Toyota claims battery breakthrough in potential boost for electric cars
theguardian.comJapanese firm believes it *could* make a solid-state battery...
The key word here is obviously *could*.
Add one more to the pile of claims and beliefs floating around that have yet to transform into viable products.
I have been a Toyota fan from way back. I have owned a number of their vehicles. But in my mind, they lost a lot of technical credibility when they tried to apply political influence in a short sighted attempt to steer the marketplace toward hydrogen.
This was really just a thinly veiled effort to prolong the marketplace viability of the internal combustion engine --- to the detriment of the global environment.
Exactly this. Hydrogen is like crypto. It has just enough interesting tech to attract (using D&D terminology here) high INT, low WIS people.
Hydrogen will probably never work unless someone comes up with a stable molecule that includes hydrogen, is large enough to not move through solid objects, and still retains enough chemical energy to be useful. Ammonium is one option, but it is highly toxic. Only really practical in cargo ships.
Hydrogen also can be useful for inherently expensive things like rockets and jet planes. But never cars.
It was never going to compete with electric. EVs have been slandered for so long that people just assumed we would come up with something better. But EVs are great. Driving an ICE car after being in a Tesla feels like playing a first-person shooter over dial-up.
I would not underestimate the amount of weight behind the development and commercialization of hydrogen technology. Everyone in the oil and gas industry, including natural gas utilities, has a strong incentive to figure out how to make it work.
Literally everyone has a massive incentive to make green hydrogen work. It is pretty fundamental to industry, manufacturing, agriculture, transportation, etc. There is no path to zero emissions without it. In reality, just a handful of vocal BEV fans oppose this technology on purely personal grounds.
I'm one of those vocal opponents for hydrogen cars, but I do like the technology in general. I'm a huge fan of hydrogen for agriculture, forestry, and other big applications where grid access is really challenging and even small gaps to recharge are unacceptable. Personal transport just doesn't make the list.
Hydrogen won't ever make sense for personal transportation since the cost of batteries has come down way too far. Green hydrogen under perfect conditions has way too many efficiency penalties to compete with pure battery vehicles, so the cost per unit distance just won't ever make sense compared to the tiny losses for batteries.
I don't even care that much if companies like Toyota want to waste their development dollars on personal hydrogen transport that won't ever happen. I just want to make sure subsidy dollars are spent correctly. Use government money on decarbonizing farms and long distance heavy transport with hydrogen. Don't waste that money on cars that will always be too expensive to operate compared with BEVs.
That’s absurd. Hydrogen cars will drop to costs comparable to ICE cars. It is a massive reduction in raw material needs. Not to mention the millions of people who need fast public refueling since they do not have access to home chargers.
People are stuck in an innovation trap with BEVs. It is pretty much what Clay Christensen wrote about in his book Innovator’s Dilemma. You cannot just linearly improve a single idea until it surpasses all other ideas, now and forever. Especially one that has many limits as BEVs. It is inevitable that there will be step functions in change, i.e. disruptive changes, coming to the market. Forward thinking companies will plan for that inevitability, not pretend BEVs are the final destination of personal transportation.
The world has already squandered billions of dollars on every kind of green technology. That could easily imply BEVs themselves. It is the biggest of double standards to not insist on hydrogen subsidies. If you truly oppose the idea, then oppose all subsidies for all green energy. If not, then accept hydrogen subsidies as a good idea.
There was a time 150 years ago national grids didn't even exist as a concept. Now you're never more than 10 ft from a plug at any given moment when inside a city. A current lack of places to charge is easy to build out of.
I'm for hydrogen subsidies, just not for personal transport. Use the money for heavy transport, agriculture, and forestry. If that also happens to make fuel cells cheaper all around and changes the economics of fuel cell vehicles, that's fine, just don't subsidize hydrogen personal cars directly because it's deeply unlikely they will ever be more than a curiosity.
Thermodynamics means green hydrogen always has to pay the round trip conversion loss, so it will always be more expensive than raw electricity. I do agree there is opportunity to soak up excess renewable generation with hydrogen, but if you're right about hydrogen demand that won't ever affect the price more than a few %. Raw, direct electricity use will always be cheaper, so people will figure out ways to make that arbitrage work for them in ways other than hydrogen storage.
The lack of losses with batteries will mean there is a huge incentive to shoehorn them into anything where it possibly makes sense. That doesn't necessarily mean current lithium chemistry and that's where your innovation will come from.
The grid was not designed for everyone to charge large BEVs with them. Nor are there DC fast chargers on every block. And I’m not sure what 150 years ago had to do with anything. Today, we will build whatever infrastructure will allow for cheap transportation. Which technically is mass transit, but because of other factors we chose a much more expensive route with cars. But if we insist on having cars, it makes more sense to have a system that allows for rapid refueling all the time. That will enable everyone to have a single refueling system. So basically the gas station model, which implies hydrogen cars as the future.
Again, hydrogen cars can be as cheap as ICE cars to manufacture. Your argument here is pure shortsightedness and is insisting on a double standards. What was the cost of BEVs when they first came out? It took subsidies to drive cost down in the early days. Same is true for hydrogen cars. As mass production expands, hydrogen cars will get cheaper until they are cheaper than BEVs.
You do not understand the thermodynamics of the subject matter. Again, electrolyzers/fuel cells are an electrochemical systems. It basically doesn’t have “thermal-dynamics”. Theoretical efficiency is the same as li-ion batteries. A fuel cell car is effectively the equivalent of a battery car whose battery is made from water. Although there are practical issues to deal with in reality, so this isn’t totally the case, but it is much closer to being true than what you’re imagining.
If you can understand that electrolyzers/fuel cells are functionally the same thing as li-ion batteries, and are subject to the same basic physics, then the real conclusion is to replace li-ion batteries with hydrogen systems wherever possible. After all, if the long-term level of efficiency will be parity between the two, then why insist on the one that is much more resource dependent?
I have no issues with the efficiency of fuel cells. It's the overall efficiency of producing hydrogen in the first place. The "well-to-wheel" efficiency (though with green hydrogen there isn't an actual well). It's very energy intensive to create green hydrogen, far more so than charging a battery. Losses on green hydrogen are 50-60% of total energy used compared to <5% on a battery. That's a huge energy deficit to overcome that will always result in an opex difference. That's why I'm bearish on hydrogen for personal transport, but bullish on it for things like very long distance trains and farm use.
The whole wells-to-wheels efficiency is theoretically the same as doing it with a li-ion battery. The whole process is electrochemical. So there's no hard rule why this can't be as efficient as batteries.
This also ignores the realities of renewable energy. The first thing to point out is that renewable energy is terribly inefficient. Solar panels are only 20% efficient and have terrible load factors. And even then, you'll lose most of it without energy storage. As it turns out, a hypothetical system with just renewable energy and li-ion batteries is actually wasting a lot of energy. These problems shrink dramatically with hydrogen since you now have a huge amount of available energy storage. In fact, you can't even reach 100% zero emissions without hydrogen, since long periods of low sunlight and wind occur fairly often, requiring a backup energy source.
Long story short, the efficiency argument is just FUD. People who promote it have no idea what the realities of energy production will actually look like. It's just something people say to block innovation or maintain the status quo.
Your statements conflate a number of unrelated elements. Solar panels not converting 100% of the sunlight that hits them has no impact on the "well to wheel" number for either batteries or hydrogen.
Right now it takes ~53kWh to make 1 kg of h2, which stores ~34 kWh of energy. Right away a fuel cell vehicle operator needs to pay for an additional 20 kWh of energy for every kg of h2 before they can move an inch. Toyota Mirai consumes about 0.8 kg/100 km, so those 53 kWh of energy move the car about 125 km. That's 42 kWh/100km. My Model 3 SR+ recently consumed 35 kWh to travel 258 km or about 14 kWh/100km. The Mirai takes 3 times as much energy to move as I used on a recent trip. That efficiency gap is a gulf; no matter how cheap creating and distributing hydrogen gets it will always use a lot more power than just putting that power in a battery. I agree hydrogen has a place in the economy, but only where batteries are too large/heavy for the application or the grid is too far away.
You are guilty of your own accusation. You are conflating many things together. For starters, you are completely ignoring all upstream losses like charging losses, transmission losses, or energy storage losses. You do not magically get energy from a solar panel to the wheels in a BEV. You need to include all of the losses it took to get it there. But the reverse is rarely true, since critics of hydrogen are always including those upstream losses.
Another thing is that you cannot just make up a number and say this is the only possible outcome. Electrolysis efficiency is a moving target, and depending on circumstances, can be dropped to as low as 39 kWh/kg for water electrolysis and even to 33 kWh for steam electrolysis. Note that there are electrothermal processes gives you effectively free steam (like solar thermal or nuclear), so the latter number is fully possible. In the long run, you have to assume that it will not be that inefficient.
Same is true of BEV efficiency. 14 kWh/100km is pretty low of a figure. Not realistic in normal driving for most people. Not to mention you are comparing a compact car to a much larger car. If people are buying SUV sized BEVs, you won't get those numbers. And no, it is not guaranteed that a BEV will always be more efficient. Fuel cells are continuously getting more efficient and if the goal is have big cars with long ranged batteries, battery weight becomes a real problem. There are scenarios where BEVs will lose in efficiency.
Also, a lot of the upside of hydrogen is that you avoid all of the cost associated with batteries. It take less money and resources to make a hydrogen car compared to a battery car. These need to be accounted for in some way. Finally, one major problem is the huge and unpredictable surplus production of renewable energy. There are reasons why we see zero and negatively priced electricity on the grid. There is no realistic way of capturing it all using batteries. But you can capture most of it via hydrogen. That effectively gives you free hydrogen, and is functionally a way to reduce waste.
Ultimately, hydrogen production just continues the logic of wind and solar economics. Neither wind nor solar are particularly efficient, but it doesn't matter because you are using effectively infinite resources. It cost nearly nothing to keep renewable energy farms going. And likewise, it will cost nearly nothing to use that power to drive water electrolysis. The costs will trend towards zero.
Charging my car doesn't require more than my A/C, or oven, or clothes dryer. Good thing my car charges overnight, when I'm not drying clothes or cooking, and my A/C does quite a bit less work.
> it makes more sense to have a system that allows for rapid refueling all the time
I don't need that. That is a very rare need for me, and it's so infrequent that I'm ok with it taking a little longer than a gas pump.
> ...I don't need that. That is a very rare need for me, and it's so infrequent that I'm ok with it taking a little longer than a gas pump.
"Time is money friend!"
Emergency services, law enforcement, delivery services, long-range transport services, etc... all require rapid refueling. Each and every one.
Your single use case does not a society make.
And those are a tiny fraction of the cars on the road. Even then, there are police departments and delivery services using electric vehicles. I don't advocate 100% removal of ICE cars. A variety of solutions will likely be needed.
Time is money is great when you’ve waiting at the hydrogen refueling stating for the chillers to be ready again after the person in front of you just used them.
> Literally everyone has a massive incentive to make green hydrogen work.
There is also the reality that certain company have taken a lot of money for a long time without producing many results. Specially if its fossil fuel companies that rubs people the wrong way. Just as giving money to Ford and GM wasn't the solution to get EV going. So its understandable that many people don't love the promotion of it.
I am as anti-hydrogen as anybody but I do believe it has a place. However, it should be limited and only used in places where you really need it. So instead of using it in transportation, using it in the chemical industry makes much more sense. Its simply not needed for the overwhelming majority of transportation applications. And even for the the stuff that is left over its often questionable if its worth developing the new infrastructure. Using it for personal vehicle and most cargo transport is utterly idiotic. Using it for most trains is idiotic. The list goes on.
Some people believe the massive steel CO2 use will be solved with hydrogen, but as with transport, there are better ways forward then that in my opinion. But again, hydrogen is getting the lions share of investment there too.
In general I am much more against they 'hydrogen economy' idea and concept, rather then hydrogen. Using energy to split water is reasonable, but most of the time hydrogen is just a short temporary state until it gets turned into something else. Very different from the hydrogen economy people in-visioned.
Another question is if electrolysis of access renewable production is really a great path forward.
These are opinions based on profound ignorance. Many sectors can never reach zero emissions without hydrogen. Things like airplanes and ships. You must invest in the infrastructure no matter what.
And how can you have hydrogen for steel production without necessarily reducing the cost to the ballpark of coal or natural gas? If you can grasp that part, you should realize that it must be a cheap fuel in the future. Cheap enough that it can be easily affordable for transportation purposes. And for those who can't afford BEVs or don't have access to chargers, that is major motivation to pursue hydrogen cars.
Ultimately, you're left with many unsolvable problems if you try to tackle climate change without looking at hydrogen where it is applicable. You also need to think seriously about the downside of alternative ideas, and not pretend they are magically perfect. Batteries are heavy and expensive, nor are they environmental friendly to produce. If you see hydrogen as a far greener type of energy storage, then you will see there are upsides too. In other words, you are only looking at the cons, not the pros and the cons.
The waste majority of ships will be battery powered, even cargo ships, as most cargo transport is local and short route. Same goes for planes. For the rest hydrogen is just a in between product, directly turning it into things like methanol or jet fuel.
Steel and other metals can be made with direct Molten Oxide Electrolysis. That is a far better path forward then hydrogen.
> You also need to think seriously about the downside of alternative ideas, and not pretend they are magically perfect.
Given your absurd defense of hydrogen cars, I will just say, look in the mirror.
> Batteries are heavy and expensive, nor are they environmental friendly to produce. If you see hydrogen as a far greener type of energy storage, then you will see there are upsides too.
As a complete engineering solution end to end, batteries are far more environmentally friendly, far more efficient and far cheaper. Let alone if you also include infrastructure cost. Anybody who seriously investigates these things will come to the same conclusions.
Globally, annually, there is roughly 850 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) worth of containerized goods handled at ports worldwide.
Aside from container shipping there is raw bulk material shipping, eg: Western Australia ships > 800 million tonnes of raw ores to China annually (not local, not light).
Looking at just container shipping and the major major routes; there is
* 42 million TEU's intra asia (within asia, 'local' but not necc. 'short')
* 42 million TEU's 'far east' to Europe + North America.
and then a long tail of lesser volume routes, many quite lengthy (asia -> south americas, north | south americas, etc.)
Point being by "vast majority" are you talking raw ship numbers (there are many small ships) or cargo volumes | weights?
There is a truly vast amount of heavy tonnages being moved long distances and these consume the majority of shipping energy.
If this is your line of argument then it deserves some refining to move past a handwave.
Maybe 'vast majority' is an overestimation but there is a quite a lot of it.
People underestimate how many routes can be done with battery powered ships.
> If this is your line of argument then it deserves some refining to move past a handwave.
My argument was not limited to that. I also said there are other solution that are not direct usage of hydrogen.
First up, I'm pro energy transition, so I'm essentially 'on your side'.
I'd still like to see you make better arguments and work on the real world details (if you can be bothered) which will take time if you apply yourself.
eg: batteries
Sure .. somewhere there is the future.
Right now, though, the largest installer of city scale battery parks in the world Neoen has yet to crack 10 GW installed:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NeoenAs at 31 December 2021, the company's total capacity was 5.4 GW, made up of 50% solar, 38% wind and 12% battery storage. Neoen aims to attain 10 GW in operation and under construction by 2025.That's total globally after successively installing the three successive "biggest battery parks in the world" each larger than the other.
For a comparison point, Germany (a single mid sized European country) has a lowest overnight baseload minimum draw of 40 GW (all night long .. an then it ramps up).
Realistically batteries must scale to being able to provide 40 GW for an hour (or more!) .. which is provision of power x length of time.
And from there to scale out by a 100 and more locations.
So, there's some way to go here.
As for hydrogen and steel .. before you wave that away it might be worth looking into the concrete plans by the largest raw material providers for the largest steel plants globally.
https://www.fmgl.com.au/in-the-news/media-releases/2021/06/0...
https://www.fmgl.com.au/in-the-news/media-releases/2023/06/1...
These are the concrete plans of those who are committed to climate action, have access to world class engineers, and already provide 100's of millions of tonnes of raw iron ore per year to steel production already.
You don't have to agree with them, but they are taking action with several billion in capital backing them, so it pays to understand what they intend.
Tesla has far more then 10GW installed globally.
That said, I am against using batteries, specifically lithium batteries for grid stabilization. I much rather not have grids that need that, sadly politically this is where we are going. To actually have grid stabilizing on a large scale with batteries, new battery technologies will have to come online. Things like 'Form Energy' and stuff like that. Neither batteries nor hydrogen currently are actually good solutions. Hydrogen has a bunch of issues in this application and if you look at totally deployed vs batteries its tiny. Again, reality doesn't seem to believe hydrogen is this great grid stability solution.
I rather have nuclear and not need anything other then maybe some Lithium for peak shaving and grid stabilization. But sadly we don't live in that reality, specially in Germany.
Germany has the delusional believe that they will get cheap hydrogen from Australia and Canada. Lots of plans and 'understanding' in reality Australia doesn't even have enough green electricity to make its own grid green, and they are way behind on things like electrification for cars, trains and trucks. Australia has a very, very, very long way to go, the idea that there will be some large cheap export of Green Hydrogen from Australia in my opinion is just fantasy pushed by some politically connected people in both countries who are selling a fantasy to get government money.
The claims from 2021 that by 2023 there will be all this green hydrogen from Australia, mmmhh we are in 2023 and I like to see some data on how much import there is from Australia right now. Again, lots of announcements, lots plans, lots of 'understanding' but tiny actual numbers.
Politically steel companies are under pressure to do something. They can mix hydrogen into their existing processes and make them slightly greener. Its kind of like Hybrid cars. It will make steel more expensive and many of the plans to really scale this relay on cheap green hydrogen to really be competitive. I'm not against it but I think moving to MOE is gone both cheaper and greener.
P.S:
> Germany, the country that is leading the fight against the global warming challenge in Europe
Pretty funny claims from the country with the dirtiest energy mix in Western Europe.
> Tesla has far more then 10GW installed globally.
Good to hear - can you provide a link to back that up?
The company I linked above installed the Tesla battery parks that are the the three largest in the world and as their current total (including those) is under 10 GW I'd like to know about the others that make up your total.
> P.S: .. Germany ..
You haven't quoted me, that's not a claim I made.
I simply used Germany as an example of one Europeans's minimum overnight baseload - feel free to pick another.
> can you provide a link to back that up?
Tesla is doing more and more pretty fast, they are up to 4GW per Quarter currently.
Its all in their official numbers:
https://ir.tesla.com/#quarterly-disclosure
About 10GW Q1 to Q1, but that number continue to go up pretty fast.
I can't name all the people they sold all this to. There are lots of individual projects from 100MW to 500MW and lots of individual batteries. I believe in California there is a 1GW project somewhere. There have announced a number of GW scale projects.
I don't have all the links to all the projects but you should track them down in various news articles.
This is seriously detached from reality. Cargo ships do not travel short routes, and "short-haul" airflight is far beyond the ranges of battery powered airplanes. You are completely ignoring physics here.
MOE has not actually been invented yet, and there is no evidence it will be either cheap nor scalable. It's currently very expensive and requires plenty of exotic materials to work even as a concept.
No one is claiming hydrogen cars are perfect. But you are making highly delusional claims about batteries. Many of them are totally impossible.
It's pretty obvious that you have never thought about these problems. It's just a serious of assertions from the marketing department of BEV companies designed to shut down critical thinking. The fact is, a hydrogen infrastructure is cheaper than a battery infrastructure. That is simply due to the nature of pipelines versus wire. A pipe is hollow but a wire is not.
So it is 5-10x cheaper to make and move hydrogen around compared to electricity: https://spectrum.ieee.org/green-hydrogen-offshore-wind
Reality doesn't not favor batteries or excessive electrification.
You are the one making argument for hydrogen powered cars and that's totally detached from actual reality.
> Cargo ships do not travel short routes
With short I mean not crossing major oceans. Battery powered ships can do a lot of routes.
> MOE has not actually been invented yet, and there is no evidence it will be either cheap nor scalable. It's currently very expensive and requires plenty of exotic materials to work even as a concept.
Both of these claims are just plain false.
> The fact is, a hydrogen infrastructure is cheaper than a battery infrastructure. That is simply due to the nature of pipelines versus wire.
That is such a terrible and utterly idiotic oversimplification.
The reality is, one of these exists and we can make realistic estimate, hydrogen infrastructure simply doesn't exist.
> So it is 5-10x cheaper to make and move hydrogen around compared to electricity: https://spectrum.ieee.org/green-hydrogen-offshore-wind
A bunch of small trial projects supported by governments, that make grand claims.
You like to talk about reality, in reality of the 100s of GW of wind turbines, basically non use hydrogen as an energy transport. And the waste majority of announced new wind projects do not plan to produce hydrogen in the future.
> Reality doesn't not favor batteries or excessive electrification.
And yet in actual reality, you know the one we actually live in, electrification is happening with ever increasing speed and the hydrogen industry barley exists and as far as it does it is almost completely driven by state investments.
Its pretty fucking rich to claim 'in reality' when actual reality is suggesting the exact opposite.
Except the most important routes are about crossing oceans. Asia to Europe or Asia to North America are very important routes. You pretty much hand waved major details here.
Then show me a working MOE system. I'd love to be enlightened about a working system that went beyond lab experiment.
You're the one ignoring actual expertise here. Here more people with expertise making the same claim: https://www.brinknews.com/could-hydrogen-replace-the-need-fo...
> It is about 10 times cheaper to transport energy by a hydrogen pipeline than by an electric cable.
At some point you are simply rejecting evidence without any counterevidence of your own.
The reason why we turn use hydrogen to transport energy right now is because the technology wasn't available until recently. But that is changing: https://www.greencarcongress.com/2023/04/20230411-h2pipeline...
As the technology becomes available, economics will dictate more hydrogen infrastructure.
Your simply misinformed. Hydrogen investment is enormous in its totality: https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/news/hydrogen-projects-inve...
All you're doing is making wild assertions without evidence.
> 10 times cheaper.
This is a bogus claim. Show us some hydrogen pipelines that are in operation which are thousands of kilometres in length.
And the cost is per energy. Which energy? Output energy when you get electricity at the other end? Or chemical potential energy in the H2, which is meaningless since we can’t get it all.
Are you really going to go around and dismiss properly sourced claims? Where is your counterevidence? And no, you cannot just concern troll your way around this. There are people with real credentials making these claims. You cannot dismiss them without evidence of your own.
People who make grand claims based on small trial projects that have almost no commercial traction, unless you can show a source that this technology is going to have exponential growth in the next couple years.
And 'people with credentials' also believed in hydrogen cars and wide deployment of synfuels for automotive. There are lots of claims made over the last 20 years by people with credentials. But I guess you still believe in hydrogen cars so its probably not worth having this debate.
You’re just a short-sighted naysayer. Guys like you are repeating the same garbage that anti-wind and anti-solar people said in the past. All you’re doing is proving that you have no interest in progress.
Lithium batteries and improvements in battery technology is more recent then hydrogen. You are the one holding one to an outdated relic of the past claiming it to be the future.
Wind and solar are replacing fossil fuels (or in the rare case of Germany, nuclear). Hydorgen cars by the time they could finally come about would be replacing already carbon free battery cars.
Hilariously enough is not only are you holding on to a relic of the past, you are also defending a technology that is far less energy efficient and is not even green, and wont be for many decades.
You can't just declare something progress because it has always been progress. Its simply a technology that has already been overtaken by something far better before it was ever deployed. That is really progress. What you are doing is declaring something the future and then holding on to it forever and claiming that its the only possible progress.
So in reality you are the one not actually looking to progress, but defending historical idea of progress.
The idea of lithium batteries dates back to the 1910s. It is not a new idea. But this is irrelevant because both had their major advancements more recently.
The fundamental problem with batteries is that they're heavy, highly resource dependent, and take a very long time to recharge. This is not going to change unless you take extreme measure like battery swapping. Furthermore, as the world shifts towards SUV sized BEVs, it becomes its own environmental and societal menace. This is a doomed idea in the long-run.
The thing about fuel cell cars is that they are also EVs. They are basically the same idea as BEVs, just without the giant batteries. This gives us far greater flexibility. You can even envision the idea of plug-in fuel cell cars, eliminate pretty much any real arguments against them as a general idea. Everything can be shifted towards zero emissions just like BEVs.
And because FCEVs do not have the huge batteries of BEVs, they are fundamentally more sustainable. And if you are aware that they are also EVs, then they should eventually close whatever efficiency gap you imagine them having. Ensuring that the long-term world will be one dominated by FCEVs.
These are all simple and straightforward bits of reasoning. It does not take much effort to see that FCEVs are the future, and the only question is when. BEV fanatics like you are just spamming FUD against them, many of which are total red herrings. These are terrible arguments and all it does is undermine the credibility of BEVs. In fact, these are signs of a technology that is running out of steam, not a technology on the rise. If you need to lie to defend your business, then you are headed down the path of Reddit and Twitter, just waiting until some disruptive event drives you out of business.
This is not a properly sourced claim at all.
You have a source from where you heard about it, but if you open up the link the person simply states this as fact. They do not back up their claim with any facts or sources, they simply say it.
The onus is not on me to provide counter evidence for an unsubstantiated claim. The onus is on the person making the claim to provide evidence backing it up.
The person in question is a expert in the field and has decades of researching green energy topics. That is considered evidence. It is you who is just making shit up. You are literally expecting everyone to just accept your words. We merely want evidence instead.
> The person in question is a expert in the field and has decades of researching green energy topics. That is considered evidence.
No, that considered an appeal to authority.
Then you plainly don't know what that means. Appeal to authority means trusting someone who doesn't know the answer but you imply that that person does, or that the argument doesn't need evidence beyond the words of a person. It doesn't refer to actual experts in the field who have done actual research.
As I said from the outset, you are free to present any counterevidence. Heck, even a person of similar expertise saying otherwise. Anything more than you denying it.
That's a completely ignorant statement. Hydrogen cars actually exist and work exactly as advertised. There are no fundamental challenges. This reads like one of those anti-BEV posts from a decade ago. In both cases, the author is totally oblivious to the current state of technology.
> It was never going to compete with electric. EVs have been slandered for so long that people just assumed we would come up with something better.
Hydrogen cars are EVs. This is a deep misunderstanding of the issue.
The production and storage of hydrogen is expensive, had the downside of requiring a large tank in the car and is less efficient than just using a battery.
The cost will drop to nearly zero, just like the rest of renewable energy production. Tanks are cheaper, smaller and lighter than li-ion batteries. Fuel cell cars are also EVs, just like BEVs. The "efficiency problem" is greatly exaggerated.
> The cost will drop to nearly zero, just like the rest of renewable energy production
How and why? I could say the same thing about batteries..
I assume hydrogen might be the best option for lorries and other heavy vehicles but what are its advantages for personal cars?
Batteries will always been heavy and be dependent on large quantities of mined materials. The advantage of hydrogen is that it is made from water. So the raw materials used to make hydrogen will trend towards zero, similar to what happened with wind and solar.
> Hydrogen cars actually exist and work exactly as advertised.
And if by that you mean very badly and very impractically then you are correct.
> There are no fundamental challenges.
Except, you know building them cheap at volume. Just a small thing.
> This reads like one of those anti-BEV posts from a decade ago.
Except it also reads like anti-Hydrogen EV post from a decade ago and since then BEV have made utterly insane amount of progress and hydrogen vehicles are still in the utterly sorry and embracing state they were 10 years ago.
> Hydrogen cars are EVs.
The Toyota Mirai is a hydrogen Fuel Cell car.
BMW tried to create a hydrogen ICE: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMW_Hydrogen_7
I probably should have said "fuel cell cars are EVs." But yes, you can make an ICE powered by hydrogen. It is likely to be a niche product, mainly sports cars and perhaps some diesel engine replacements.
Drive a new Supra and you will be disavowed of this notion. They are hella torquey with no lag. Outperforms EVs in many ways.
Supra isn't a Toyota; it's a BMW, so it isn't exactly helping the case that Toyota is on the right development path. They have to use a partner for high performance applications since they can't be bothered to develop their own.
B58 is a truly great combustion engine, but the idea any turbocharged ICE can compete with an electric motor for input lag is ridiculous. B58's twin scroll turbos certainly reduce lag compared with more run-of-the-mill turbo engines, but even naturally aspirated race engines with light flywheels feel laggy after driving even low-end BEVs.
Another key word is "Toyota" -- even if the battery tech is great, is Toyota really going to start making EVs or selling batteries? Japanese manufacturers have been dragging their feet on full EVs, possibly because the domestic Japanese grid can't really support EVs.
possibly because the domestic Japanese grid can't really support EVs.
The domestic grid has no impact on most Toyota/Japanese cars which are exported or built elsewhere --- often using engines made in Japan.
This was about saving a large segment of the Japanese economy which is centered around the internal combustion engine and associated expertise and know how.
https://cleantechnica.com/2021/11/15/toyotas-team-japan-aims...
Very similar to Germany. Als tooting the hydrogen horn.. Again similar to Germany. A wild pattern of sabotaging the successor by naming his little brother king emerges.
They’ve been selling the Bz4x for about a year now which is basically an electric RAV4
It’s comically bad. The charging curve is horrible, entertainment system is a joke, doesn’t look appealing and has issues with retaining charge on the 12 volt battery.
Not to mention the wheels falling off.
It's almost like they released a bad car in an attempt to give EVs a bad name.
Don't their hydrogen cars use fuel cells. Ie they use electric motors not ic engines
Yes but you're missing the point.
The infrastructure needed to fully support hydrogen would take decades to develop. Starting with some way to efficiently manufacture hydrogen without using even more fossil fuels.
It's the stall that they wanted --- to give them more time to milk ICE and adapt.
There is no corresponding infrastructure delay for EVs which are already being adopted.
Toyota has actually pivoted and partnered with Mazada to share tech to fill watch other's gaps. Toyota is releasing a full electric car in about 12-15 months.
Yes --- they're now being forced to play catch-up after their ridiculous attempt at diversion went nowhere.
Here is what they were spouting less than 2 years ago.
https://cleantechnica.com/2021/11/15/toyotas-team-japan-aims...“By promoting further collaboration in producing, transporting and using fuel in combination with internal combustion engines, the five companies aim to provide customers with greater choice”.
> There is no corresponding infrastructure delay for EVs which are already being adopted.
That's an utter fantasy. We are nowhere near having enough infrastructure to do this.
There are currently over 150000 public charging points available all across the USA. And there are no technological issues to prevent more from being installed. At some point, more capacity will be needed but again --- no technological issues to prevent this.
Last time I looked there were less than 60 hydrogen refueling stations --- "pilot" projects in California put in place with government funding.
I rest my case. Like it or not, the decision has already been made by the marketplace --- the future is electric.
You will need many millions of them, and enough generating capacity to power then all. That is many years away. Likely decades.
There's also no technological issue preventing the expansion of hydrogen stations. It's also worth noting that this directly replaces the gas station, both in number and location. This is not nearly as big of a challenge as you might think. Unlike charging stations, which must exist in much greater numbers and new locations.
Registration data shows there are around 2 million electric vehicles currently on the road in the USA.
Market research shows more than half of auto consumers will be looking at an EV when they need a new car.
Like it or not, hydrogen has already lost --- for a multitude of reasons. But keep flogging that dead pony.
There are about 300 million ICE cars in the US. BEVs are nowhere near ready to replace ICE cars.
What’s ironic is that BEV fans are just repeating the same anti-EV arguments used against BEVs. They’re not even aware that BEVs were at zero just a decade and a half ago. The fact is, FCEVs are needed by millions of people. As the world shifts to green energy, FCEVs will play a major role and likely one much bigger than what BEVs ever could’ve achieved. So the whole argument is just an act of shortsightedness.
There are 45 EV models currently offered for sale all across the USA --- and more are on the way. Virtually every auto manufacturer either has one (or more) or is working overtime to make one.
There are 3 hydrogen vehicles currently offered for sale --- only in California. And nobody cares.
It should be obvious by now that the marketplace has already decided the future is electric. But keep flogging that dead pony.
And again, how many BEV models were available a decade or so ago? What exactly is suppose to keep hydrogen cars from being developed?
Also, why is your understanding of the marketplace something straight out of a video game, as if there is a end-credits scene and nothing happens afterwards? There's nothing stopping advancement in new technology, regardless of how successful current technology is. Progress always marches on.
Not to mention that fuel cell cars are electric...
What exactly is suppose to keep hydrogen cars from being developed?
Better question --- What keeps hydrogen from being a commercially viable energy source?
Short answer: Economics. The same reason you don't (and probably won't) run your home from hydrogen --- because electricity is a much more universal form of energy that can be produced, safely distributed and utilized more easily/cheaply/efficiently.
Funny, because the economics of hydrogen is heading to nearly zero cost. This is the same trajectory of wind and solar. All of these things have one thing in common: They all are made from practically infinite and free resources. Wind, sunlight and water are very cheap after all. This will imply that hydrogen will also be very cheap.
Also, hydrogen is more ubiquitous than electricity. In fact, it is cheaper to distribute hydrogen than electricity, simply on account of how pipes work compared to wires.
In short, if your argument is economical in nature, then your conclusion is profoundly wrong. It is a matter of when, not if, the lower cost basis of hydrogen based vehicles will cause them to displace BEVs. Also, BEVs have major environmental and practical downsides. I suspect that once the hydrogen movement gets going, BEVs will not pose much of a fight. It will be discarded as just another transitional idea. After all, FCEVs are also EVs.
This will imply that hydrogen will also be very cheap.
This will imply that electricity will be even cheaper.
Most of the practical schemes for breaking molecular bonds in order to release hydrogen uses electricity and lots of it.
Eventually some intelligent hydrogen fanboy will hit upon a bright idea --- let's forget all this hydrogen stuff and just use all the electricity we are generating directly --- cause it's easier, cheaper and more efficient.
Not "cheap," zero and sometimes even negatively priced.
The problem is that there is no way of utilizing that electricity. It is excess electricity generated by unpredictable renewable energy. You might as well use that free and useless electricity to make something actually useful.
> You might as well use that free and useless electricity to make something actually useful.
Like charge a battery? A battery located anywhere on the grid?
Why add more complexity by electrolyzing water, storing the resultant hydrogen, building a vast distribution network to physically move that hydrogen, and keep vehicles dependent on a single form of chemical energy storage?
With an EV, my car can charge off the excess energy in the grid, or from the battery I have in my house, for from fossil fuel plants, or from nuclear, or whatever. I can trivially do this at home (rather than having to visit a refueling station). I can do this at work. Or at the grocery store.
Everyone I know who has an EV will never go back to fuel-powered cars.
I can see a use case for hydrogen in fleet vehicles, or in long-haul trucking scenarios. But for consumer automobiles, it has way too many downsides compared to the EVs that you just plug into a regular wall outlet.
You do not have an infinite quantity of batteries, nor are they particularly good at storing energy for long periods of time.
In reality, electrolyzers and fuel cells are electrochemical systems. There is no more complexity in making hydrogen than it is to charge batteries.
This argument is pretty ridiculous. You are demanding we be dependent on finite battery supplies rather than practically infinite water. You can easily use grid energy and make hydrogen at home or anywhere to make hydrogen too. And FYI, a fuel cell car is an EV.
Your position is totally misinformed. The fundamental argument in favor of hydrogen cars is that they are EVs that are cheaper, lighter, simpler, less dependent on rare resources, and can refuel much faster than BEVs. Critics have effectively inverting reality on some of these points, or somehow deluded themselves in thinking they're still fighting ICE cars. In reality, you are attacking alternative forms of EVs.
Hydrogen is also very expensive and can’t really be produced sustainably at scale yet..
That’s the same argument said about wind and solar not that long ago. People are repeating history by saying the same thing. In the end, you are making something with just wind, sunlight and water. Since they are practically infinite resources, the cost will trend towards zero.
Now apply the same to fusion and many other technologies that turned our to be duds.
For every success story you have 10 (or whatever) failures that nobody remembers.
> the cost will trend towards zero.
Why not just use batteries then? All processes that can be used to make hydrogen now are very inefficient, so unless energy literally costs zero hydrogen won’t still make much sense for cars.
We don't have a working fusion reactor. We do have working electrolyzers and fuel cells. This is night and day difference.
Electrolyzer and fuel cells are electrochemical systems and are basically batteries themselves. There is no fundamental downside compared to choosing some other electrochemical system. People are just swallowing the FUD and marketing BS of li-ion battery companies. There simply isn't a big enough difference in efficiency for this to matter to begin with, and even then the gap will shrink away to nothing. For instance, for large installations it is already possible to do heat-recapture and use that heat to drive a turbine. We can see 85% efficiency and above pretty much right now. We are going to see more ideas like that and therefore there won't much of any real difference in efficiency.
The other point is that we are not here to just replace fossil fuels with something just as limited and problematic. The goal is to move all of society to something truly sustainable. In fact, if the goal is to replace every single vehicle on Earth with BEVs, then the goal is already a dead one. It would be both absurdly expensive and environmentally damaging to attempt that feat. As a result, we pretty much have to invest in hydrogen eventually anyways. So we might as well do so now, rather than keep spending everything on what is basically a transitional technology.
> every single vehicle on Earth with BEVs, then the goal is already a dead one.
We might replace small/personal vehicles with BEV and larger ones with hydrogen.
It’s not a very good fuel source for small vehicles because of how unstable it is. You need significant amounts of energy to stop it from evaporating.
For large commercial vehicles that and distribution would be much easier.
> . We can see 85% efficiency and above pretty much right now
Multiply that by production efficiency and we’re just a bit above the level of ICE.
You mean something closer to every short-ranged EV with BEVs, and long ranged ones with FCEVs? That could work, although it would be admitting that most cars will be FCEVs. Though honestly, we'd be better off with more mass transit than short-ranged vehicles.
Hydrogen is not unstable for transportation purposes. It is safer than gasoline.
No. Wells to wheels efficiency, at least for large installations, would be not far off from what is possible with batteries. The fact that you even think that FCEVs are even close to ICE on efficiency shows that you've swallowed a lot of BEV propaganda. A fuel cell is 3x the efficiency of a conventional gasoline engine. BEVs simply are not that much efficient, and the gap continuously shrink.
> you've swallowed a lot of BEV propaganda
Right. That’s my cue to stop.. arguing with people who say stuff like this is always pointless
> a. A fuel cell is 3x the efficiency of a conventional gasoline engine
If you include production efficiency, storage and transportation losses and fuel cell efficiency itself it’s only a bit higher than diesel if not on par.
Diesel has their own upstream losses. People are constantly using a double standard where they only include upstream losses for hydrogen while ignoring them for everything else. In reality, you are going to get closer to battery-levels of efficiency with fuel cells than with any other currently available idea. It's not even debatable given that fuel cells are far more efficient than ICEs.
Furthermore, given the needs of energy storage, in particular long duration energy storage, there are situations where you will be charging BEVs with hydrogen power. So it is not even a guaranteed that BEVs are more efficient than FCEVs, with the average case likely half-way between commonly claimed numbers. A gap that will shrink over time too, since efficiency of fuel cells can significantly improve.
The reason why I say "BEV propaganda" is because the arguments are totally ridiculous. Between the absurd fearmongering and claims of massive efficiency advantages, all while ignoring any and all limitations of li-ion batteries, it is clearly just a misinformation campaign. After all, since FCEVs are also EVs, why are there so many attacks on them from other EV enthusiasts? It is mostly a defensive strategy of misinformation and FUD. It is because more than anything else, FCEVs represent a disruptive threat to BEVs.
Japanese firm believes it could still exist in 10 years
Dear battery technology claimant,
Thank you for your submission of proposed new revolutionary battery technology. Your new technology claims to be superior to existing lithium-ion technology and is just around the corner from taking over the world. Unfortunately your technology will likely fail, because:
[ ] it is impractical to manufacture at scale.
[ ] it will be too expensive for users.
[ ] it suffers from too few recharge cycles.
[ ] it is incapable of delivering current at sufficient levels.
[ ] it lacks thermal stability at low or high temperatures.
[ ] it lacks the energy density to make it sufficiently portable.
[ ] it has too short of a lifetime.
[ ] its charge rate is too slow.
[ ] its materials are too toxic.
[ ] it is too likely to catch fire or explode.
[ ] it is too minimal of a step forward for anybody to care.
[ ] this was already done 20 years ago and didn't work then.
[ ] by the time it ships li-ion advances will match it.
----------------------------------------------------------------
I wish journalists would at least ask some of these questions on battery tech articles. Please post this on every battery tech story thank you!
Time for our regularly scheduled monthly battery "breakthrough" PR campaign!
Does this one walk on water?
There's a cynical comment like this on every battery story, ignoring the fact that battery breakthroughs do exist, and that lithium ion energy density has ~tripled in the past decade.
> lithium ion energy density has ~tripled in the past decade.
That's actually false. It originated from a literally made-up story by Bloomberg. In reality, NCA cells have existed since the late-2000s. Effective energy density was 250 Wh/kg. We have not significantly improved on this value since then.
The author of that article is simply wrong. I've seen this post more than once now and it is becoming a serious mistake on their part.
FYI, high energy density li-ion batteries existed since 2009: https://news.panasonic.com/global/press/en091218-2
There is hard contradictory evidence to the claims of that DoE article.
Is there a distinction between the batteries existing vs. being in mass production? A lot of the difficulty comes from scaling production processes.
You figure there are cost issues related to lack of mass production. But ultimately, the chemistry is there and you can could have build something in the late 2000s or early 2010s at those higher energy densities. Certainly, any graph that goes right through 2017 and not mention these advances from 2009 would be nonsensical. It is ignoring 8+ years of preexisting technology.
Show me one example where a breathless announcement like this contributed to such an improvement
Mind an ELI5 of how they tripled lith batt density/capacity?
I can make one that floats on water. Get me a headline[0]!
[0] does not hold charge
Just make the whole thing out of potassium.
It's a better battery bulletin, it has no legs
This is the first time I wish HN had emoji reactions. It would have been :drum:
I remember this kind of news for tech like hard disks. Day to day it felt that this improvements do not matter but that 20MB hard disk became 100MB then 400MB. It was exciting to see 1GB, it seemed impossible. Now you have for granted 1,000,000MB SSD super-fast high-capacity hard disks.
I hope that batteries continue improving like this and other technologies. It is going to be like magic.
a solid-state battery with a range of 1,200km (745 miles) that could charge in 10 minutes or less
For that range I assume the battery holds 150 Wh/km * 1200 km = 180 kWh. Charging it in 10 minutes would require about 1.1 MW. That's a lot of Watts.
Probably not viable for the home, but maybe a super capacitor at service stations.
Small print reads:
* Only available at the Niagara Hydroelectric Power Station
Toyota position on EV for the last 10 years 'we will have these super uber amazing batteries soon, and then we will magically make amazing cars in high volume quickly'.
Near empty article. Probably about mass production of sodium anode batteries I guess.
While Toyota has been busy looking for silver bullets that will solve imagined problems, Tesla has been scaling hard with good-enough technology. Their Q2'23 production is a hair under 2 million units per year, so they're already a mid-size OEM (the size of BMW, MB, Audi, etc).
Maybe Toyota does not want to compete in the luxury EV business because they do not see a profit for them. Toyota's success was not built on their luxury models.
EVs (at least those with road-trippable range) are currently aiming for a "luxury-ish" segment, because it helps hide the cost of the battery.
Extra $8K on a $50K car isn't too bad and can be hidden by cutting costs somewhere else. But on a <$20K car there's nothing left to cut, and the extra cost takes it out of the budget segment.
No one looks at TCO. A $28k EV vs a $20k ICE car will have significantly lower TCO over a ten year period. Oil changes alone will be $1200 if done every six months at $60 a pop.
Don't they sell those under the Lexus brand? Toyota is their workmanlike brand.
It’s funny seeing these battery breakthrough articles repeatedly. It’s been years of them now :) I’m always curious who the science writers are who can’t exercise critical thinking and ask a few tougher questions or review a battery breakthrough rubric.
Are you implying there haven't been any battery breakthroughs? What do you think the average capacity, density and cycle time of a battery in 2003 vs 2023 is.
I’d rather an article talk about how panasonic cells achieved 20% more density over 5 years at volume production. Much more impressive.
https://electrek.co/2020/07/30/tesla-batteries-energy-densit...
Same - and more globally too. I'd love to know how GM got their quality act together, how Airbus builds 100 a320s a month with no public defects, etc.
The real, slow engineering stories have the best lessons
There has been a good gradual progress, and all the incremental improvements added up to much better batteries.
However, there regularly are press releases promising breakthroughs, but they either never reach production, or end up being one of the small incremental improvements, not a revolution.