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3 points by dhotson a year ago · 3 comments

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anenefan a year ago

The TLDR is the fission nuclear path in Australia is BS - it is only furthered by those who stand to make directly or indirectly a lot of money from getting the idea to the build stage - before the public get sick of the mounting costs and a realisation of security implications ... if Australia needs nuclear submarines ... single points of failure ... would a distributed power generation system and power generation closer to consumer not be better?

Where to start ... interesting thoughts but there are larger elements which will play a more important role in the energy market outcome in the next 2 or more decades. Solar panels are not the only option for making use of solar power - there's already power plants overseas using the raw power to heat up salt or metal for power production around the clock, assuming not too many wet and cloudy days, Australia's inland areas can provide many suitable sites that are not yet utilised. I also expect a significant fraction of energy storage will be ammonia based ... ammonia fuel cells already exist and as every year goes by, so do better and more efficient methods discovered to produce ammonia -- so it's just a matter of time before a workable method of implementing it for regular household users is found. I expect once there's widespread adoption, storage won't be anhydrous ammonia but aqua ammonia for safety reasons.

Getting to the bottom of the nuclear energy noise -- the first thing to embrace is; that much of the pro nuclear noise has stirred up a rushed this is what works on paper costings, the second is; much of the pro nuclear noise is promoted by those in or around the Australian Liberal Party and large business orientated entities likely to make ludicrous (read insane) amounts of money directly and indirectly from the road of nuclear implementation - and for those outside of Australia or unfamiliar or just plain forgot, the political party referenced here is the same bunch of people that a few years ago primarily blamed wind farms (for a while at least, and remember their expert help didn't do much to correct them) in one of its southern states for a weather event where the wind blew down a number transmission towers cutting power to a great proportion of the population down that way - I shit you not. Yes of course not enough money had been spent on the transmission infrastructure -- and it may be time for the Australian govt. to start thinking about implementing a few underground DC-DC very high voltage links to ensure a more robust electricity network.

The nuclear noise presently in the average news feed shares a lot of similarity to the biofuel saga. Firstly the anti ethanol BS of the late 70s here in Australia around the cane industry, where every "study" or on paper costings declared it was too expensive and cost more than fossil fuel being retailed at the bowser for regular fuel. Later this millennium there's been a push for biodiesel or simply biofuel which understandably satisfies the desire for individuals to use non fossil fuels or waste vegatable oil which is a very good idea if the feed stock is cheap enough. There's been lots of development over the last 20 years as well and there's a great number of things that are deep rabbit holes, - some is just hype, but some is very interesting too. More recently there's been PR stunts like getting jet planes to run on biofuel - still a worthwhile effort on its own - however along with the rest of the media attention biofuels get, it has proved to be a great distraction from a reality that is not greatly mentioned and still isn't being discussed -- it gets all rather moot when one discovers the present liquid fossil fuel cracking plants can use vegetable oil as a feed stock and from what I read, said to produce near identical fuel ... it's a wtf, ok I understand backyard biofuel setups or small business setups that re-purpose waste oil ... but obviously on a grand scale it makes more sense use already existing assets to process 100,000 ton or more of vegetable oil into fuels we can use without any change whatsoever to the current vehicle market - except maybe the feed stock was a bit greener - sure there are likely to be more extra costs and perhaps a shorter working life of a cracking plant and a different waste product that needs to be addressed, but ...

On solar panels - what sort of panels makes a difference. With the version where the silicon cell is compounded (for about the quickest way I can think to describe it) as a South Australian company did a few years ago, a little bit of shading doesn't mean a disproportionate drop off in energy production. Regular silicon cells the power output is not a straight line as per amount of sunlight received. But in a decade or more I expect a greater variety of panels to be in use, for instance including those that can make power at night. [1]

Summing up, long before a nuclear power plant gets up and running, the public will finally realise any nuclear power here is a liability, any such plant is an attack target - I doubt it'd happen but for those who need to waste 25 billion plus on nuclear submarines it just might ... the waste storage area will be another big headache and it isn't like how it might have been with little or no security - both the plants and storage dumps will have a high cost of security attached to them on a yearly basis ... and finally realise Australia typically gets a truck load more sunshine than those places that opt and use nuclear power.

[1] https://www.ucdavis.edu/curiosity/news/anti-solar-cells-phot... (2020)

  • anenefan a year ago

    Apologies - It's dawned on me that mentioning the anti ethanol saga around Queensland's sugar industry of the 70s, 80s as something to compare to all the on paper noise of heading down the path of nuclear fission reactors for power generation, would be lost on everyone here and needs a brief explanation.

    It's actually a good example of noise (the Kelly report -1977) but it along with other BS was an effective tool for near 20 years, to scupper any calls to go the way of Brazil and their ethanol industry - hopefully providing a cheaper fuel than the rather expensive fuel esp North Queenslanders were stuck with. In the end though, the whole idea of diversifying became moot due to the industry subscribing to being locked in by the sugar futures market.

    From the late 70 to mid 90s in Queensland, every time the prospect was raised that the industry should diversify into ethanol production, as raw cane prices were at the time sending some farmers to the poor house, such ideas were met with proof from involved studies, one in particular was the Kelly report [1] [2] that proved ethanol was not worthwhile.

    By the mid 90s I think if anyone referred back to the Kelly report, in hindsight it's quite laughable, especially just looking over the first seven pages in regard to some of the assumptions their findings were based on. (Things like it might take a million people ... lol) I think a lot of people in the industry at the time took it at face value and just accepted that it would be fairly accurate given some pretty clever people had worked on it. However since I'd seen a couple of stills in action I knew it had to be BS and was a pet peeve of mine for a long time. Eventually I found a simple but effective thought experiment which took about 5 to 10 minutes to run though, it ran a comparison to a pre existing cane milling area to the petroleum industry, each step of generating the oil and fuel, compared back to a similar step in regard to a hypothetical ethanol plant sitting beside the cane mill - it was obvious that each step involving cane was far far cheaper, but at the end I'd ask how legitimate is some study that stated it cost more per unit, than what the oil refiners were receiving pre tax ... I eventually had the privilege of running the thought experiment with some of the more influential people in Queensland's sugar industry representing the state's grower base, it of course had no argument and was I thought received well and intriguing to them, with one mentioning it didn't really matter so much any more due to the obligations the cane industry had in regard to sugar contracts. However I'd guess they must have gone back and had a look at the actual ancient reports, as from that time on, as far as I can recall, the sugar industry media releases never used those BS reports again, as a basis for not going ahead with ethanol production.

    Summing up, reports and studies are what they are, and we should understand at times there are those that don't see the forest for the trees ... some are for whatever reason, are standing right up against a tree.

    [1] https://digitalcollections.qut.edu.au/1472/ [Description page for pdf but doesn't mention its 239 pages]

    [2] https://digitalcollections.qut.edu.au/1472/1/A_Feasibility_S... [pdf]

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