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The President of Iran has died

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59 points by de_nied 2 years ago · 42 comments

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ggm 2 years ago

While it might be nice to speculate about a change in posture from the government of Iran, thats very unlikely to flow from this accident: the depth of staff inside the support groups behind the current government is too deep for a rapprochement to emerge, simply because the name on the door changes. There will be plenty of "obvious candidates" without reaching outside the tent for somebody e.g. who is less harsh about scarf culture, or the green movement.

They have the option. It's always possible they will seek to take it. I think given the extent to which trade with Russia and China is working for them, and the current conflict in the Gaza strip, it's the least likely choice.

Newspapers say the vice has 50 days before an elective process. Could be election amongst the elect or national election, I am unsure.

  • xtracto 2 years ago

    Uuuh last I read the "president" of Iran is just a public figure. The real power lies in the Supreme Leader Ayatollah. So likely he will place another puppet as president and that'll be it.

    • ggm 2 years ago

      Yes, it's understood this is not the primary position of power, but it's part of the circle of governance which includes roles as "stepping stones" and it's very likely this incumbent was being groomed for the next logical position up the chain. He has a vice, who is empowered (however meaninglessly) to step into the role in the interim.

      I think you're saying the same thing as me more succinctly. It's unlikely to be a moment of change.

    • kkfx 2 years ago

      Iran have a very complex government actually: https://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/local/cache-vignettes/L890... not much up to date but I think it still reflect current state of things, just with some different names.

    • basch 2 years ago

      Supreme Leader is like Charmain of the Board.

      President is like COO/CFO.

de_niedOP 2 years ago

Additional drone footage of crash site: https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1792394111091458484

hnthrowaway0328 2 years ago

Old helicopter, foggy and mountain terrain. Not a good combination...

mlinhares 2 years ago

Is there an index of the risk of private flights somewhere?

It definitely feels like most accidents are on private flights when there are many more commercial flights.

  • rockemsockem 2 years ago

    I feel like the more useful thing here is helicopter risk. Helicopters are very unsafe in general as I understand things.

    • iancmceachern 2 years ago

      I have a buddy that grew up in Hawaii and he would never get on one.

      Looking it up briefly it looks like there are 1-2 crashes per year just in Hawaii, that seems like too many for me

      https://www.sfgate.com/hawaii/article/hawaii-sightseeing-tou...

    • mlinhares 2 years ago

      Its mind boggling to me that people risk their lives and pay for "helicopter rides" here in Orlando, a city that is FLAT and there's nothing to be seen as you can't fly over Disney.

    • yawpitch 2 years ago

      Well, that’s certainly one way of saying you don’t understand things.

      Helicopters are, arguably, safer than fixed wing aircraft, simply because they can autorotate down to a soft landing from a complete engine failure and with loss of forward velocity. They’re also by nature VTOL, so you can more or less put them down on any flat surface big enough, while a fixed wing always requires a long enough path to lose energy on.

      The only reason helicopters appear at all riskier is the roles to which they’re put, and their ability to hover means they’re often put into situations that are much more likely to risk rotor blade strike and loss than any fixed wing aircraft is likely to risk an impact on its prop or fan blades.

      • kkfx 2 years ago

        Planes can glide in case of engine failures, something FAR easier than a successful autorotation... Of course they still need a place to glide to the ground, gliding capacity of a typical plane it's not those of a glider, but even if a chopper successfully autorotate finding a reachable place it's not simpler, the range around is far, far shorter than a high altitude gliding airplane.

        Also wings are fixed passive stuff in 99% of plain, of course thy can crack, but far less likely than a rotor mechanical failure...

        • yawpitch 2 years ago

          A fixed wing aircraft that loses power is automatically a glider, and a helicopter that loses power is automatically autorotating, what you’re talking about is successfully walking away from the resulting landing. Well, assuming loss of all engine power without the possibility of restart or the contribution of any secondary or emergency power systems, where the pilot’s ability to balance lift with gravity is the only concern, then I’d definitely take my chances in an autorotating commercial helicopter over a gliding commercial jet of the same weight and passenger count and starting at the same height and potential energy state over the same city any day.

        • vidanay 2 years ago

          What's that saying? "A helicopter is 10,000 parts flying in close formation around an oil leak."

          • kkfx 2 years ago

            Ehm, sorry I do not understand, maybe it's my limited English but I do not get what you are saying...

    • dzhiurgis 2 years ago

      For certain geographies they are necessary (esp if you wanna flex). Equal trips in car+plane would take forever.

  • neves 2 years ago

    I feel like they aren't very safe if you are considered an usa enemy

jimbob45 2 years ago

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebrahim_Raisi

His Wikipedia is kinda funny under Personal Details - Died (probably only for a few more minutes)

tengbretson 2 years ago

Was he riding in a Gräf & Stift?

  • candiodari 2 years ago

    Apparently it was a Bell helicopter repaired by Russians.

    • dingaling 2 years ago

      Not 'by Russians'.

      Iran has had indigenous repair and overhaul facilities for its Bell fleet since the 1970s. The huge facility at Isfahan was built by Bell as part of the massive contracts in the Shah's era and had been operating ever since.

      • Log_out_ 2 years ago

        Should mention what a total powerhouse iran is compared to the rest of rhr middle east (excluding israel, reicluding turkey).

jerlam 2 years ago

Reminder that the President of Iran is not the head of government. That would be the Supreme Leader of Iran, where the same person has been incumbent for the past 35 years. There may not be a significant impact.

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