A 1,300-pound NASA spacecraft to re-enter Earth's atmosphere

The space agency said there is a one in 4,200 chance of being harmed by a piece of the probe, which it characterised as "low" risk.

Can someone help me interpret the statistics here?

I assume that's a 1 in 4200 chance of anyone being hit, as opposed to each individual on Earth's independent chance of being harmed in this event?

If it were the latter wouldn't it be virtually guaranteed some (lots of) people would be hit?

Also don't people in the projected debris footprint have a way higher chance of being harmed than those outside it? Wouldn't a more meaningful metric be what the worst-case risk is to those at "ground zero"? If I lived in the reentry corridor it sure would be more meaningful to me.