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The Iron Dome missile defense system has achieved a nearly 90% success rate

haaretz.com

17 points by darthgoogle 11 years ago · 48 comments

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dewey 11 years ago

The Iron Dome is a really amazing system, I was volunteering in the Israeli Army last year and this system was one you really had the feeling is changing the life for the better for people living in the affected areas. Even if they were not standing behind Israel politically they were still very grateful that this system is in place. The problem I see is that it's very expensive to run (I remember something about 50k/rocket, could be wrong though) while the rockets they are shooting down are very cheap to manufacture. They also send a minimum of 2 rockets for every incoming rocket to be on the safe side if I remember correctly.

Some more information:

http://www.idfblog.com/blog/2013/09/20/clear-skies-ahead-mee...

  • Kanbab 11 years ago

    If a rocket were to land in Tel Aviv and damage a building, it would probably cause more than $50,000 in damages. Damages to include are property damage, PTSD of the local population, schools closing, and offices closing.

    • Zaheer 11 years ago

      Those costs seem a bit overstated. This is what a Palestinian Quassam rocket impact looks like: http://neuezeitgeist.files.wordpress.com/2011/08/quassam-imp...

      Compare to Israeli rocket impact: http://www.abc.net.au/news/image/5582926-16x9-512x288.jpg

    • madaxe_again 11 years ago

      And air strikes in Gaza have killed more than a dozen children this past week alone. What's your point? That you value bus shelters more than human life?

      • thebiglebrewski 11 years ago

        Well, maybe if they didn't stand on the roof of a building that Israel warned them was going to be bombed, that wouldn't have happened:

        http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/09/world/middleeast/by-phone-...

        If Canada was firing rockets indiscriminately into the US, wouldn't you think we have a right to defend ourselves?

        Can you tell me with a straight face that if militants were to stop shooting rockets from Gaza, Israel would actually continue striking?

        • waps 11 years ago

          Asking lefties to side with Israel isn't going to work for several reasons, but the main ones are :

          1) Israel started out as a "free" communist state (the Kibbutzim system) and over a few decades the people en masse freely abandoned it to create what pretty much is the cutthroat almost purely capitalist society that it is today.

          It is the poster child for the idea that voluntary socialism doesn't work. It's existence at this point is an offence to the ideas that guide the international leftist movements.

          Israel's evolution is the reason that socialists worldwide aren't satisfied to create the option for people to be socialist, but want to have the state force socialism on everyone.

          The fun thing is, there is one single thing islam and the west agree on, and that's cutthroat capitalism. In fact, islam's sharia is significantly more cutthroat than western capitalism, including for example slavery. You'd think lefties would have a huge problem with an extreme capitalist party. Hell, you'd think Americans would have more problems with religions pushing slavery.

          2) Israel creates a hard-to-deny "western ideology" idea of superiority (not that Israel is all that western). Compare any property of Israel. Without resources, without much area, without much means it has achieved so much success it's not funny :

          (a) a democratic state, surrounded by dictatorships (Egypt and Saudi)

          (b) large, functional cities with an actual economy in that region (meaning not just foreign contractors drilling for oil and slaves, or just a sea of people wholly dependant on foreign food aid)

          (c) the population actually has decent lives

          (d) freedom of religion (maybe this ought to be higher up the list). Actual significant, prosperous pockets of pretty much every religion.

          (e) can actually survive without external sponsorship (e.g. the US pays more to a Gaza inhabitant than it pays to an unemployed person inside the United States ... that's the worst example, of course, but the US pays per-capita recurring amounts for every person in every country bordering Israel except Syria and Lebanon (where it's mostly done by other states).

          3) Israel is an easy scapegoat for the very bad relations between the west and islam. What everyone forgets is that there has only ever been open war between the west and islam for ~1400 years, and then low-level terrorist/insurgent warfare in the 20th century that's easier to ignore.

          Israel is obviously not the cause of this conflict, but it combines this unfortunate position for both parties :

          (a) for muslims it's the ultimate offence, an open, country-sized, big font note on every map saying "western freedom-of-religion culture is superior to islam !". A western state controlling one of the "holy" cities of islam. The central "reason" for islam is that allah promises muslims will conquer the world. Well, they can't even conquer Jerusalem ... They literally are unable to impose sharia law on one of the places it was created.

          Needless to say, muslims give zero consideration to the fact that it's also a holy city of Judaism and Christianity.

          The crime of Israel, in the eyes of moslems, is not the victims it's defensive campaigns caused, it's not the lost territory, it's is that it shows you can resist islam, right in the middle of it's heartland.

          Think of it like if there was a successful communist mini-state controlling a few neighbourhoods of Washington DC, that the US constantly, unsuccessfully, tries to sabotage using any and all means. That's how Israel appears to middle eastern moslems.

          (b) for western states it's the demonstration of what is needed to live with moslem neighbors. That the situation is effectively unchanged from the 19th century : the only way to survive moslem neighbors is to constantly be ready to start a military campaign at the drop of a hat.

          The moslem way of fighting makes following human rights, the separation of civilians and soldiers, nonsense. Islam dictates that every moslem is a soldier, or has to contribute to the war on "dar al harb", meaning they have to contribute to fighting some non-muslims. The big problem this causes is that moslem soldiers pose as civilians (because that's how "the prophet" fought), then suddenly take out weapons in a crowded marketplace and start fighting.

          Contrast the Christian (meaning canon law) way of fighting is : you send an envoy to the enemy, stating "date such-and-such, we fight here-and-here, we will not touch your forces in area A, you will not touch our forces in area B, and whoever wins gets to take city X", this is negotiated until both parties agree and then hostilities open. Surprise attacks against civilians, raids and insurgent attacks, moslems' basic strategy (whether you're talking about the prophet's wars or recent stuff), is utterly out of the question and considered a moral abomination.

          Obviously canon law is about as successful regulating war as sharia law was, or any other law really, once the guns start blasting, but it generally does govern the start of conflicts. The best example of "but the law says" versus warfare in my mind is the Spartacus campaign in the Roman Empire. That's a story that you start reading very hopeful, everyone starting with good intentions, everyone out to improve everyone's life and everyone agreeing to abide by a legal system (even if that legal system is somewhat ...) and you are literally terrified at the end. It doesn't happen because one side behaves badly (they do behave badly, of course, just for good reasons). Everything that happens is sort-of reasonable given the situation, yet it ends in a torture massacre, and a global repeal of some freedoms in the Roman Empire.

          This means that military bases are the central feature of every moslem town, and everyone is a soldier. It means schools, mosques, shops and rocket launching facilities are one and the same thing. (Mosque, incidentally, translates to "fortress". Historically mosques were fortresses first, and had several other functions. In historical mosques you will find markets, slave markets (recognizable by the fashion-show like podia), weapons inventory, food inventory, stables, schools, soldier's bunk rooms, walls, siege weapons, ... The prayer room (masjid, not mosque. There do exist masjids that aren't mosques, mostly in non-sunni brands of islam).

          Western states do not want to get into this fight, and Israel is a constant reminder that if one side in a conflict decides you're in a fight, then you're in a fight. If one side decides to destroy some legal right, there is a massive cost on the other side to maintain it. Freedom of religion, civilian versus military separation, economic freedom, freedom of movement, immigration, ... all of these cannot be sustained in a real conflict. The west simply hasn't gotten in a real conflict for more than a generation, so nobody seems to remember what happened to legal rights in America during WWII.

          In strategic reality, Israel is a lightning rod : it's getting attacked by moslems, who would otherwise be attacking other things (they have for 1500 years, never stopped). In public opinion, it's a stark and public reminder that there has never been even a single decade of peace with the moslem world, there have only been periods where muslims were utterly defeated in most regions, with conflicts limited to border regions. It's a reminder because it's an offence to moslems and so moslems won't stop attracting attention to it, where the conflicts islam gets into everywhere else, Sudan, Mali, China, Pakistan, India, Azerbajan, Iran, Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, Zanzibar, Kenia, Somalia, ... sort of fade into the background.

          What people don't realize is the stakes of this conflict : if the conflict escalates (moslems don't have to win to achieve this) much of the 20th century social advances will have to be at least temporarily reversed. Since the alternative is destruction, they will be, because when it comes right down to it, survival and freedom from raids is more important than pretty much anything else, including things like due process, democracy, ... There is no way islam's strategy can work, but it can destroy a lot before it is defeated. Sadly, if the conflict escalates, some of these rights will be lost for a long time.

      • Kanbab 11 years ago

        I'm saying that the potential damage that 1 cheap Hamas rocket may cause is much higher than the cost of Iron Dome rockets.

  • madaxe_again 11 years ago

    Yes, money well spent. It's important to be well armed when you're living on someone else's land.

    I assume you don't consider Palestinians people?

    • dewey 11 years ago

      Let's not turn this into a political discussion here. Just because I volunteered doesn't mean I'm agreeing on everything they do, my boss in the army was an arab and he was one of the nicest people I've met.

      If you think it's someone else's land it's probably time for a history lesson going back further than 1948.

      • madaxe_again 11 years ago

        It IS a political discussion however. How can one talk about a weapons system used in an asymmetrical war without being political?

        Sorry, but the Torah is historical fact just as much as the bible or the Qur'an, and are we to accept every claim as fact? Either way, it's a state based on fundamentalist dogma, so I'm not certain what history you think I should be learning. I think the western interests around Suez and the desire to prevent an ascendant Iran on the post-war years are far more relevant to why Israel is.

        Edit: not sure how you can say that you don't support it all yet you volunteered. That's the very definition of support.

        • sumol 11 years ago

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DBFdlj0Cv-Y#t=50 Quoted: Are IDF soldiers happy with their missions? Is the Israeli army 'the most moral' in the world? What are the tasks when there are no immediate wars or terror alerts? We talk to Avihai Stollar, IDF veteran combatant and member of 'Breaking the Silence' organization, which collects confessions from soldiers about what they had to engage in during their military service in the West Bank or Gaza.

JumpCrisscross 11 years ago

>[Iron Dome] has been activated to intercept about 27 percent of the approximately 180 rockets fired between Monday night and midday Wednesday.

Measure what you manage. The system's success rate for attempted targets is a valid measure. But it is also a dangerous one on which to solely rely. A devious commander, seeking only to maximize this metric, would limit Iron Dome interceptions to only those strikes which he is supremely confident it can successfully intercept.

May I suggest a complimentary statistic of people injured, and property damaged, per missile fired from Palestinian territory regardless of whether Iron Dome engages or not. This measures, in the long run, both (a) how effective Iron Dome is when it engages and (b) how good Iron Dome is at deciding whether or not to engage. B is missing today. I think it is a crucial component to manage.

dodyg 11 years ago

I live in Cairo. I cannot help but to compare that this is the third day of the Israel strikes on Gaza and so far 70 people have been killed. This is how many people that we lost in Egypt last year on a single 'mildy bad' chaotic day.

Living in the Middle East makes you numb to this common killings.

crisnoble 11 years ago

Interesting, the BBC reports different stats:

"The military said its Iron Dome missile defence system had intercepted 21 of the 82 rockets fired on Wednesday, including three above Tel Aviv, three over Ashkelon and three over Ashdod."

source: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-28240137

  • FeeTinesAMady 11 years ago

    Iron Dome works by calculating the trajectory of incoming rockets and leaving them alone if they're going to hit an unpopulated area, so that doesn't necessarily contradict the given statistic.

  • GabrielF00 11 years ago

    The reason for the discrepancy is that Iron Dome was only activated for 27% of rockets fired. When it was activated, it was 90% accurate. Based on some the Wikipedia article is looks like they don't bother trying to intercept rockets that wouldn't land in populated areas. I don't know if that's for cost reasons or because targeting every rocket wouldn't be technically feasible or would degrade their capability or what.

  • falsestprophet 11 years ago

    They only engage rockets that may land in populated areas.

bronxbomber92 11 years ago

An MIT professor on NPR radio earlier this evening reported that the Iron Dome missile defense systems has achieved a less than 5% success rate. Him or the article must be wrong, but who?

hadoukenio 11 years ago

The problem is that if it's such a wild success, it may lead to other forms of attacks e.g. suicide bombers which were more effective might become trendy again.

  • Demeno 11 years ago

    [I hope not to turn this political] Israeli here, as far as I know suicide bombings didn't drop in popularity, they just became much harder to carry out since construction of the fence. Shooting rockets over the fence is just much easier these days...

justizin 11 years ago

"A senior Israel Defense Forces officer said Wednesday that the number of rockets to hit Israel can be expected to rise."

In other words, Israel is not planning to de-escalate their illegal occupation - in fact it sounds likely they're planning to invade the gaza strip, which they have been bombing quite actively in recent days and hours.

  • JumpCrisscross 11 years ago

    >In other words, Israel is not planning to de-escalate their illegal occupation

    This is a complex issue involving diverse viewpoints. One may find it enriching to consider the differing views and values that go into such a misunderstanding. I've learned a lot about myself and human nature by contemplating and modelling geopolitics.

    Referring to the situation as an "illegal occupation" is harsh. And ambiguous. This is an international conflict; there are no laws which gain automatic primacy.

    Further, your conclusion - as stated - appears tenuous. A military spokesperson pointing at rising attacks could signify many things. Domestic support could be waning. Or the enthusiasm of an offshore balancer. It could also signify increased militarism in Gaza, independent of IDF activity. Granted, it could also mean preparations for IDF escalation. But you need to produce more concrete evidence, not vitriol, to back up that hypothesis.

    • madaxe_again 11 years ago

      It's utterly unambiguous. Familiar with the Stern gang?

      More attacks would be a result of Israeli air strikes and Netanyahu egging on a ground offensive.

      I'm sorry that you've been brainwashed, but you're the warmongers here, not the oppressed Palestinians.

      • thescrewdriver 11 years ago

        > I'm sorry that you've been brainwashed, but you're the warmongers here, not the oppressed Palestinians.

        Of course Hamas is a completely innocent, never having murdered anyone ever... You're so busy pointing fingers at one side that you're blinded to the faults of the other...

        • thebiglebrewski 11 years ago

          Thank you! How could anyone say that Hamas is not guilty of anything? As mentioned in a comment above: if Hamas stopped shooting rockets, I'd have a really hard time believing that Israel would not stop their assault, the government has said several times that they are simply responding to rocket fire.

          "We will only have peace with the Arabs when they love their children more than they hate us." -Golda Meir

  • xwowsersx 11 years ago

    How you managed to grab a sentence from the article about the IDF's assessment that there will likely be more rockets fired on Israel from Gaza and turn that into flagrant incendiary baffles me.

    "Dogs are cute."

    In other words, roses are red.

    • madaxe_again 11 years ago

      I feel like you wanted to write antisemitism. It isn't. Israel have started a war here. There's nothing incendiary about the truth, except to those who prefer lies.

      • Kanbab 11 years ago

        There is an ongoing cold & hot war between Hamas and Israel. Israel maintains checkpoints in the West Bank, and continues to build settlements, while leaving Gaza alone. Hamas undermines West Bank peace by murdering Fatah members, and not negotiating with Israel, claiming they want to ultimately fight all Jews in the world. Furthermore, Mahmoud Abbas in the West Bank joined Hamas in a unity government.

        I think you are mistaken about who started the current fighting. In short, among the backdrop of relative calm: 3 Israelis youths were murdered, Israel searched the West Bank, and arrested numerous Hamas individuals, among other suspects. An Arab boy was murdered, Israel arrested numerous Israeli suspects. Hamas begins firing rockets from Gaza. Then Israel began responding with air attacks in Gaza.

        • madaxe_again 11 years ago

          And who murdered those kids? Not Hamas.

          And who runs Gaza and the West Bank? Not Hamas.

          Who sent in troops and violated the ceasefire, killing children, and precipitating this? Sure as hell not Hamas. Netanyahu.

          Finally - the "unity government" you speak ill of was welcomed everywhere as a positive step towards peace - except for in Israel where it's being used as an excuse for war.

          • laichzeit0 11 years ago

            And who began firing rockets from Gaza? "Not Hamas"? I'm not trying to establish order of events here. Just baiting you to acknowledge a factual detail first.

            • madaxe_again 11 years ago

              Not Hamas. Hamas have been acting as Israel's extended defence force in the area for the past 18 months, since the cease-fire - actively preventing jihadist groups from carrying out strikes.

              Israel's heavy-handed response to the "missing" (when in fact they already knew they were dead) children is what precipitated this.

              Hamas started rocket salvos, and acknowledged such, when the airstrikes began in earnest.

              • thescrewdriver 11 years ago

                Isn't it amazing how they can enforce a ceasefire when they want to, and turn a blind eye to other groups when it suits them...

          • thescrewdriver 11 years ago

            > And who murdered those kids? Not Hamas.

            Hamas themselves neither confirms nor denies it [1], so how can you claim that?

            [1] http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/10/us-palestinians-is...

          • Kanbab 11 years ago

            Who runs Gaza? If not Hamas, then who?

  • falsestprophet 11 years ago

    To be fair, their activities comply with Israel law.

pling 11 years ago

So all you need is 10 missiles to win against the statistics?

  • justizin 11 years ago

    rockets are not missiles, fyi. less than one percent of one percent of one percent of all rockets fired into israel ever result in casualties, while at least 15 children have been killed in palestine in the past couple of days by F-16 strikes.

    barbara walters, of course, showed footage of carnage in palestine under the supposition that it was in israel.

    puke

    • onion2k 11 years ago

      The problem with fighting a war based in religion and hate, on both sides, is that any rational person would stop firing rockets with odds like that.

      • lostlogin 11 years ago

        Are you referring to the odds of a rocket getting through to Israel, or the odds of killing Palestinian children.

        • andreasvc 11 years ago

          I take him to be referring to the odds of Palestinian missiles being intercepted, and the retaliation resulting in casualties.

      • sitkack 11 years ago

        I am still looking for this magical "rational person." I have already found spherical ones and integrated their surface area and volumes.

    • jedmeyers 11 years ago

      So apparently it's OK to fire rockets as long as they rarely kill someone.

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