Settings

Theme

Wildfires are destroying California's forest carbon credit reserves, study says

reuters.com

72 points by baobob 3 years ago · 63 comments (61 loaded)

Reader

photochemsyn 3 years ago

Forestry carbon credits have always been a bad joke, comparable to 'clean zero-emission coal plants' in terms of their effectiveness in slowing the rate of CO2 increase in the atmosphere. Such concepts are really borderline, if not actual, scientific fraud.

The guilty parties here are politicians, bureaucrats and corporations who wanted to be seen as 'doing something' or selling 'responsible stewardship' to the public while actually doing nothing. I honestly have more respect for the outfits that didn't even bother with such bogus PR claims (ExxonMobil) vs the shady fraudsters who tried to greenwash their image this way (BP 'Beyond Petroleum', Chevron's 'sustainability program'). Politicians like Al Gore hyped these schemes as well, while not doing much that would actually decrease fossil fuel use (like a massive increase in solar/wind/storage technology R&D and manufacturing support). Countries like Canada used this nonsense to justify continuing with the dirtiest fossil fuel production system on the planet, i.e. Alberta tar sand mining, all while portraying themselves as green enviromentalists.

Such opportunistic politicization of the issue has resulted in major problems ever since when it comes to explaining the science to skeptics, who understandably started to think it was all about politics.

Even 30 years ago when these schemes were first trotted out as 'cap and trade' scientists knew they were bogus. Forests weren't capable of expanding to absorb fossil carbon being pumped into the atmosphere and predictions of continental drying (reduced growth rates), warmer winters (allowing insect infestations), and longer fire seasons (burning down the forests) all pointed to steady reductions in standing biomass, not increases.

  • alexose 3 years ago

    Note that most of the carbon offsets offered by airlines are forestry-related. Any time you see offsets for less than $50/ton, proceed with an abundance of caution.

    I do think the general state of offsets is improving. There are more high-quality offsets hitting the market every day. They're much too expensive, but I'd rather see "real" offsets at a high price than the complete make-believe we've had up until recently.

    • photochemsyn 3 years ago

      The only mechanisms at the CDR Database that look like actual long-term offsets are in the mineralization category, meaning the production of carbonate rocks from atmospheric CO2. The problem is you need the counterion to make these rocks, i.e. calcium or magnesium, and these are often already locked up in rocks. Mine tailings have been proposed as a source, I don't know.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbonate_rock

      The sci-fi approach that would be great is pulling atmospheric CO2 out of the air and making diamond from it. The technology is sort of there already but the costs are ludicrous. The pathway is atmospheric CO2 + water -> methane -> synthetic diamond production. That last is a slow energy-intensive process, but such diamonds would be easily distinguishable from the 'real' geologic diamonds (as they'd have the same amount of carbon-14 as the atmospheric CO2 does). Worth someone writing a business plan I think.

    • etrautmann 3 years ago

      Can you provide links? I’m very curious to learn more about real offsets even if expensive.

    • danielfoster 3 years ago

      Not sure what airlines are offering now, but when I checked in 2019, United’s offset scheme included funding for sustainable tourism and education in developing countries. Great causes, but not an offset.

  • briantakita 3 years ago

    The grift is even bigger than that. Scapegoating a naturally occurring gas for all of the world's problems is a huge opportunity for grifters, greenwashers, & con artists. I wonder if theres a study of scientists who add "the effects of global warming on..." to their paper titles for some career sustaining $$$. Don't get me wrong, there's plenty of great work out there...however the incentives seem to invite unethical behavior.

alexose 3 years ago

Here in Northern California there are huge swaths of firs that are dead or diseased as a result of drought. When they burn (which they will, at high intensity), they'll release their carbon back into the air. Seems to me that there's an opportunity for someone to sequester a lot of carbon by burying these trees (https://cbmjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1750-0...) or by turning them into biochar/bio-oil.

  • hedora 3 years ago

    In the SF area, the redwoods are dying off from heat/drought. The pines and oaks are being hit with disease. On balance, the oaks seem to be replacing the redwood forests, but everything is thinning out.

    The mountain forests in Southern California (near Yosemite, etc) have been burnt out hellscapes for years.

    Of course, this is all rounding error vs. the loss of 90% of the kelp forest, which many people didn't notice, since it's underwater. The kelp biomass the has been lost in the last few years is equal to 100% of the redwood forests.

    As I like to shout from the rooftops, gasoline could be made carbon negative with a ~ $1/gallon direct air carbon capture tax. (And similar for the other fossil fuels.). I recently saw $7.99 / gallon, so that's a bit over a 10% tax in some areas.

    Yes, poor people need gasoline too. We should tax new ICE vehicles at some astronomical rate and plow the money into steeper EV subsidies.

    Alternatively, we could tax ICE new vehicles so (assuming they run for 250K miles) the purchaser pays 100% of the carbon recapture cost up front.

    We could also allow for community net metering so poor high density areas could establish nonprofit solar/wind farms that lower their electricity bills.

    As far as I can tell, all these plans are deficit neutral and would also boost the economy.

    • alexose 3 years ago

      I'm with you! I'm a big proponent of DAC. I believe it'll be the key that unlocks a circular carbon economy. But, we're still a long ways from scaling it to a level where we can offset the carbon from burning fuel.

      We should be pursuing every possible avenue, especially those that might have side benefits. Sequestering dead trees could help with fuels reduction and potentially improve soil health.

      (If anyone reading this wants to help scale DAC, consider joining me in OpenAir collective discord! https://openair.cc/)

    • mlyle 3 years ago

      > Yes, poor people need gasoline too.

      Just tax carbon. Use proceeds to subsidize situations where the hardship is too high (e.g. energy used by poor people).

      Start small and phase in over time.

    • hondo77 3 years ago

      > ...in Southern California (near Yosemite, etc)...

      In what universe is Yosemite in Southern California?

    • qorrect 3 years ago

      > We could also allow for community net metering so poor high density areas could establish nonprofit solar/wind farms that lower their electricity bills.

      Is this something that one could do now ? I don't know where you'd begin on something like that but I'm loving this idea.

    • colpabar 3 years ago

      >As far as I can tell, all these plans are deficit neutral and would also boost the economy.

      The state of california should enact these plans so we can all see how it goes. If it works other states will follow suit. If it doesn't, more people will leave california.

      >As I like to shout from the rooftops, gasoline could be made carbon negative with a ~ $1/gallon direct air carbon capture tax. (And similar for the other fossil fuels.). I recently saw $7.99 / gallon, so that's a bit over a 10% tax in some areas.

      I know that gas prices are high because of putin's price hike (tm), but wasn't calfornia gas already much more expensive than other states because of state taxes? How is this one going to be different?

    • ceeplusplus 3 years ago

      > steeper EV subsidies

      It will be at least a decade before used EVs with >200mi range trickle down to the $10-15k used market. Saying we should tax gas when poor people can't even afford it as is is a gross misunderstanding of the financial situation of poor people today. You can't even buy a >200mi EV for less than 40k today.

      > establish nonprofit solar/wind farms

      Who's going to pay for them? And who's paying for the storage?

      > also boost the economy

      Boosting the price of fuel would have hugely inflationary effects while everyone is still stuck on ICEs. We saw this in the 70s, we're seeing it now.

    • dfee 3 years ago

      This response makes about half sense. There are flaws - geographic and mathematic. Could this be a GPT3 response?

  • quarterdime 3 years ago

    To add to others' comments about timber harvest: Logging operations in burned areas can greatly accelerate erosion. Dead trees have ecological value as habitat and food (woodpeckers are a textbook example). Dead trees have ecological value in the long term as they ultimately become soil (both the volume and contour). Check out Tom Wessels (example https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zcLQz-oR6sw)

    I have not studied or worked with bio-oils, but on biochar: As a soil amendment, many soil types are incompatible with addition of biochar. Biochar tends to retain water, which is a problem if you add it to already poorly draining soils. Biochar also shifts soil pH. In some cases this is good, in other cases it is bad. I think it is the minority of soils that are actually improved by adding biochar. I am not aware of any studies that show that biochar is a suitable carbon storage scheme. The last time I reviewed the research, the behavior of carbon in soils is as yet poorly understood and appears to be quite complex. It may be a decade or more before we understand what biochar does when added to different soil types, and we might learn that the majority of it ends up as CO2 within a couple years.

    Finally you mention burying trees: it may be that this accelerates the release of Carbon. Depending on climate, standing timber often lasts longer. Dead wood on the ground (or buried) is often wetter, which favors decomposition.

    I am not trying to sound negative here. You bring up a lot of points that are being actively researched and worked on. But there are not any clear easy solutions. We need to work on this problem. I wish we (as a society) were putting a lot more into this effort.

    • alexose 3 years ago

      No negativity taken. These are complex systems. Any solutions involving forestry should be heavily scrutinized.

  • rr808 3 years ago

    Nice idea but surely all the chainsaws, loaders, trucks, diggers would burn so much diesel it isn't worth it?

    • s1artibartfast 3 years ago

      Unlikely. Compare the size/mass of the gas tank on a truck to the load of trees it is carrying. This approach gives a very rough estimate of the carbon used vs sequestered.

    • alexose 3 years ago

      That's a good point. Though, it might be possible to tack the sequestration step onto existing thinning and/or fuel reduction projects.

    • Ancalagon 3 years ago

      You should be able to electrify all of those components at this point, no? Sorry maybe that is a dumb question, I just dont know.

  • ErikVandeWater 3 years ago

    Aren't there also invasive beetles that kill the trees?

  • BurningFrog 3 years ago

    Burying trees seems like a huge effort.

    Is there a fundamental reason you can't treat the wood to make it non flammable and non digestible, and just stack them in big piles somewhere?

    • Ancalagon 3 years ago

      Like spraying them down in PFAS, insecticide, and wrapping them in plastic? Not sure that will go over well long term.

      Edit: Hope yall realize this was sarcasm and none of these options would sequester the carbon long term.

      • qorrect 3 years ago

        > Like spraying them down in PFAS, insecticide, and wrapping them in plastic?

        Then sink them in the ocean.

        • BurningFrog 3 years ago

          Wood gets consumed in most parts of the ocean, but in at least the Baltic and Black Sea, it gets preserved for thousands of years, without any treatment.

          Aside from weighing it down enough to stop floating, of course.

      • BurningFrog 3 years ago

        Yeah, except the wrapping part is probably not needed.

  • mistrial9 3 years ago

    surveying the actual forests is ongoing, with certain old-fat-bureaucracies trying to control the budgets, with over-caffeinated do-gooders on their backs. However some good news is that an individual researcher got a Nature publication credit for a drone+machine learning method to detect dead trees, a few years ago.

    The majority of pine-beetle related deaths are in the southern range of the Sierras, south of Yosemite, but it occurs well into the North, as mentioned. Even conservatives, cant-be-bothered people have noticed the huge stands of dead trees, because you see them when driving to Yosemite for vacation. Meanwhile greens have been flipping out amongst themselves for years.

    The forest carbon studies executed on Azure cloud mentioned here, have agenda and suffer from ordinary capitalist-picked experts problems, but generally we should all support more quantitative, fact-based decision making.

    The dunce cap here definitely goes to the US Forest Service, and cronies, who have for 100 years, exercised their extensive muscle to prove without a doubt that they are in fact, red-neck badge-wearing troglodytes from a Robin Hood movie, for the most part; dramatic exceptions within the ranks noted.

    • antonymy 3 years ago

      What's the scoop on the US Forest Service? Obstruction, grift, or waste?

      • jeffbee 3 years ago

        The purpose of the USFS is to provide forest products to Americans. People project other missions onto the USFS and then point out their failures to achieve the imaginary mission.

ZeroGravitas 3 years ago

I can't tell if these people are just being very picky or if this is yet another front in the constant war to prolong climate change:

> A portion of those credits are put into a buffer account, an insurance mechanism tapped in the event that projects are lost to wildfire, disease, pests or financial risks such as bankruptcy. Those credits are meant to guarantee carbon stocks for at least 100 years. But that promise is falling short as climate change fuels intense wildfires, drought and disease, the researchers said.

> Wildfires have depleted nearly one fifth of that buffer pool in less than a decade, the analysis found.

So, they're generally giving the impression this is all a terrible scam, but the figures they quote suggest that there was planning for fire and diseas, and that the buffer is slightly more depleted than expected after a decade.

And that if lots of trees die, this will "wipe out" the extra carbon credits put aside specifically to cover the eventuality that some trees might die.

  • tedivm 3 years ago

    Wiping out 20% of the buffer in 10% of the time it was meant to last is an issue, especially when the things wiping out the buffer are accelerating.

    • ZeroGravitas 3 years ago

      I read the paper, they are mostly just being nitpicky.

      Which is good. They seem to specialise in data-based approaches to validating whether carbon offsets do what they say.

      They're not trying to discredit offsets in general, they're nerding out on subtle details of how these work.

      But the story amplifies the nitpicking to the level that other commenters can say "these are just outright fraud with made up numbers" and generally gives a false impression which feeds into the whole climate hoax thing.

      When, in reality there's a fairly complex system built-in with certification and incentives and insurance buffers. And that insurance might turn out to not be sufficient, but even if the insurance totally fails, it only then starts to eat away at the benefits.

      Note the insurance is pooled and as new projects get added, it spreads the risk further.

      Also the trees are spread across 29 states, which diversifies risk from fire and disease.

      https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/ffgc.2022.93042...

anonporridge 3 years ago

This is why I always laugh when people yell that we just need to plant more trees to solve climate change.

I've even debated on twitter with published scientists on this issue. It's odd how susceptible to naturophilia even very well educated people can be, to the point of denying what seems like an obvious conclusion.

  • s1artibartfast 3 years ago

    I mean, even if the trees lock up carbon for 50 years, it would be a huge benefit.

  • BurningFrog 3 years ago

    There is no one solution to climate change.

    Growing forests is one of many things that can be part of fixing this.

    • GloriousKoji 3 years ago

      I was going to comment on how less people is the easiest unacceptable single solution to climate change but then I considered the possibility that even if half of the world population disappeared, there's a good chance people will end up using twice as much resources.

atwood22 3 years ago

Trees should not be considered offset carbon until buried in the ground.

  • quarterdime 3 years ago

    I agree that a living tree is not much of an offset. Trees are short term (and small) carbon stores when compared to fossil fuels. However I do not think that burying a tree solves the problem. Unless we find a way to prevent fungus from breaking down lignin, I am not sure that burying a tree is a viable long solution for carbon sequestration. It is outside of my area of expertise, but I can find at least one paper that suggests that coal deposits formed before the evolution of fungal species that could break down lignin (https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1221748). It is extremely difficult to turn CO2 back into coal. I am in favor of reducing forest loss (and ideally increasing forest area), but I am unconvinced that it will have any meaningful effect on atmospheric carbon in the near, mid, or long term.

    • alexose 3 years ago

      There's some research that shows that burying logs super deep (beneath the biologically active layer) is an effective method of long-term sequestration: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35362755/

      • vitiral 3 years ago

        So deep strip mine a forest and bury the logs.

        Man, environmentalism sure has changed a lot over the decades...

        • revolvingocelot 3 years ago

          Well, not a mature forest, but one of those "tree farms" of evenly spaced monoculture sounds like it'd be a great candidate.

          Of course, since those tree farms are explicitly for production and therefore owned by the owner class, who don't really want anything to do with this whole unprofitable "saving the planet" thing, the above scenario is more likely -- but all I meant to suggest is that it'd be possible to use this method and not destroy precious biodiversity at the same time.

      • asquabventured 3 years ago

        Coal regeneration for the future generation!

twawaaay 3 years ago

It is called "carbon cycle" for a reason.

No amount of trees or other biomass can revert what we have done or even make a significant dent.

Currently, all biomass on Earth equals about a decade of our emissions from carbon we dug out. Even doubling all biomass, which is impossible to do, would only be roughly equal to pausing our emissions for a decade.

That is, assuming all that biomass does not revert into carbon through fires and other ways.

buscoquadnary 3 years ago

I think the BOFH has a great article about Carbon Credits

https://www.theregister.com/2008/02/01/bofh_episode_4/

vanattab 3 years ago

Can you destroy financial fiction with fire?

makotech221 3 years ago

Carbon credits are a way for the capitalist class to white wash their climate crimes. I'm sure planting 10 trees will offset their daily personal jet flights...

pvaldes 3 years ago

Substitute "wildfires" with "environmental terrorism"

Keyboard Shortcuts

j
Next item
k
Previous item
o / Enter
Open selected item
?
Show this help
Esc
Close modal / clear selection