The AI Bubble and the US Economy
mronline.org
1 thread
It's gonna be a hard fall when it comes, with the only silver lining I can foresee being cheap GPUs once the demand crashes.
It's hard to tell from the data, it's so concentrated within a handful of companies who are all buying from eachother, so it feels like the contagion risk is low. At the same time it feels very clearly overvalued and the size of the inflows are huge.
The contagion risk is huge. As the article points out in several ways, the AI bubble is the only part of the US economy where number go up.
Every single bank, fund and retail investor is heavily, if not existentialy, exposed to this house of cards. Absurd promises are being made with national economy-sized volumes of cash.
This is going to take everyone down when it blows.