Tracking when Trump chickens out
thetacotracker.com> Settles Columbia $400M funding freeze for $221M university payment
> Settles for 15% EU tariff after threatening 30% in July 12 letter
Many of these seem like pretty basic negotiations.
> Posts himself as Jesus healing the sick, deletes it, claims it was a doctor
What did he chicken out of? I guess posting a meme?
I'm not a fan of a lot of the things going on at the federal level but I feel like many critics just lost the plot.
You’re sanewashing Trump’s absolutely bonkers behavior by focusing on the critics.
The man can barely form a sentence and posts on social media on the mental and writing level of a ten-year-old. Americans are choosing to accept this from their leader. He is 80 years old and obviously very unwell. Terminal-stage Soviet Union had more competent leadership.
> You’re sanewashing Trump’s absolutely bonkers behavior by focusing on the critics.
I think it's legitimate to focus on his critics, because they've been oddly ineffective. His 2024 victory should never have happened, but it did thanks to the incompetence of his opponents and critics.
Their "losing the plot" may be an important part of that: he says crazy things, but that goads his critics into also saying crazy/wrong things, which probably helps neutralize whatever advantage they'd have. Sure, partisans wouldn't be affected because hate him, but they don't really matter, because they hate him.
> The man can barely form a sentence and posts on social media on the mental and writing level of a ten-year-old. Americans are choosing to accept this from their leader. He is 80 years old and obviously very unwell. Terminal-stage Soviet Union had more competent leadership.
I don't think that line of attack works. It may be true, but many of his opponents hate him and would say that regardless of if it were true or not.
Do you usually start negotiations by publicly deriding your counterparty and state absurd demands?
I dont know. I guess that's one strategy. Im also not a billionaire and leader of the free world. So I can only assume there is some merit in this particular negotiation style if it landed him where he is.
That's a bit of an appeal to authority, no? It might have given results but it wasn't without cost, is it net-positive overall?
This style doesn't build bridges, it's purely adversarial, diplomacy requires building bridges for long-term sustainability of relations.
How is it an appeal to authority? He wasn't appointed to his position in life through bloodline or familial connections. He made insane wealth through business dealings, much of it through negotiations with sharks. Then he convinced half of the country to vote for him with no political experience against a dynasty.
Sure it's not my style and I don't quite understand how its effective, but to dismiss it outright as ineffective is naive.
> I don't quite understand how its effective
It's the negotiation equivalent of rent-seeking, or parasitism. It requires deep relationships to have already been built, and it consumes those relationships in exchange for modest short term gain.
> He wasn't appointed to his position in life through bloodline or familial connections. He made insane wealth through business dealings, much of it through negotiations with sharks.
Uhm, no.
> Donald actually received $413 million from Fred over the years [1], [2]:
And as to whether he is any good at investing, he is literally worse than average S&P500 [3].
[1]: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/donald-trump-received-... [2]: https://apnews.com/article/0452d29cd2564eaf97605ab90acc3a67 [3]: https://www.forbes.com/sites/danalexander/2021/10/11/its-off...
you can actually look up his childhood on the web, no need to hallucinate
Trump did not get where he is through negotiations or business success. In fact his business success was very limited until he got to political power.
He got where he is by being one of the earliest influencers and “reality” TV show host.
His bank credit was toast everywhere except at Deutche Bank which has been exposed as being a conduit for Russian money laundering.
"An idiot's idea of an intelligent person"
A sheep’s idea of a wolf.
Tbf the tariff thing was tagged 'medium' and only has a single vote. The Jesus taco is pretty clearly him caving to evangelicals being offended by his meme.
Yes, this site takes some very consistent negotiation failures and broadens the criticism to anything that resembles backing down. That's not representative of his critics, this is just someone's slop project.
>I'm not a fan of a lot of the things going on at the federal level but I feel like many critics just lost the plot.
As a rule of thumb you can ignore everything people say before the "but".
Okay I guess his critics just lost the plot. What's your point?
Well the problem is the rabid left wing nuts all have TDS. So anything Trump does can only be viewed through one lens. To be fair this is sort of par for the course when you're in a position of power. You can never please everyone.
Now on the opposite extreme, the MAGA sycophants, Trump can do nothing wrong, and every misstep is positioned as some sort of 4D chess move we are all too dumb to understand.
If there weren't real lives at stake it would be funny.
The real issue here is we have a divisive person in power who revels in the chaos and the fighting.
Stop trying to "both sides" this.
Especially when one side is "rabid" "nuts" and the other side is just "sycophants". You are not the neutral reasonable centrist you pretend to be.
People don't have to perfectly neutral central position either. Far more problematic when you are trying to stop them from having one.
This is a pretty unique aesthetic. Does the author have other works / a blog? Can v0 / Claude Design do this these days?
v0 / Claude Design does this these days. As in, I may be wrong here, but this aesthetic is a good clue that the site was designed by AI. These models seem to love this brutalist high contrast look.
i should've included more context. https://www.reddit.com/r/SideProject/comments/1sqdj98/i_made...
It's Claude Design. How do I know? A site I was working on has the same aesthetic... Which is disappointing but not unexpected.
Ah okay, thanks. We've come a long way since the purple gradients and glowy buttons but I suppose there is still a tell.
Aside from the clear insider trading (any news on who may be behind it, or have we reached the point where it is all untraceable and officials can exploit their position with absolutely no consequences whatsoever?), some trading firms have certainly started to try to model Trump to forecast when he flips.
Yes, yes, this is all very clever and funny and whatnot. I chuckled. Well done you.
...But has it occurred to you that by putting this online and publicising it, you're effectively daring this lunatic with nuclear codes to actually go through with his threats? I for one am relieved every time he "chickens out".
This website is not going to cause nuclear war.
You don't know that.
I wish I was kidding.
When Trump orders an attack he is a war-monger. When Trump does not order an attack he 'chickens out'. Maybe the author of this page should create another version for when he does the former, call it thewarmongertracker.com so that all sides are covered.
He could easily avoid this conundrum by not promising the destruction of a civilization.
People saying he's chickening out from war don't want him to go the war, they're just using a nickname that came from simpler times (tariffs) but is still accurate.
The fact that my dog doesn't know what to do when it catches the car doesn't mean that my dog is not an idiotic car-chaser.