The Great AI Bubble

I spent 15 minutes looking at the diagram in the article and tried to figure out how I can conclude whether it's a bubble.

I couldn't conclude it.

It's just a diagram that shows the economic relationship between companies. If they'd all merge into MegaAI, these flows would just be departments supporting each other on different AI projects.

It's not suitable to prove a bubble.

I think a bubble is nothing else than a sudden change in expected value. Currently, the market expects that AI is very valuable because of actual practical value. In this expectation there's also future improvements which might or might not come.

We might see a crash if we realize that this technology reached its limits. Then, we'll all look poorer on paper in the reverse way that we look richer on paper now than 12 months ago. However, I don't think anything serious will happen if such a crash would occur. It's not that people take loans to bet on these stocks.

(Even the 2008 housing bubble could be seen as a temporary market correction when looking at the long-term real estate prices. Housing is much more expensive today than on the peak of that bubble.)

I like how journalists without a background in economics nor AI tech are confidently proclaiming that it is a bubble and it's going to burst.

Meanwhile, I just spent 20 minutes and built a fantastic looking small business website for my relative's new business via Vercel's v0. Everything including the design, marketing, copy, form creation was done by the AI.

In the past, it would have taken me days to do so.