Nvidia Financial Results for Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2025
nvidianews.nvidia.comNumbers:
- option implied move of 10%, that's a big swing either way
- Q4 EPS $0.89, Est $0.84
- Q4 Gross Margins 73.5%, Est 73.5%
- Q4 Rev $39.3B Est $38.5B
- Q4 Data center rev $35.6B, Est $34.1B
- Forecasts Q1 Rev of $43B, so expecting a new year bump
- Automotive Rev $570M Est $500M
- Networking Rev $3B, Est $3.6B, look for a a Q1 increase
- R&D expenses $3.7B up 51% yoy, Est $3.75B
- Q4 gaming revenue down on limited supply of ADA and Blackwell supply, which is fine as gaming rev is around $2.5B. Hard to believe that this was the entire company just 10 years ago
To Watch:
- Look at geography of sales of H series chips
- what do they say about next refresh
- used to be counted on to beat Est by 10-20%, now expected to meet Estimates
- Can they ramp up Blackwell, turns out they can, nothing wrong with their pipeline so far( $11B delivered in Q4)
Notes:
- company now has $43B in cash, close to double what it had a year ago. Watch for a fat 1 time Div, MSFT, AAPL, etc all did it when their cash pile got to large
- shares down YTD which could be profit taking for those hedge funds that deferred gains till the new year
- Current data center GPU break down is 94% NVDA, 5.9% AMD and 0.1% Intel
- Market so far is Meh about this, which is probably a win for the markets at the moment
- other chip makers are flat as well in the after hours
- other MAG7 companies are pretty flat as well.
- IMHO the thing that the markets love the most is the forward guidance not the current quarters numbers
What matters for the market based on current valuation:
Jan 2025 - EPS beat by 5,22%
Oct 2024 - EPS beat by 8,58%
Jul 2024 - EPS beat by 5,66%
Apr 2024 - EPS beat by 9,74%
So their Earnings per share beat has been slowing for four quarters in a row. This first quarter of the year will probably show some slowdown on the investment on AI for large companies. It's also clear, the Singapore tunnel to China will be shutdown by the current administration.
I predict a decrease on the share price as of the market opening today....
4Q exceeds expectations.
1Q revenue guidance exceeds expectations.
1Q gross margin estimate less than expected, 71% (non-GAAP).
Good growth but slowing down slightly.
NVDA growth will begin to slow down to the point to about *just* meeting expectations. There are too many eyes on NVDA expecting a repeat of those massive beat in results of the past.
You won't get the massive unexpected gains you had before in the past. All just as expected.
Instead what you should be waiting for is what will DeepSeek AI be releasing that will question the valuations of these startups.
Nvidia will still be fine, but I'm seeing a repeat of 1999 hype forming with lots of so-called "AI startups" getting trapped with over-valuation.
> a repeat of 1999 hype forming with lots of so-called "AI startups" getting trapped with over-valuation.
Oh yes: "Pre-product AI ‘company’ now valued at $30bn" - https://www.ft.com/content/70310b03-6bd6-46e2-b842-8db474ff0...