Nvidia Announces Financial Results for Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2024
investor.nvidia.comI'll repost. Imagine shorting Nvidia in July 2023 last year at $500 because it seemed overvalued or overextended. Now at $700 like nothing. It goes to show how markets are more rational than assumed , in terms of correctly pricing in future earnings.
It's not irrational exuberance, but rational. yes, a 200% rally was rational in terms of pricing in huge earnings, not a bubble. The huge rally this year was in anticipation of the blow-out earnings on Ai demand, which materialized.
The 1997-2000 period in which stock prices wildly departed from fundamentals was more of an anomaly than the norm, yet people assume that it's the norm. The late 90s and tech boom and early 2000s crash was an outlier that made people overly pessimistic in subsequent decades.
Let's discuss this again in 3 years.
Nvidia is still very expensive and has 5 years of nothing revenue and earnings growth baked in.
Nvidia is a 77% tax on every AI investment collected upstream. the valuation is entirely reasonable because speed matters in the landgrab period and nobody sells horses. By the time others do, the land has been grabbed.
It’s really not that expensive though. The PE ratio is frankly quite normal in today’s markets. When TSLA was on its insane run its PE was an order of magnitude higher. NVDA is nowhere near bubble levels of valuation yet.
Imagine shorting Nvidia in July 2023 last year at $500 because it seemed overvalued or overextended.
Oh, I don’t have to imagine:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37241696
(Granted, selling covered calls isn’t exactly shorting, and I still made bank on the whole deal. But plenty of money was left on the table.)
> a 200% rally
200% rally or $200 rally? Are you talking about the rally from $500 to $700?
Revenue +8% over expected.
Earnings +12% over expected.
guiding for the Q1 +9.6 over expected.
New P/E about 45 (from trailing 12 months)
77% gross margins <mic drop>
So if you are bought in on AI demand over the next ~3 years, what companies are you buying stock in?
AMD GPUs are being rolled out to HPC, the interface is a far cry from CUDA but open source. It would be a risky bet, like being non-bitcoins after seeing bitcoin's price balloon.
Campbell's and Franz?
The only things left the rest of us can afford to eat.
Meta, Google, Palantir, Microsoft
Palantir's PE is 253.
That’s admittedly high, but their growth is also very high (the commercial business grew 36% last year and they expect 40% this year) which makes the stock attractive.
The gov business is growing slower, but the wins come in waves and those contacts are incredibly sticky
They sold the world on being a big data company, when the market soured on that, they sold the world on being an AI company. I, for one look forward to what the future brings.
Don’t you think those two things compliment each other? Whether they’re chasing clout or are just executing well based on the latest technology is up for debate, but I think they’re onto something big
More discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39459762