Iranian Officials Asking Venezuela for Asylum in Case of Regime Change
iranintl.comI can't tell if this is for real. If so, this is the first sign that the regime in Iran is falling. As a Iranian born in Chile and raised in Ecuador because of the monkeys in power... this is amazing news.
It's so weird to me how rare it is that the leaders of countries are executed by the population and to even call for that upsets people regardless of what their reign is like.
There's almost no incentive to be a good leader since if it all falls apart you'll just end up living luxuriously in another country.
Why is there such a high value placed on human life that ignores the impact that person had upon the world?
Feel free to down vote but also reply with something because I think we need to reconsider the inherent value placed on human life.
The idea is that if the leader can live luxuriously in another country, they have an incentive to stop being a bad leader and retire in luxury already.
If bad leaders got executed, then the incentive for bad leaders would be to stay in power no matter the cost.
The reason dictatorships turn murderous when they lose popularity is that the dictator knows they will be killed if the opposition wins, so they have no choice but to go all out and do unto the opposition before they do it to him.
> The idea is that if the leader can live luxuriously in another country, they have an incentive to stop being a bad leader and retire in luxury already.
That sounds plausible, but does it actually happen? I mean, tyrants have certainly fled the country to live somewhere else and retire their ambitions, but have they ever done so peacefully?
Former East German leader Erich Honecker [1] lived in Chile until he died of cancer.
I don't think he was threatened, Germans are far too nice to take revenge on their dictators (and he probably also doesn't quite fit the 'dictator' model this is aimed at, as I'm not aware of him having funneled large sums of money out of the country; he was a dictator because of ideology, not because he was a power-hungry cleptocrat, and he resigned before the government folded). He could've lived in Germany, his trial was abandoned, but chose Chile to join his family who had emigrated when he asked for asylum.
Stroessner ruled Paraguay for a long time, but when he was old and his generals staged a coup against him he only gave token resistance and fled to Brazil right away. As far as I know he lived peacefully there until he died.
He could have fought back much harder and plunged the country into a civil war like the one that got him into power in the first place. He chose to retire in wealth, comfort and peace instead.
How could he have fought back harder if his generals staged a coup?
The normal way to fight back against it is to prevent it. You are supposed to generously compensate the armed forces at the expense of the entire rest of the country.
Stroessner did that, but he was not single-minded enough about it. He could have plundered much more, he could have named a successor that his generals liked, he could have raised taxes to unsustainable levels to pay off his generals and buy more time. If his life literally depended on that, he probably would have.
Was more of a thing historically wasn't it? Napoleon was exiled to a far away island before his death. Not by choice though.
Kaiser Wilhelm abdicated and went into exile without too much resistance.
But they don't tend to give up power that easily right?
Also if there is some sort revolution how would they stay in power? Either the military supports them in which their potential fate doesn't matter or they have no way to protect themselves.
NK leaders probably know there is no way out, so also nothing to lose.
Iran, for example, is less bad I guess than North Korea.
So if China refuses to grant them exile they will tell the army to attack people randomly or to detonate a nuclear bomb? How many would follow this order?
Given the amount of media isolation in NK, and amount of demonstrated loyalty needed to rise to high levels of the military with authority over nuclear weapons, I wouldn't want to bet my life against everyone following orders.
Can’t new regimes simply send someone to execute the retired deposed leader(s)?
That could spark a conflict between the new regime and Venezuela.
You want leaders to be able to give up. If staying in power is the only thing seperating a leader from the angry mob, they will fight the hopeless fight until the bitter end.
If they have the option if fleeing to another country, then at some point they could decide its in their best interest to just give up.
Hopeless fight how? Personally? Because I don't think the army won't stand with them forever.
I had an innate negative reaction to your post and had to spend some time thinking about why that is the case.
I think the biggest thing that caused it is the implicit assumption that increased fear for leaders would lead to better government outcomes. I'm not very confident that this is the case.
I think the other part that triggered me is that an implies some singular authority that is determining the value of human life and doling out justice, but choosing not to, when in fact there are practical considerations. Who would hold these leaders accountable, and how? If leaders flee to venezuela, should Iran declare war on venezuela? Should the US step in and attack venezuela?
Overall, I think civilization benefits more from a population that cares about the impact leaders have on them when in office and are satisfied when they are out of power. I don't think an increased amount of bloodlust and revenge in society is ultimately prosocial.
Bloodlust and focus on revenge is a genie that's hard to put back in the bottle once it's out. Endorsing it at a state level can trickle down to how individuals behave. I wouldn't want disenfranchised voters or employees murdering anyone that they felt wronged by in the present or past
Threat of punishment is the basis of all law. You can call it "fear" to garner sympathy for your argument but I think you're not being consistent with your application of justice
That kind of gets to my entire point. Of course it's not consistent application of Justice if it dictator can commit genocide and escape to another country. Everyone will agree that in a perfect world they would undergo trial and be sentenced. We don't live in a perfect world and have practical constraints.
Like I said above, what are you going to do if a dictator flees to another country? Invade it and go to War with it?
Is Justice against one individual worth sacrificing tens or hundreds of thousands of lives? Would that be Justice?
Targeted assassination?
I don't think pros outweigh the cons for conducting a assassination on foreign soil for the sole purpose of Revenge when someone no longer poses a threat
Looking at US vs China, and situations like this.. more and more I think the function of democracy is not so much to install good leaders, but to uninstall bad leaders more rapidly.
No democracy could have maintained Xi's zero-covid policy for nearly 3 years.
> Feel free to down vote but also reply with something because I think we need to reconsider the inherent value placed on human life.
This is a sentence that I would hope never to have associated with me. We need to re-consider the value of people's lives … on what basis? Because of the harm they have done to others, I guess. And why is that harm so bad? Because people's lives have value, surely. But should we interrogate whether all the people hurt by an official's actions were good or bad people before deciding how much to weight that official's harm to them?
If the principle of life having value doesn't extend to everyone, then it doesn't really cover anyone. To put it differently, if there is a principle according to which a life can be said to have no value, then that principle, howsoever aimed at the powerful it might initially be, will be used against the powerless.
A civilization should be judged on how it treats the abhorrent and powerless.
> A civilization should be judged on how it treats the abhorrent and powerless.
I'm not sure if this is support or disagreement. If it is disagreement, then I should clarify that, as far as I can tell, I meant to say the same thing, though I certainly said it less pithily.
I was attempting to distill the sentiment to a single sentence. And I completely agree with you.
>to even call for that upsets people regardless of what their reign is like.
Its was so weird when Gaddafi was killed. He was a murderous villain and the west had directly made sure that his regime would fall or even outright tried to kill him with bombings. But when some of his so-called subjects got their hands on him and finished the job it was much maligned in the press. For some reason the more power you have the less people feel like you should experience consequences.
Was Gaddafi a murderous villain?
By my understanding he sponsored IRA terrorists and unnecessarily attacked Egypt and Algeria in some minor conflicts and a few public executions (Lockerbie was pretty clearly a Syrian action).... That's it? I do think he claimed to be a murderous villain since that was working for assad
I could be wrong but on raw terms it's not too far off from say any given us president in the last 100 years
So how many people do you need to get killed before you can be a murderous villain? You are actually underlining the point with your apologia for a dictator. It also would be nice if US presidents also took the consequences of their crimes. But your whataboutism is not really an argument for anything here.
Probably most world leaders are "murderous villains" in some way or another. It sucks, but much better than universal anarchy and civil war
Why is it a choice between allowing leaders to almost never be punished or complete anarchy
No apologia intended. I would call assad, putin a murderous villain. I would say Gaddafi murdered a few people.
I think this aligns with the common and infuriating Western media trope where the hero can kill any number of low level unidentified grunts but as soon as they come to the big boss guy they suddenly get morals and have to let him live.
All the pain and suffering caused by Gaddafi happened off screen to unidentified people so we were silent. His killing happened very much on screen to a recognizable "bad guy" so suddenly we found moral outrage.
I think people is "the west" wanted to see him tried in a court rather than impaled and summarily shot. The whole Western bombing campaign happened specifically because Gaddafi was waging war on the civilian population.
This is what I'm saying. If you call for Putin's death people go nuts but he's responsible for a war that's killed 10s of thousands.
The War in Iraq killed a lot more civilians than that.
And if you call for justice for those responsible, people get even nuttier.
Ok, I wasn't excluding anyone.
Edit: I believe the first Gulf War was justified. The second however is a war crime. IMO
Yep, and if it wasn't for the Iraq war, there are plenty of other wrongs throughout human history we could point to in order to justify the continuation of any particular evil & injustice.
If you want a bad leader out of power, and his options are to remain in power or be executed, then he's going to fight to the death. But before his death, that will cause the death of a lot of other people.
You don't think we should place any value on the dictator's life? Fine. Place some value on the lives of the people who would die to kick him out.
"Why is there such a high value placed on human life that ignores the impact that person had upon the world?"
This is the wrong question. There isn't a high value on human life, the leaders are permitted to execute and kill people.
There is an incentive for people in power to not want to create a precedent for the killing of people in power, for obvious reasons of self interest.
There's also a precedent for people to live vicariously through leaders, be they a political leader or someone like Elon Musk, which can presumably lead to violence if you make them a martyr.
Someone told me in a bar on K Street the thing Vladimir Putin fears most is being hung from a gas station like Mussolinu, and I suspect that goes for all totalitarians.
What scares me is I've met people like that at home in the USA.
There is a quote by a KGB defector which I lost the cite for.
"There is nowhere to defect to."
They can live in luxury, but you cannot buy respect.
Folks are allowed to show you, in small ways that you are forever unwelcome in civil society. They should do exactly that to folks who think they can try to get on a helicopter with a laptop bag full of egold like cyberpunk Ceaușescus that at best we will count the days until we can cheer their deaths if we cannot do the needful ourselves due to laws or norms.
Here's the KGB defector's interview you're talking about, his name was Yuri Bezmenov.
Thanks I'll bookmark it.
I think the only Russian leader who ever left and lived abroad was Gorbachev.
Even Navalny came back to face the music, and he wasnt even president (yet?)
I do not believe they are self serving at the expense of their country and will live in a bunker while their countrymen are bombed. They all thought and think they were doing the right thing for their country. Even Yeltsin, when he did in 1993 what essentially the Peruvian guy is doing now — trying to dissolve parliament in a constitutional crisis, in order to perpetuate the “shock therapy” of privatizing everything to oligarchs while people started to starve.
I an sure even Stalin thought he was modernizing the country, just as Mao later did, while people were starving.
The problem isn’t that they are self serving kleptocrats. Stalin owned one suit I think, and personally was poor.
Just because they love their country and think they’re helping it, doesn’t make it true that they’re helping people though. I am sure George W Bush loved USA and wanted the best for it when he invaded Iraq. As libertarians we question the basic “patriotic common wisdom” of how things are set up in the first place.
Hordes of them around the revolution. After there was never a serious change of power.
Well yes, after the Russian revolution the losers fled for their lives. As did Trotsky when Stalin was seeking to kill him. I think he dressed as a woman to escape lol
I am talking about subsequent leaders who actually ruled Russia. Yeltsin helped usher in the Chicago Boys reforms in Russia and he literally fired on Congress. The Peruvian guy does less than that but he is denounced - yet Yeltsin was supported by USA. There is a cover of Time Magazine w him holding an American flag saying “Yanks to the Rescue” where we claimed to have interfered in the Russian elections to have him re-elected despite a 6% (!!) approval rating. We did it so the communist party candidate wouldn’t get into power (Zyuganov).
They even made a movie about it https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=X1Z7pAcGQSQ
So when it comes to Russia, interfering in their elections is something we are proud of doing and even probably overstate it for propaganda purposes. That is another reason why even on a logic/hypocrisy level, very little said by large states (especially empires) means anything to intelligent people. It’s all sound bites designed to get public support for the latest policy of the latest administration, who themselves make it up as they go. Instead of working hard to hear legitimate concerns of others and prevent wars, they escalate wars. This is true across the board in Russia, China, USA etc. They supposedly “work for us” but they do such a terrible job and then we have to pay with our taxes and our boys (and kill other people by the tens of thousands) for THEIR mistakes while they never even come close to paying the price an average young male member of the public has to pay.
In the Russian revolution, 20 million people died, many killing their own relatives. But not Stalin, Lenin, or any of the Bolshevik leaders. Must be nice to be the political class. And people buy this bullshit. Read “war is a racket” by Smeey Butler
Yes, it is clear you are talking about USSR and post-USSR RF. Again I don't know what's the point of picking a period with no real change of power, not even close to what seems possible in Iran.
Russian leaders were as quick to leave as any when shit hit the fan is my point.
> Even Navalny came back to face the music, and he wasnt even president (yet?)
The dude has a a net positivity of -30% rating ... and is a designated terrorist.
> According to polls conducted by the Levada Center in September 2020, 20% of Russians approve Navalny's activities, 50% disapprove, and 18% had never heard of him. Out of those who were able to recognize Navalny, 10% said that they have "respect" for him, 8% have sympathy and 15% "could not say anything bad" about him. 31% are "neutral" towards him, 14% "could not say anything good" about him and 10% dislike him.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexei_Navalny
You could argue Russia is corrupt, but it equally seems likely the west is propping this guy up because he's an "asset". Navalny isn't anywhere close to electable. He's convicted of multiple crimes, in solitary for trying to start / organize a prisoners union (something the west also pushes back against) and isn't generally liked in Russia. Especially, when comparing to someone like Putin who has a +50% approval rating
https://www.statista.com/statistics/896181/putin-approval-ra...
You could have said the same about Mandela and the ANC. Or Lenin and the Communists. Or Robespierre and the Jacobians.
Happy to say that Mandela and Navalny seemed less likely to create violent revolutions and big terrors, than those other two guys.
> They can live in luxury, but you cannot buy respect. Folks are allowed to show you, in small ways that you are forever unwelcome in civil society.
Ah, what wouldn't I give to feel forever unwelcome in small ways but have another country's passport/bank account/etc. Heartwarming to know it's easier for those who are running my (on paper) country into mud. Guess I'll keep running around the sanctions I'm under because of them while they live in luxury and know they will be about to keep doing it no matter what goes down.
I don't think they and their helicopters should be allowed in and their funny money should not convert as it degrades democracy.
"They can live in luxury, but you cannot buy respect."
If they were ok with being hated by the world and some large percentage of their population why would they care about being respected?
I think this is huge divide between sociopaths and normal people. You think everyone cares about honor, respect, and the like but many people just want money and or power.
>I think this is huge divide between sociopaths and normal people. You think everyone cares about honor, respect, and the like but many people just want money and or power.
I know. I worked in DC :-)
> Someone told me in a bar on K Street the thing Vladimir Putin fears most is being hung from a gas station like Mussolinu, and I suspect that goes for all totalitarians.
> What scares me is I've met people like that at home in the USA.
I'm trying to give this a charitable reading, but I'm puzzled by it.
First, I'm pretty sure that Mussolini was shot, not hanged, but obviously that doesn't change the main sentiment.
Second, I don't think I'm particularly likely to be hanged, and not much more likely than the average USian to be shot, but both those outcomes do frighten me if I think about them. So, when you say "What scares me is I've met people like that at home in the USA", do you mean people who are scared of being shot or hanged, or people who think that their likely end is being shot or hanged? Or something else?
Since you're getting a lot of reasoned replies I assume your meaning is clear to others, but I'm really having trouble figuring it out.
I also heard somewhere (also don't have link), that he apparently watched in horror the killing of Gaddafi multiple times, possibly imagining himself in the same situation.
I wonder if there's a deepfake of that video with Putin's face instead of Gaddafi's - that would certainly freak him out :)
> Someone told me in a bar on K Street the thing Vladimir Putin fears most is being hung from a gas station like Mussolinu, and I suspect that goes for all totalitarians.
Putin has openly said he despises what the west did to Gaddafi and believes thats what they want for him. He not only fears it, but but said he fears for his civilization (Russia).
The west makes it pretty easy to be feareful - https://www.cbsnews.com/news/clinton-on-qaddafi-we-came-we-s...
Putin asked what right the west had to assassinate Gaddafi without a trial and destroy all the countries infrastructure
https://www.the-sun.com/news/2268833/vladimir-putin-killed-g...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-putin-libya-idUSTR...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/apr/26/libya-us-briti...
>Putin asked what right the west had to assassinate Gaddafi without a trial and destroy all the countries infrastructure
The purposeful destruction of infrastructure is an inexcusable war crime.
But "the west" did not stick a sword up Gaddafi's butt -- that was his own people, enraged by the actions of a totalitarian.
"The West" did not wander into Libya and and lynch a so called world leader who only wants norms followed when said lynch mob has formed.
To kill in this manner is a crime, but it happens when so many laws and norms have been broken it's more akin to manslaughter, more akin to a concentration camp victim losing their temper, seizing a firearm, and executing their former captors.
(As they say in America: "Fuck around, find out.")
> But "the west" did not stick a sword up Gaddafi's butt -- that was his own people, enraged by the actions of a totalitarian.
Sure, a nato air strike hit Gaddafi's vehicles and opposition was given the location to attack...
People on the ground definitely "finished the job", but it was the massive air campaign and provided intelligence, leadership and weaponry to opposition that ended up getting Gaddafi killed.
For the record, I'm not supporting anyone here. I'm pointing out the idea the Putin isn't scared of his people as much as NATO. Per his own words.
Putin is massively popular in Russia https://www.statista.com/statistics/896181/putin-approval-ra...
Doesn't mean the 15-20% who massively dislike him wouldn't hang him. It would just only happen if Nato or the west provided support to the opposition.
“We came, we saw, he died.” - Hillary Clinton
I don't like that politician, her inaction caused a friend to die.
(You should have guarded the embassy better. RIP vilerat.)
This is projecting. Everything you said russia has been doing for years.
Less than a week ago russians published those photos https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/zcak...
Sure, but this fear of "ending up like Gaddafi" still doesn't doesn't make for a justification, or even an explanation, of why Putin thought it was a good idea to invade a neighboring country. Egging "The West" on made that worry much closer to becoming real. If Putin wanted to be left alone, he's done the exact wrong thing.
I think the fuller explanation is that Putin got drunk on his own Kool-aid of successful propaganda ops against the West, and thought that would translate into battlefield success. Nobody thinks of themselves as a bad person, so the perspective of rulers is that people love them and want to be ruled by them. Hence why Russia started off by sending shock paratroopers to be "greeted as liberators" rather than an actual invasion force.
What I do know is the Russia-Ukraine war is a referendum on the post-WWII international order - whether those lines on a map mean something. And even despite the moral hazards from the outsized winners in that international order (eg the Iraq War), it's seeming that we're much better off with it than without it. And this applies a thousand times over if you're American or European.
I think Putin was actually extremely clear why he invaded Ukraine. NATO was expanding to Russia's border
https://nypost.com/2021/12/23/putin-demands-nato-not-expand-...
Ukraine was hostile to the Russian people, banning their language in schools and refusing to uphold neutrality. France tried to broker a deal before the war broke out (upholding the Minsk agreements).
https://www.wsj.com/articles/putin-to-meet-macron-as-france-...
> Sure, but this fear of "ending up like Gaddafi" still doesn't doesn't make for a justification, or even an explanation, of why Putin thought it was a good idea to invade a neighboring country. Egging "The West" on made that worry much closer to becoming real. If Putin wanted to be left alone, he's done the exact wrong thing.
The west supported a coup in Ukraine, overthrowing the elected leadership of Ukraine.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/6/22/russias-putin-accus...
Russia then attempted to negotiate with the new Ukrainian government
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsk_agreements
Ukraine openly ignored the agreement and has been seeking EU / US involvement. Immediately before Russia invaded there was a massive increase in shelling (noted by international observers as well). Which could easily lead one to believe Ukraine was about to start another push into Donbass
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-sharp-incre...
Just prior to Russia invading, Ukraine was openly discussing the attempt to obtain nuclear weapons
https://www.dailywire.com/news/president-zelensky-suggests-u...
Everything points to expansion of the west, which triggered Putin's fears.
I'm not saying he should have invaded, he effectively lost in the political influence game, so he switched to the kinetic realm. But in his mind he thinks NATO is out to destroy him and his civilization (his own words). It makes sense if you watch what the west has done to people like Gaddaffi, Serbia, or Iraq. I'm not supporting anything here, but am pointing out the mindset.
Well, I guess that was my fault for giving you an opening to dump all the thoroughly-debunked copypasta. In the post-WWII international order where lines on the map are generally respected to avoid war: Russia attacked, and continues to attack, a sovereign country. Period.
If you pull it into some other paradigm than the post-WWII international order, where Russia presumably has some inherent right of conquest, then sure, you can come up with justifications of why Russia "had" to act. But as I alluded to in my last comment, if you are an American or European taking that post-WWII order for granted, you are gravely mistaken.
> thoroughly-debunked copypasta. In the post-WWII international order where lines on the map are generally respected to avoid war: Russia attacked, and continues to attack, a sovereign country. Period.
None of that has been debunked, it's quite literally factual events and treaties not honored that all parties admit weren't honored. None of those facts are in dispute by anyone.
Regardless, if you want to dive into the post-WWII international order, the right of self-determination also wasn't honored. The west aided in a coup in 2014, removing the elected leadership of Ukraine. After that, the western half of Ukraine voted to leave Ukraine. Only after 6-8 years of fighting between the Ukrainian parties did Russia become involved directly and a new vote (where they again voted to join Russia) did they in fact join Russia.
As with everything in life, it depends on perspective. I'm personally an avid pacifist. Taking a life is never justified, even in self-defense. I personally see both "sides" as acting poorly here.
That said, I can look at both arguments and obviously see Russia is acting in self-interest. Ukraine is acting in their interest. But only one side here has been having their homes shelled for 8 years (the Donbass).
I don't want to blow your mind or anything but pretending to be a more moral person than you actually are is an effective way to gain power and wealth and an immoral person will not be honest about their motivations or intentions.
> I think Putin was actually extremely clear why he invaded Ukraine
I think Putin was actually extremely clear before February that Russia is not going to invade Ukraine. Oh wait, he lied.
Turkey is clearing 80k mines in east turkey on the Iranian border [0]. That's another vital sign. Because the last time, something similar happened on the Syrian border, and the civil war in Syria started.
[0]: Joint project with EU, UNDP to clear 80,000 mines in eastern Turkey https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/eu-affairs/joint-project...
Could you elaborate more on how is this related?
Turkey is clearing mines on its border for no reason and right after these operations, something big is happening. This is the relation. I hope it is clear.
How does the existence of a minefield near but not in Iran contribute to stability in Iran? How does the removal of those mines destabilized Iran?
These are obviously unrelated.
Because, it is all planned way before. Why would you remove those mines ? Turkey has no reason to do that. Maybe they know something...Maybe the regime won't survive and a lot of people will need to run away from their homeland. They might need some secure migration pathways.
> Why would you remove those mines ?
What is a good reason to keep them? Doesn't Turkey still want to join the EU. I'd think that landmines are yet another hindrance.
Do they really still want to join EU? I thought this ship had sailed a long time ago, and Turkey bullying Finland & Sweden as they want to join OTAN is probably not going to help.
so, there is no mine on eu-russia border ?
I guess the suggestion is that the removal of those mines will make it easier for future Iranian refugees to cross that border.
When Turkey did it around the Syrian border it wasn’t for refugees the shit has already hit the fan and I’m guessing that the Turkish military saw a possibility for intervention either in the war itself or against the Kurdish groups in that region.
They cleared the minefield to be able to operate safely not because they were concerned for the safety of refugees.
Turkey’s border with Iran is mainly with the West Azerbaijan province (not to be confused with Azerbaijan the country) the demographics of that region are usually an Azeri majority or minority majority with a large Kurdish population as West Azerbaijan borders Iranian Kurdistan.
If Turkey is indeed clearing up minefields it’s probably again in perpetration to be able to stage military forces in the area rather than for humanitarian reasons.
I couldn’t find any reliable sources that anything of note is actually happening tho but this is also not something I would expect to even hit the major wire services.
Maybe that's a more likely possibility. Northern Iran has Kurds. If the government of Iran falls and the country turns to chaos instead of democracy and the Kurds declare independence, then of course Turkey will want to be able to invade.
> Western diplomatic sources told Iran International
> In early-November, an unnamed source at Tehran's Imam Khomeini Airport told Kayhan-London
> Citing an unnamed Iranian source,
> There are also unconfirmed reports that officials are transferring their assets to friendly countries
Basically, "source? trust me bro!"
Yeah lets name them bro, then we can have articles like: "Iranian whistleblower found dead with signs of torture." Much better!
I find it hard to believe that in an era of smartphones and all these gadgets, there's no picture, video or any other type of evidence except "unnamed sources".
As adamsmith143 pointed out, if that evidence exists, it's probably better to keep it out of sight of Iranian authorities. If that means you don't believe it, then that's what it is. Exposing sources is a bad idea.
Of course the evidence exists lol but you don't burn your sources if you ever want another hot tip and certainly not when it likely means a horrible death for them if you do.
I like how you're confident the evidence exists by seeing 0 evidence.
Sure. Apparently I should also believe Iran has WMD and NATO should attack it. It's coming from a unnamed sources.
Journalists != CIA/DOD for the majority of cases so this isn't really the own you think it is.
This is not a real story, it's published by a regime change media outlet. There is an enormous anti-Iran Persian language media industry, staffed primarily by Persians in Los Angeles and to a lesser degree by Persians in London and Paris. Tens of thousands of people are employed full time in this industry, dwarfing the number of people employed in Persian language media in Iran itself. It's truly massive in scale, primarily funded by US/UK and EU governments as well as by Saudi Arabia, which is engaged in a cold war against Iran. It cranks out weaponized propaganda at a constant rate, with the goal of creating a revolution in Iran in which a pro-Western government is installed.
This particular influence operation is headquartered in London and is owned by Volant Media, and receives donations from Saudi Arabia[1]. Volant has offices in Washington DC, and owns this and a sister publication called "Afghanistan International", which was launched immediately after the Taliban capture of Kabul, and is now focused on waging information warfare against Afghanistan.
"Iran International TV emerged abruptly on the London media scene last year; many of the 100-strong staff network were offered generous salaries, often double what rivals paid, but was elusive about its source of funding."
"The source claimed Saud al-Qahtani, the crown prince’s information tsar, who was among two senior officials removed in connection with the Khashoggi affair, was involved in the funding behind Iran International TV."
[1] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/31/concern-over-u...
Source? The Venezuelans and Iranians have strong relations, I doubt this is real. A lot of propaganda against Iran lately while the Israelis continue to slaughter Palestinians on a daily basis (while calling for “freedom” in Iran).
Sudden vacuum of a central authority in Iran can result in seriously messed up situation. I very much hope that there is a peaceful transition of government rather than a sudden vacuum.
If the upper echelons are fleeing, then the whole stampede sets in, all the lower levels who cant flee, swinging around searching for a new "leader" in the chaos.
Who would be the follow-on power if such an event did happen?
The same freedom lovers and democratic fighters that filled the gap in Libya, Syria, Iraq and bunch of other countries.
I see exactly the same news going around Ukrainian telegram channels about Putin. First they thought China and now they are buying real estate in Venezuaela and Argentina. Some say it's fake and some not. I tend to believe it's fake news to show the regime is weak and is loosing.
Huh? Is... Venezuela... particularly Islamic? Maybe Kosovo would be a better cultural fit.
If I was an Iranian trying to flee a regime change, I’d probably pick the western-hostile Venezuela over the NATO friendly Kosovo.
I'll have to read up, the few folks I met from there weren't rude to me.
(I'm a big fan of personal diplomacy, in the sense I used to loudly joke I might one day become a test case for the Logan Act :-))
I don't believe a thing you've said
>I don't believe a thing you've said
Have we met in real life? I have witnesses.
Don't question my integrity.
I'm not asking you for a letter of recommendation, your opinions are irrelevant.
Kosovo-Albanians (and Ukrainians) are probably the most pro-American people in the world right now.
Just because Kosovo is Muslim-majority does not mean they're friendly to the Iranian regime.
Wagner just opened an office in Serbia.
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/russian-mercenary-group-wagn...
I'm sorry, I wasn't saying they wanted them. I was just saying it's weird to me if someone claims to want an Islamic Republic to move to a secular place rather than, say, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, or the UAE.
Sorry -- I didn't mean to insult folks from Kosovo or Albania.
(I'm not a nationalist, I just utilize the existing neoliberal laws and norms to move us to something more respectful of personal autonomy while respecting basic human rights, but I've noticed how lack of shared language can cause issues when everything else is put aside)
That sort of hypocrisy is pretty common for totalitarian regimes regardless of religious affiliation, the children of their high ranking leaders often spend most of their life enjoying the luxuries of liberal societies.
That said, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE are especially problematic for Iranian leaders because Iran's official sect of Islam is opposed to that of those countries.
>That said, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE are especially problematic for Iranian leaders because Iran's official sect of Islam is opposed to that of those countries.
Ah yes, I keep forgetting about the whole Sunni/Shia (sp?) thing. (One of the many fun things I've mostly discussed verbally)
A secular place won't execute them on the spot, but their sworn enemies for 1500 years would most probably do.
> rather than, say, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, or the UAE
All of these are bitter enemies of the Iranian government.
Venezuela gives more cover. Larger, gives less shits. There are African options too.
>African options
Libya? Egypt? Be specific. Let's plan where they will go and prepare for their arrival.
Egypt has strong a military relationship with Saudi and the US so a no-go
Libya's governments have strong military relationships with Turkey and/or the US+France so a no-go
If they try to take asylum somewhere outside Iran it would probably be Malaysia (lots of the Iranian elite send their children to the British+Australian university campuses there plus it's basically First World) or Qatar (similar reason as Malaysia but also American universities)
I don't think Malaysia would -they're not quite aligned with Western nations, but also they don't like getting in trouble. But maybe Brunei or even Indonesia. Indonesia probably doesn't care as long as you stay out in some remote island to yourself.
The current Iranian government has strong relations with Malaysia - Iranian oil is often exported on tankers with Malaysian flags[0] and Malaysian politicians often lean pro-Iran[1][2] due to anti-imperialism, a Persiophilic form of Sunni Islam due to diffusion via South Asia, and business ties.
Indonesia's elite tend to be much more West dependent than Malaysia (and anecdotally, USC is the main school Indonesian elites send their children to, compared to British and Singaporean unis for Bumiputra Malaysians)
[0] - https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Ira...
[1] - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iraq-security-malaysia/mu...
[2] - https://rusi.org/publication/tension-asia-pacific-iranian-ma...
Thanks, I was unaware of those ties. That makes sense. Culturally it's probably closer to Iran than Venezuela is, and they're probably inquiring within over there (just not reported). If I were a baddie, I sure would not put all my eggs in one basket.
The one "advantage" Maduro has is he's a strongman's strongman and a socialist caudillow.
Venezuela makes sense for the top leaders because they would worry more so about extradition. Malaysia makes sense for the rest of the party apparatus.
I wouldn't be surprised if a number of the pro-regime Imams end up moving to India though - that was Khomeini's backup to Paris, is the 2nd largest Shia country in the world, and historically was the goto country of refuge for religious Iranian.
LoL, I don't think Iranians officials want to apply asylum in there anywhere near Albania, the quota is already taken by Mojahedin-e-Khalq (MEK) (hint: terrorists org/cult)
I know what Mojahedin-e-Khalq is.
(I'm childfree in the "listens to a lot of crystal method" sense, but you run into all sorts.)