Reddit Files to Go Public, in First Social Media IPO in Years
nytimes.com$5B is definitely a lot more realistic than the $15B valuation they were targeting in 2022, but IMO Reddit is still not a sustainable business as it stands today. So many investors have had their money tied up for over a decade will little to no growth and are going to be scrambling for an exit on IPO day. Revenues are barely growing, losses are increasing. I don't see a rosy future for this stock.
Unlikely sustainable without innovations. A payday for stakeholders and then popular-brand bagholders magnet, possibly a buy-rumor-sell-before-quarterly-report playtoy. I wouldn't expect UX increase and the question is how long the enshittification-revenue balance will be kept steady.
They haven't innovated in years. The only real changes to reddit have been a cosmetic re-work and release of an app for mobile use.
Well, that and the API changes that drove away something like a third of the users.
It’s run incompetently just at the moment. You have a golden opportunity right now with the enshittification problem. How many people put Reddit after the KW in search? If it’s opened up maybe it’ll get better management.
The only thing that really has value at Reddit right now seems to be their giant archive of user generated posts. It is certainly going to be interesting come IPO day.
They had a free dataset containing data up to 2020: https://www.reddit.com/r/bigquery/comments/kyjqbt/there_used...
Reddit is 90% noise, a lot of the content is going to be "meme reply" type comments, to topics posted by karma bots.
This is the way
[dupe]
More discussion on the official S1: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39472782
The S-1 filing: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1713445/000162828024...
Valuation of $5 billion would buy P/S 6.3 with negative P/E for 18 year old non-innovating company that is already in the second phase of enshittification.
The company actually would have been profitable in 2023 if it didn't pay out >$200M in combined compensation to the CEO and COO.
Edit: cfo -> coo
They didn't pay $200M.
They gave stock options. Actual pay is just few million.
These figures are from the S-1 and the compensation includes both stock options + awards.
Yes they are and stock options are almost all of the compensation.
Oh, I see what you mean.
They might still pull it off anyway with their data play given AI hype
And by pull it off I mean original investors get out and someone else is left holding bag
It would be really surprising given that all of the data up to 2020 is already out there. They made a deal to give a firehose of data to an ai company and it was only for 60 million.
But licensing will be bigger. And big money will be pushing it as an edge / moat—one of the few they have.
Yep. I don’t see how this is worth billions either but that seems to be the play.
Google might want their post 2020 data to lobotomize the next generation of Gemini
"I'm sorry, as a heckin wholesome 100 roboterino, I can't generate any content that spreads dangerous misinformation about our sponsors."
This seems like a last ditch effort to make it relevant again.
I always thought it would have been neat if the users themselves had pooled resources and bought it up.
It could have been extremely valuable, but at this point management has been clearly outed as having no idea what they are doing.