Redfin: Pending Home Sales Fall 35% YoY, biggest drop on record
redfin.comTheir record for this goes back to 2015.
As far as I know, home sales never collapsed by this much in the great recession. I compiled home sales data here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gVEXsjZjJaO3qtx4MI_W...
Nice home data compilation.
The current party line among realtors is that volume will be very low while buyers and seller both refuse to have their target prices met, but that prices won't come down as a result and there will simply be a stagnation.
Do you have any thoughts on this?
This is certainly true. The stagnation is what is causing low sales volume.
Every home owner in America has a 2 - 3% mortgage rate while today's rate is 7%. And they are sitting on equity gained during 0% interest era. There is no reason for sellers to sell. If they sell and buy again, they'll change their rate from 2-3% to 7%. No one is stupid enough to do that.
And buyers can't afford the massive increase in home prices during covid plus 7% mortgage rates.
So we have a stalemate. Hence, home sales keep on falling. The only group selling are institutional investors such as Blackrock or Opendoor because they need to free up cash.