Asseng, Charles G. Bardeen, Owen B. Toon, and Cynthia Rosenzweig, 2020: A regional nuclear conflict would compromise global food security. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 117, 7071-7081, doi:10.1073/pnas.1919049117.    PDF file

  • Lovenduski, Nicole S., Cheryl S. Harrison, Holly Olivarez, Charles G. Bardeen, Owen B. Toon, Joshua Coupe, Alan Robock, Tyler Rohr, and Samantha Stevenson, 2020: The potential impact of nuclear conflict on ocean acidification. Geophys. Res. Lett., doi: 10.1029/2019GL086246.    PDF file

  • Robock, Alan, Owen B. Toon, Charles G. Bardeen, Lili Xia, Hans Kristensen, Matthew McKinzie, R. J. Peterson, Cheryl Harrison, Nicole S. Lovenduski, and Richard P. Turco, 2019: How an India-Pakistan nuclear war could start–and have global consequences. Bull. Atomic Scientists, 75:6, 273-279, doi:10.1080/00963402.2019.1680049.  PDF file

  • Toon, Owen B., Charles G. Bardeen, Alan Robock, Lili Xia, Hans Kristensen, Matthew McKinzie, R. J. Peterson, Cheryl Harrison, Nicole S. Lovenduski, and Richard P. Turco, 2019: Rapid expansion of nuclear arsenals by Pakistan and India portends regional and global catastrophe. Science Advances, 5, eaay5478, doi:10.1126/sciadv.aay5478.    Full paper and PDF file

  • Robock, Alan, Owen B. Toon, and Charles G. Bardeen, 2019: Comment on “Climate impact of a regional nuclear weapons exchange: An improved assessment based on detailed source calculations” by Reisner et al. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 124, 12,953-12,958, doi:10.1029/2019JD030777.    PDF file

  • Coupe, Joshua, Charles G. Bardeen, Alan Robock, and Owen B. Toon, 2019: Nuclear winter responses to global nuclear war in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Version 4 and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 124, 8522-8543, doi:10.1029/2019JD030509.     PDF file

  • Yu, Pengfei, Owen B. Toon, Charles G. Bardeen, Yunqian Zhu, Karen H. Rosenlof, Robert W. Portmann, Troy D. Thornberry, Ru-Shan Gao, Sean M. Davis, Eric T. Wolf, Joost de Gouw, David A. Peterson, Michael D. Fromm, and Alan Robock, 2019: Black carbon lofts wildfire smoke high into the stratosphere to form a persistent plume. Science, 365, 587-590, doi:10.1126/science.aax1748.     PDF file

  • Robock, Alan, and Brian Zambri, 2018: Did smoke from city fires in World War II cause global cooling? J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 123, 10,314-10,325, doi:10.1029/2018JD028922.     PDF file

  • Toon, Owen B., Alan Robock, Michael Mills, and Lili Xia, 2017: Asia treads the nuclear path, unaware that self-assured destruction would result from nuclear war. J. Asian Studies, 76, 437-456, doi:10.1017/S0021911817000080.     PDF file

  • Robock, Alan, 2015: Cloud control: Climatologist Alan Robock on the effects of geoengineering and nuclear war. Bull. Atomic Sci., 71(3), 1-7, doi:10.1177/0096340215581353.    PDF file

  • Baum, Seth D., David C. Denkenberger, Joshua M. Pearce, Alan Robock, and Richelle Winkler, 2015: Resilience to global food supply catastrophes. Environment, Systems, and Decisions, 35, 301-313, doi:10.1007/s10669-015-9549-2.    PDF file

  • Xia, Lili, Alan Robock, Michael Mills, Andrea Stenke, and Ira Helfand, 2015: Decadal reduction of Chinese agriculture after a regional nuclear war. Earth’s Future, 3, 37-48, doi:10.1002/2014EF000283.     PDF file

  • Robock, Alan, 2015: A Modest Proposal, Huffington Post    PDF file

  • Mills, Michael J., Owen B. Toon, Julia Lee-Taylor, and Alan Robock, 2014: Multi-decadal global cooling and unprecedented ozone loss following a regional nuclear conflict. Earth’s Future, 2, 161-176, doi:10.1002/2013EF000205.    PDF file

  • Xia, Lili, and Alan Robock, 2013: Impacts of a nuclear war in South Asia on rice production in mainland China. Climatic Change, 116, 357-372, doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0475-8.    PDF file

  • Özdoğan, Mutlu, Alan Robock, and Christopher Kucharik, 2013: Impacts of a nuclear war in South Asia on soybean and maize production in the Midwest United States. Climatic Change, 116, 373-387, doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0518-1.   PDF file

  • Robock, Alan, and Owen Brian Toon, 2012: Self-assured destruction: The climate impacts of nuclear war, Bull. Atomic Scientists, 68(5), 66-74, doi:10.1177/0096340212459127.  (Invited article)  PDF file

  • Robock, Alan, 2011: Nuclear winter is a real and present danger. Nature, 473, 275-276.   PDF file

  • Robock, Alan, and Owen Brian Toon, 2010:  Local nuclear war, global suffering.  Scientific American, 302, 74-81.  PDF file

  • Robock, Alan, 2010: Nuclear winter. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 1, 418-427. (Invited paper)   PDF file

  • Robock, Alan, 2010: New START, Eyjafjallajökull, and Nuclear Winter. Eos, 91 (47), 444-445, doi:10.1029/2010ES003201.   PDF file

  • Mills, Michael J., Owen B. Toon, Richard P. Turco, Douglas E. Kinnison, and Rolando R. Garcia, 2008:  Massive global ozone loss predicted following regional nuclear conflict.  Proc. National Acad. Sci., 105, 5307–5312.   PDF file

  • Toon, Owen B., Alan Robock, and Richard P. Turco, 2008:  Environmental consequences of nuclear war.  Physics Today, 61, No. 12, 37-42.  PDF file

  • Robock, Alan, 2008:  Time to bury a dangerous legacy – part II: Climatic catastrophe would follow regional nuclear conflict.  YaleGlobal Online

  • Robock, Alan, 2008:  Nuclear winter. In: Encyclopedia of Earth. Cutler J. Cleveland, Ed. (Washington, D.C.: Environmental Information Coalition, National Council for Science and the Environment). [First published in the Encyclopedia of Earth July 21, 2008; Last revised July 22, 2008].  http://www.eoearth.org/article/Nuclear_winter

  • Robock, Alan, 2007:  Climate effects of a regional nuclear conflict. IPRC Climate, 7, no. 1, 16-18.   PDF file

  • Robock, Alan, Luke Oman, Georgiy L. Stenchikov, Owen B. Toon, Charles Bardeen, and Richard P. Turco, 2007a:  Climatic consequences of regional nuclear conflicts.  Atm. Chem. Phys., 7, 2003-2012.  PDF file   Supplement caption  Supplement   This paper supersedes the previous discussion version.  Russian translation (по русский)  (See below for most important figures.)

  • Robock, Alan, Luke Oman, and Georgiy L. Stenchikov, 2007b:  Nuclear winter revisited with a modern climate model and current nuclear arsenals: Still catastrophic consequences.  J. Geophys. Res., 112, D13107, doi:2006JD008235.  PDF file  Russian translation (по русский)  Featured as a Research Highlight in Nature.

  • Robock, Alan, Owen B. Toon, Richard P. Turco, Luke Oman, Georgiy L. Stenchikov, and Charles Bardeen, 2007c: The continuing environmental threat of nuclear weapons:  Integrated policy responses needed.  EOS, 88, 228, 231, doi:10.1029/2007ES001816.  PDF file

  • Toon, Owen B., Richard P. Turco, Alan Robock, Charles Bardeen, Luke Oman, and Georgiy L. Stenchikov, 2007:  Atmospheric effects and societal consequences of regional scale nuclear conflicts and acts of individual nuclear terrorism.  Atm. Chem. Phys., 7, 1973-2002.  PDF file  This paper supersedes the previous discussion version.   Russian translation (по русский)

  • Toon, Owen B., Alan Robock, Richard P. Turco, Charles Bardeen, Luke Oman, and Georgiy L. Stenchikov, 2007:  Consequences of regional-scale nuclear conflicts.  Science, 315, 1224-1225.  PDF file