Show HN: LLM-Powered Arbitrage Finder for Kalshi and Polymarket (Gemini Pro 3)
arb.carolinacloud.ioScans all Polymarket and Kalshi markets with over $1m of volume every 4h and uses the LLM to match markets.
Finds "true arbs" and "stat arbs". True arbs are what they sound like — the exact same market on each platform. Stat arb markets are correlated but not the exact same thing. For example, "Trump impeached during his second term" and "Trump impeached this year?" are correlated.
Thinking of incorporating slippage into this soon and assigning a dollar amount to each arbitrage since not all markets have deep order books. Also might start trading! But I have no idea where Kalshi and Polymarket host their execution backend. I would guess Ashburn or NY but I am not sure.
Statistical arbitrage: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_arbitrage
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