From shine to decline: Degradation of over 1M solar PV systems in Germany
sciencedirect.comAustralia has a lot of solar panels, a good number are hitting the 30 year mark.
Buried in that longevity, is an observation that a fifth of panels degrade faster than expected
The long tail appears on graphs showing the degradation rate per year of the panels, indicating that up to 20% of all samples perform 1.5 times worse than the average.
See (Uni NSW study) Cracking the ‘long tail’ problem: new research targets hidden solar panel issue (2026) - https://www.unsw.edu.au/newsroom/news/2026/01/research-targe...and discussion: Maximising time in the sun: how to maintain and repair solar panels to make them last (2026) - https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/feb/13/maxim...
"Fleet-scale, real-world solar performance ratio declines by 0.59% per year."
I've heard 1% before.
At 0.59%, the panels reach 80% after about 35 years. By which time they may be at 60% of whatever panels are on sale then.