Mental Models (2018)
fs.blogAll these mental models are simplified maps of an infinitely complex reality. When we rely on them too heavily, do we risk falling into the trap of mistaking the map for the actual territory? The very tools we use to understand the world can end up shaping and even limiting our perspective. That's why being aware of the limitations of the models themselves is just as important as using them.
“All perception is gamble” - Robert Anton Wilson / Husserl
From the same website.
Your map/territory risk is exactly what this lineage formalizes -- internal maps are necessary but they shape and limit perception. Walter Lippmann (1922) makes "pictures in our heads" the operative reality of public judgment:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Opinion
Frederic Bartlett (1932) defines schemas as memory structures that pre-shape perception and recall:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schema_(psychology)
Jean Piaget explains schema updating via assimilation/accommodation when evidence conflicts with the map:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assimilation_(psychology)
Edward Tolman introduces cognitive maps, making "map" literal in psychology:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_map
Marvin Minsky formalizes frames as slot-filled expectations that speed inference but can blind you to anomalies:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frame_(artificial_intelligence...
voidhorse: "mental model" vs "theory" is a real distinction in the literature. Kenneth Craik frames small-scale models as internal simulations for reasoning, not public theories:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenneth_Craik
Philip Johnson-Laird formalizes mental models as internal simulations used for inference and prediction:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philip_Johnson-Laird
andsoitis: "informal, simplified, personal" models are exactly why systematic errors show up. Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky document heuristics and biases when internal maps are over-trusted:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heuristics_in_judgment_and_dec...
Repair loop: Seymour Papert's microworlds provide controlled sandboxes for testing and revising models:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constructionism_(learning_theo...
Gary Drescher gives a schema mechanism for incremental action/outcome updates that rebuild the map from experience:
https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262517089/made-up-minds/
If you want to see Drescher operationalized, MOOLLM turns the schema mechanism into working skills. Schema Mechanism is the causal core, Schema Factory adds a deterministic toolchain and context bundles for LLM reasoning, and Play-Learn-Lift is the governance loop that maps ACT/OBSERVE/ATTRIBUTE/SPIN OFF into audited upgrades. This is GOFAI made practical with LLMs filling the old gaps in grounding and explanation.
Drescher's Schema Mechanism as Anthropic Skill:
https://github.com/SimHacker/moollm/blob/main/skills/schema-...
Drescher's Schema Factory as Anthropic Skill:
https://github.com/SimHacker/moollm/blob/main/skills/schema-...
Play=>Learn=>Lift methodology as Anthropic Skill:
https://github.com/SimHacker/moollm/blob/main/skills/play-le...
Here is the exact kind of thing we are talking about -- the YAML Jazz schema examples are live, readable schemas-by-example with causal context, semantic comments, evidence counts, side effects, and marginal attribution notes, including a practical devops edgebox/ingest cluster and a Zork/MUD "learn by dying" cluster so you can see the mechanism at work in real data:
https://github.com/SimHacker/moollm/blob/main/skills/schema-...
And here is a MOOLLM simulation session explaining Gary Drescher's ideas themselves -- an ethical tribute simulation (not actually real people), grounded in documented work and analyzed source code, and framed for a simulated audience of familiar experts, to show how a Society of Mind meets "The Sims" style ensemble can explain itself:# YAML Jazz schema examples (comments are semantic) # # These are schemas-by-example: minimal structure, rich intent. # Follow canon schema rules where possible, but annotate as needed. # Ad hoc fields and side-notes are allowed for partially jelled ideas.https://github.com/SimHacker/moollm/blob/main/examples/adven...
Finally, if you want the deeper connections tour written specifically for this thread -- the big-picture synthesis that ties Papert, Minsky, Drescher, Play-Learn-Lift, and live microworlds into one operational map -- dive here:
https://github.com/SimHacker/moollm/blob/main/designs/CONNEC...
It's sad to me that people are apparently so allergic to the term "theory" that we had to come up with this lesser version of it. I guess the key difference is that "mental model" might emphasize dynamics more strongly, which is a flaw in my opinion (logical relationship is what matters, whether those relations are static or dynamic).
> It's sad to me that people are apparently so allergic to the term "theory" that we had to come up with this lesser version of it.
There's an argument to be made that it is useful to distinguish between mental models and theories.
If a theory is a structured, formal explanation of phenomena, grounded in evidence, logic, and often mathematics that is meant to be shared, tested, and and falsified, a mental model is more of an internal representation of how something works, often informal, simplified, personal, and built to help you reason, predict, and decide.
I find both tools useful, but different.
Previous discussion here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17121145
Always a good read
Thanks! Macroexpanded:
Mental Models: The Best Way to Make Intelligent Decisions - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24527003 - Sept 2020 (35 comments)
Mental Models: The Best Way to Make Intelligent Decisions (113 Models Explained) - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17121145 - May 2018 (36 comments)
The version from 2018 seems to have been replaced with an AI-generated copy of itself for whatever reason.
You can use the Wayback Machine to read the version that was originally discussed.
Thanks for confirming. I liked the clarity of outline but the AI-speak of the prose was really a slog.
My mental model of a website that replaces the content with some 'sign up now' stuff while I'm trying to read it is that it deserves to get closed and never looked-at again.
My mental model is ignoring people who complain about free stuff
Ohhhh it's free! Let's shove it up the arse!!!!
Yeah yeah, like someone is doing charity here.
True, how free is something really when it’s full of advertisement, trackers and popups
FS was a major part of me getting into Munger and building out my web of mental models.
Will always be grateful to Shane for that!
Recommendations of things to read in that vein?
The Wit and Wisdom of Charlie Munger is a good place to start.
Shane's mental models books are packed with a lot of random/disparate domains/insights -- He's a good aggregator there.
Thinking in Systems by Meadows.
Really, once you go down the rabbit hole, you find new threads to pull. That's kind of the fun of it
Books by Peter Bevelin (From Darwin to Munger etc.) or Rolf Dobelli are decent compilations. But mental models are everywhere. Taleb's books have a bunch. But start with what you have in front of you: pick one and actually apply it programmatically, then add to your repertoire one at a time.
Bought his books, definitely the first time I was exposed to this sort of stuff. Great reads
LOL. I was looking for an about link to learn who the author is, but there’s isn’t one. The more I scrolled the more I kept seeing these book covers all with the name. So I guess that stands for “about” link. Cheeky.
But what I really wanted to say, this reminds me of Scott E Page’s Coursera course on Model Thinking, and a book: “The Model Thinker What You Need to Know to Make Data Work for You” also from 2018.
They seem to be being a bit naughty with the attribution. This is all based of the ideas of Charlie Munger who featured more prominently if you look at an archive version of the same page https://web.archive.org/web/20180215045353/https://fs.blog/m...
A transcript of Charlie's speech is still up https://fs.blog/great-talks/a-lesson-on-worldly-wisdom/
I guess Shane Parrish is trying to carry the torch on now that Charlie has passed.
Not sure how you missed it, it’s here: https://fs.blog/about/
?? Because the hamburger menu (as of viewing right now 2026-01-24 1953 EST) shows: [Newsletter, Books, Podcast, Articles, Login, Becomes a member]
That said, I am on mobile…?