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Study: Association between mask mandates and Covid infections in North Dakota

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67 points by UkrainianJew 3 years ago · 104 comments (96 loaded)

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AnthonBerg 3 years ago

We also did not have data on the types of masks being worn or on masking adherence rates in the two school districts

It is known that this is an aerosolized pandemic. Airborne. Cloth and surgical masks do not work.

Source – there are many to choose from: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S014067362...

The posted study on mandates has effectively no meaning. Closed FFP2/N95-style masks work. This is fact. A mandate does not make such masks magically appear on people’s faces. Therefore it is obvious that there is no effective correlation between the word “mandate” and what SARS-CoV-2 does.

  • tzs 3 years ago

    That's awfully binary. With SARS-CoV-2 it is a probabilistic thing, where your chances of actually getting an infection depends on how much SARS-CoV-2 you are exposed to and for how long.

    Even a cloth or surgical mask does lower that probability. Not enough that it is likely to make a difference if you are going to be exposed for a long time, such as spending hours in room with infected people like might happen at school.

    But if you are say going to just do say a quick trip to the grocery store and you only have a surgical mask available, wearing it will lower your chances of getting COVID at the grocery store compared to going maskless.

    Some sources: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abg6296 , https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7106e1.htm .

    • tinus_hn 3 years ago

      Do note that at least that first source is just people theorizing it should work, not people checking if it actually does work.

  • glerk 3 years ago

    This has been known since 2020. From the beginning, the public health message could have been "protect yourself using a N-95 mask", but for some reason they went with "protect others using a cloth/surgical mask".

    The only reasonable explanation I can find for this is that N-95 masks were in short supply at the time and they had to be saved for medical professionals. We needed a distraction to prevent the general public from hoarding N-95 masks.

    But here we are, 2 years later, still debating whether masks with holes orders of magnitude larger than the airborne virus particles they are supposed to stop are effective.

    • bsilvereagle 3 years ago

      > whether masks with holes orders of magnitude larger than the airborne virus particles they are supposed to stop are effective

      N95 masks work due to a dipole charge, not necessarily because of the mechanical filtration size.

      https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7724761/

      • ceejayoz 3 years ago

        They've also got a substantially better seal around the edges.

      • AlexandrB 3 years ago

        Errr, the linked study directly contradicts your point:

        > In both respirators, large decreases in the dipole charge density were observed after several heat treatments. However, there was no significant drop in filtration efficiency because multiple parameters (i.e., mechanical filtration) were involved in the filtration performance.

      • nerfhammer 3 years ago

        minutephysics has a nice video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAdanPfQdCA

    • ISL 3 years ago

      I believe that you are entirely correct. One of the big lessons-learned is that the response should have been: "N95s work. They are very important. If you hoard them, healthcare professionals will die. Please donate your extras to your nearest hospital."

      I saw firsthand, working with findthemasks.com, just how many people came to that conclusion on their own and rapidly aggregated and donated as many N95s as they could.

      It is bonkers to me that we're not all wearing N95s by default until case-rates really come down, but I have accepted that our current state is the way of the world.

      • creato 3 years ago

        I’m fully on board with “N95s work” but I still think this information is near useless from a public health point of view. They need to be fitted properly, which among other things, means being clean shaven. If you thought mask mandates were political trouble, just wait for the shaving mandate.

        • jacobolus 3 years ago

          N95 masks still work (substantially reduce spread when worn by index patient and/or their contacts) when not fitted carefully. They then don’t live up to their rated specification, but are still a whole lot better than nothing or a lower-filtration mask.

      • dmix 3 years ago

        There were major community backed PPE donation drives parked outside many hospitals providing nurses/doctors with quality gear as they walked into work.

        This is the sort of thing gov will have years to solve but I’m sure many will fail to do it and a bunch of countries will be pushing surgical masks then next pandemic (or Covid 2.0).

      • HKH2 3 years ago

        How long can you wear an N95?

        • bad416f1f5a2 3 years ago

          Not sure how to parse the question; answering both ways.

          How long can a person wear one? The few times I work in office I wear one all day, and don’t find it difficult.

          How long can a single N95 be reused? I’d read research indicating the real limiting factor seems to be the quality of the seal, and the straps tend to fail before the mask loses efficacy. Basically, if it seals without air escape, you’re good.

          • HKH2 3 years ago

            > How long can a person wear one? The few times I work in office I wear one all day, and don’t find it difficult.

            I can't wear the 3M ones I have (with a decent seal) for longer than half an hour without getting lightheaded.

            • bad416f1f5a2 3 years ago

              You might try to switch your respirator. The Aura series (3M 9210+ being the best Aura, IME) and VFlex (3M 9105) seem to be very comfortable and easy to breathe for me & others who I've shared them with. In general, a larger surface area makes it easier to breathe.

              Another option is to look for a respirator with an exhalation valve. You give up a level of source control but any exhortations to "protect others!" is pretty silly when they come from people who aren't wearing anything to protect themselves. The Aura has a vented model (9211+) which I've not tried but have heard excellent things about.

              You could also consider a half-face elastomeric respirator. You wouldn't expect it, but I've found the ones made with a quality silicone material (3m 75xx / Honeywell North 7700) to be far more comfortable than disposable N95s. They have far more breathable area, which is a major plus. When adjusted properly, they also do not "dig into your face" the same way disposable respirators do - you can keep the straps surprisingly loose & still maintain a seal. And they have a much lower TCO because the respirator media lasts for a long time. Muffled speech is the biggest problem, but speech diaphragms go a ways towards fixing that.

              In general though, as you move up the ladder of protection you end up using tools that are both more effective & more comfortable. Pre-pandemic I had a crawlspace under my house spray foam insulated. A team of three guys crawled around under my house in mid-August while wearing full face respirators. They told me they were actually more comfortable than the old half-mask / goggles combination they used to use.

        • vpilcx 3 years ago

          they were designed to be disposable, but when they were in short supply at the start of the pandemic, medical professionals were wearing them up to a month. There was a study that you could treat them with, I think, UV light, oh no wait, it was put them in the oven at a certain temperature, to extend their viability up to a certain point, but I think practically, most people switch off every week or so unless in extremely high risk situations.

    • kurupt213 3 years ago

      They’ve known since SARS… like 15 years. There’s a paper about SARS burning through an apartment complex because a breeze blew contaminated air out one window and into the open window of a neighboring building

    • jvanderbot 3 years ago

      I thought that "airborne" meant "could survive in water aerosols for long enough to get breathed in" not "sprouted little virus wings and flew through any hole it could fit through"

      And I assumed water droplets were in fact several orders of magnitude larger than the virus, but would still be caught my masks. Otherwise what's the point for any virus?

      • jacobolus 3 years ago

        The water droplets are several orders of magnitude larger than the virus, but still small enough for some of them to fit through the gaps in a cloth mask (but almost none make it past an N95 mask).

        The cloth mask still stops the vast majority of such drops, cutting risk significantly compared to no mask.

    • doktorhladnjak 3 years ago

      If spread was by large droplets, cloth and surgical masks worn as source control (by those infected) are effective. The problem is that it took a very long time before experts began to agree that spread is not just by droplets but by aerosols as well.

  • gruez 3 years ago

    >Source – there are many to choose from: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S014067362...

    control-f for "mask": 1 match, and it's in a sentence talking about how mask quality and fit is important to preventing infection, but doesn't elaborate on the effectiveness of cloth/surgical vs n95 masks.

    On the other hand there are also studies that show it working, eg. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...

    >The surgical and N95 masks were both effective in significantly reducing the risk of infection, which together with the finding that 30% of non-infected staff did not use masks (table 2) supports that transmission is not airborne.

    Do you have better a better study for this, preferably some sort of meta-study?

  • senectus1 3 years ago

    >Cloth and surgical masks do not work.

    this sort of statement really bugs me.

    anything that slows the airspeed/spread is helpful. and there for "works". A cloth mask is definitely better than no mask... its has a much higher chance of catching larger droplets than no mask, it has a much higher chance of rate limiting even smaller droplets than no mask.

    if 100% of the population worse cloth masks you would get a significant reduction of spread just because of the rate limiting.

    N95 masks are not 100% effective.. so do we claim that they "Dont Work" as well? no we dont.

    Nothing is black and white. nothing is works or doesn't work... every little step on the way every little effort all helps and by extension "Works".

    • nathanaldensr 3 years ago

      Your argument, like many people made at the time this started, is purely technical. It only considers the virus itself to be the thing needing to be solved, rather than considering second-order effects.

    • josephcsible 3 years ago

      If we banned all access to beaches, that would be helpful and "work" to reduce the number of people who get killed by sharks. If we should mandate cloth masks, then why shouldn't we do that too?

  • throwoutway 3 years ago

    > Closed FFP2/N95-style masks work.

    Schools are not going to mandate this, and even if they do kids will wear them loose/wrong. So knowing that, where do school boards go from here?

    • amluto 3 years ago

      Now? Strongly encourage everyone to get vaccinated (to protect themselves, not others — the current vaccines don’t provide substantial protection to others any more). Encourage people who feel the need for extra personal protection to wear N95 masks and feel comfortable doing so. Encourage anyone who is sick to stay home (which was good sense before COVID anyway). Try to improve ventilation (which is also a good idea regardless of COVID). Encourage students to spend more time outside (again, a good idea regardless of COVID). And accept that outbreaks are going to happen.

      There is, currently, no magic bullet available that will work in a school setting.

    • ClumsyPilot 3 years ago

      ventillation, air purifiers and upper-room UV sterilisation are all cheap and practical solutions that shoukd be installed in every public building.

      the fact thats uts still nit obvious, 2 years on us absurd

  • chiefalchemist 3 years ago

    Source? How about the CDC? They came out on this as well and that science has been completely ignored. There's been no massive public health push, etc. Nothing.

    Makes ya wonder.

  • russellbeattie 3 years ago

    JFC. Masks stop your spit from flying. It's about protecting others, not you.

  • MuchoMaas 3 years ago

    Setting aside for a moment the fact that chronic, day-in-day-out long term use of N95s has never been studied for potential ill effects, why is it so difficult to discern any reduction in community transmission from Germany's N95 mandates?

    • ceejayoz 3 years ago

      > Setting aside for a moment the fact that chronic, day-in-day-out long term use of N95s has never been studied for potential ill effects...

      There are professions that've been doing this for decades without any apparent negative impacts.

      • GekkePrutser 3 years ago

        Yeah but not the same mask cumpled up in a pocket for so long it's become fluffy. I really wonder if that fine plastic material doesn't cause issues over time. The healthcare community is not a good benchmark for this because they have boxes full of fresh ones available everywhere and they change it every time they take it off. So they never wear a badly worn one.

      • happyopossum 3 years ago

        Which profession requires constant 8-10hr a day use of an N95 mask?

        • ceejayoz 3 years ago

          Some forms of mining, asbestos remediation, industrial work, etc.

          They've been used extensively by enough people the burden of proof lies on the folks claiming they're somehow dangerous at this point.

          • avar 3 years ago

            If you look at EU standards for asbestos removal [1] this really isn't the case. Ditto for the other examples you cite.

            Almost nobody doing industrial work with comparable PPE doesn't spend at least 1-2 hours of a typical workday out of the PPE.

            The linked PDF has an example of a typical workday when removing asbestos, note how many times it involves putting on or taking off the PPE.

            I'm not making any claim about COVID mask mandates, other than your examples seeming irrelevant to "chronic, day-in-day-out long term use of N95s".

            https://ec.europa.eu/social/BlobServlet?docId=7478&langId=en

            • ceejayoz 3 years ago

              > Almost nobody doing industrial work with comparable PPE doesn't spend at least 1-2 hours of a typical workday out of the PPE.

              Which leaves many thousands of hours in PPE, for many thousands of people. If the N95 masks caused health issues, we'd know. If someone can demonstrate a) a mechanism and b) any evidence for such an effect, I'm all ears.

              • avar 3 years ago

                It does, and I think that's a reasonable argument & comparison, but it isn't the same as the one you were making initially, which is all I'm pointing out.

rayiner 3 years ago

> Our findings contribute to a growing body of literature which suggests school-based mask mandates have limited to no impact on the case rates of COVID-19 among K-12 students.

I’m glad that public health officials are actually doing this research and publishing these conclusions. Maybe I’ve gotten cynical, but I was worried that there would be limited retrospection about positions taken during the pandemic given the political sensitivities.

  • indymike 3 years ago

    > Maybe I’ve gotten cynical, but I was worried that there would be limited retrospection about positions taken during the pandemic given the political sensitivities.

    Hopefully we learn from our mistakes and are better prepared for the next pandemic.

    • me_me_me 3 years ago

      > Hopefully we learn from our mistakes and are better prepared for the next pandemic.

      Hehe, that's a great joke to start monday with

    • barry-cotter 3 years ago

      That was a good laugh. Thanks.

    • IAmGraydon 3 years ago

      Monkeypox is now at 10,000 cases worldwide with a growth rate of 12% per day and we're seeing the same lagged response as we did with Covid. We've learned nothing.

      • collegeburner 3 years ago

        It is almost entirely in populations of men who have sex with many male partners in western countries. It is much easier to reduce number of partners and be monogamous for a while (basically removes risk of monkeypox) than lock down everything (needed to remove most risk of covid).

        • dragonwriter 3 years ago

          > It is almost entirely in populations of men who have sex with many male partners in western countries

          That's in part because health authorities are using being in that demographic as a major factor (and in some cases, a mandatory criteria, even if a very clear symptom pattern is present) for getting tested. They've literally made a decision to avoid/minimize seeing it outside of that demographic.

        • amluto 3 years ago

          Is it? I can’t find much real data, and, at least in the US, monkeypox surveillance appears to be at least as poor as COVID surveillance early in the pandemic.

          • collegeburner 3 years ago

            The french health authority is suggesting they should be vaxxed along with sex workers and some trans people: https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/...

            They based the decision on data showing that almost all cases involve that demographic.

            • amluto 3 years ago

              Is there near term availability of enough doses of a nice vaccine (e.g. MVA-BN/Imvanex/Jynneos) to vaccinate the entire MSM population?

              The US has a large stockpile of ACAM2000, but it is unpleasant, potentially dangerous, and has at least a mild FDA warning for use in patients with HIV.

      • gruez 3 years ago

        >Monkeypox is now at 10,000 cases worldwide with a growth rate of 12% per day

        Unless there's some additional context to this the figure of "12% per day" doesn't tell me much. Is this better or worse than covid? How does it compare to other endemic infections like the flu? Without knowing how bad the spread rate is, it's hard to know whether "the same lagged response" is justified or not.

      • indymike 3 years ago

        > We've learned nothing.

        I'm not sure. The vaccine situation is much better than COVID. It's still really scary, and I hope we can get it under control soon.

  • timbit42 3 years ago

    I find it interesting the US is talking about the value, or lack thereof, of mask use among K-12 students.

    In my country, the concern wasn't transmission among K-12 students, who are at lower risk, but instead, transmission from K-12 students to adults who were at higher risk of hospitalization and/or death.

imnotreallynew 3 years ago

There’s been quite a few of these studies, all with similar results. What’s unfortunate is that the remarkable “penetration” of the idea that cloth and standard surgical masks provided “adequate” (by any measure) protection was so great and peddled by such influential persons that there are now those who, despite plain empirical evidence, still maintain masks provide some material amount of benefit.

I wonder at what point such people will began to consider the evidence in earnest, regardless of the fact that most of these mandates have thankfully been repealed.

  • robswc 3 years ago

    I had the (mis)fortune of being on a college campus during the height of covid. I'm totally down for taking precautions. I'm not down for the idea that this behavior can't go too far.

    I remember seeing a kid forget to wear one and he was treated like a plague rat for the all of 5 seconds before he realized what was going on.

    Also, the "mask" thing was _never_ clear. It flipped very frequently. Sure, science can change but if its "changing" that much, that fast it does make me loose a bit of faith.

  • h2odragon 3 years ago

    Religious belief is easier to create than rational opinion.

jtorsella 3 years ago

I'm surprised nobody has raised concerns about the authors. This group is notorious for producing near-fraudulent preprints in support of their preconceptions and widely publicizing them. Tracy Hoeg was responsible for an atrocious VAERS-based study making false claims about vaccine safety, and Neeraj Sood was intimately involved in the Hoover Institution's successful efforts in March/April 2020 to persuade certain media figures that Covid was less deadly than the flu. You can read more about that VAERS preprint here: https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/peer-review-of-a-vaers-dump... and some related recent work around child vaccines here: https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/an-impossible-trial/. I believe the third author is a professional covid skeptic associated with the organization "rational ground". This is not a reliable set of sources. I will have time to dig in later, but if this is anything like the rest of their work it's worthless garbage.

  • toomim 3 years ago

    Why don't you read the paper and address its evidence and logic instead of ignoring it entirely for an ad-hominem attack on the authors?

    Ad-hominem attacks are worthless on any politically-contentious issue, because of course people are going to be trying to destroy the reputation of scientists who present data that opposes a political narrative.

    • RayVR 3 years ago

      In fields where uncovering methodological flaws or malfeasance is difficult, prior history of the authors is a useful first approximation of how seriously the conclusions should be taken.

    • jacobolus 3 years ago

      This pandemic has sparked a whole industry of politically motivated “scientists” overhyping and misstating the results of their poorly designed studies. Examining the authors’ affiliations and past work is a good way to avoid wasting time.

      There are dozens of other studies about this topic, many of them done carefully by serious researchers.

philliphaydon 3 years ago

Doesn’t seem like a very ground study. But living in Asia has taught me masks do work, and they work at school. My 3yo doesn’t get a cold when the 1 kid in the class is sneezing and coughing. The 1 case of covid didn’t spread in the school to Teachers or students.

But I get there’s a bunch of adults who can’t wear masks as well as a 3yo so in that case the adults are more likely to catch or spread covid with their inability to wear masks right.

  • josephcsible 3 years ago

    Your one anecdote overturns this whole study?

    • hetman 3 years ago

      It might illuminate the limitations of the study.

    • allisdust 3 years ago

      People want to fit their observations into their belief systems. Whether something is really true is always going to be debated endlessly in this polarised world.

  • MuchoMaas 3 years ago

    That's nice. My kids' preschool in a blue state which mandated masks until spring of this year had constantly recurring COVID cases and exposures, including a Delta infection my kids brought home in October last year and passed to me.

    • ceejayoz 3 years ago

      A preschool is... not the best-case scenario for proper mask wearing technique.

      • nathanaldensr 3 years ago

        I don't think GP was speaking about the technique but rather alluding to the uselessness of the mandates.

  • sveng 3 years ago

    This article is a pre-print, not yet peer reviewed. Look closely at the writings and affiliations of the second and third authors.

  • amluto 3 years ago

    In Asia, actual decent factory-made masks seem to have been widely available for years. I would believe that the effects of people in Asia wearing masks sold in Asia is not the same as people in America wearing masks sold in America.

    • philliphaydon 3 years ago

      I don’t know what the quality of masks is like overseas but one thing you don’t see is cloth masks. If you do see them they are always over the top of an actual mask just for a fancy design. But never cloth only.

      • GekkePrutser 3 years ago

        Here in Spain there were lots of cloth masks. And I've never seen people wear two of any type.

      • nabakin 3 years ago

        What is considered an actual mask here? N95, surgical, or something else?

        • philliphaydon 3 years ago

          Surgical Mask (3ply) and N95.

          Pretty much all masks are surgical 3ply now, at the start of covid it was quite hit and miss, alot of 'surgical' were not 3ply.

    • GekkePrutser 3 years ago

      I don't know about America but every pack of masks I've bought in Europe has been made in China. Always comes with one of those little white papers with don't Chinese scribbles and a red star stamped on it. Even when the packaging is in the local language.

    • barry-cotter 3 years ago

      People do not wear masks with a tight seal. Of the last 20 people I saw there were 19 cloth masks, one that is maybe capable of keeping a seal. Lots of chinstraps too. Shanghai.

edmcnulty101 3 years ago

It's not necessarily because masks don't work, medical professionals use them to great success.

Mask usage at the community level does not follow the same strict policies related to mask usage that medical professionals do, like discarding them between operations.

Wearing the same mask over and over every day and removing it when you sit down to eat is a very ineffective policy.

And it's kind of an abuse of power for the government to mandate something with such weak science.

  • AnthonBerg 3 years ago

    This is a common misconception. The blame lies squarely on a grand failure of delivery of public health information.

    Outside an industrialized hospital sanitization chain, it’s actually fine to reuse a mask – as long as it’s a mask that works against SARS-CoV-2 aerosol to begin with.

    I can provide sources.

    • gadflyinyoureye 3 years ago

      Please do. From what I've seen the best and science-based answer is that masks don't work. Air filtration does. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZFjLFqESxY0.

      As another pointed out in a different sub-thread, N95s work as long as they are fit-tested and worn to spec. If you have facial hair, muss the banding so that it doesn't form a perfect seal, etc., the N95 might help, but is not a solution. This means that people with facial hair will not benefit from N95 neither in the form of protection of self nor others.

      We have seen in the US that children are now develop-mentally behind. The US govern said what was normal for 24 month child is now normal for a 30 month child. All for a mask program that never worked.

    • edmcnulty101 3 years ago

      This article that you are replying to seems to work to contradict your claim and I've read numerous others that seem to as well.

      Would love to see your sources if you have them handy.

    • edmcnulty101 3 years ago

      Ping

  • LewisVerstappen 3 years ago

    Teachers unions in the US are absurdly powerful unfortunately.

    • formerkrogemp 3 years ago

      > Teachers unions in the US are absurdly powerful unfortunately.

      I doubt that very much given the spate of laws controlling teachers passed recently, the record low pay, record staffing shortages, and record resignations.

xracy 3 years ago

This is a preprint study, also worth noting that the collection data for how they determined if the masks were being worn, was self-reported by the parents and school administrators.

gibbitz 3 years ago

It seems that we're missing that this trend is likely due to the students contracting the disease outside of school. Most accidents happen within 30 miles of home doesn't mean you can take your seatbelts off when you are 31 miles away. This whole study exists to allow people to say masks don't help when they don't want to wear one. I get that there was a unique opportunity to compare and contrast here but what was being measured was only partly affected by the mandate. Regardless of the quality of the science here, the results are surprising, but I wonder what the comparison with a blue state district where the same mandates were in place would be...

chmorgan 3 years ago

Another in a line of studies that have for a few years now been supporting this conclusion.

The sad part is the hundreds of thousands of tons of waste produced due to ineffective mask materials, design, and usage.

ClumsyPilot 3 years ago

three words: Upper Room UVGI

https://mobile.twitter.com/RealSexyCyborg/status/15122577603...

xlaacid 3 years ago

The amount of variables not accounted for in this "natural experiment" is unfathomable. How did this get through a peer review....... oh wait, it didnt.

Also, look under the authors, it lists "truth in data LLc" a right wing conspiracy nuthouse.

chiefalchemist 3 years ago

> Our findings contribute to a growing body of literature which suggests school-based mask mandates have limited to no impact on the case rates of COVID-19 among K-12 students.

As expected.

Simply put, as the science now states, the majority of masks weren't worth wearing. If it's not a KN95 or better, it's all but pointless. That is, you're effectively wearing no mask at all.

We know this. Yet occasionally mask mandates kick in again, and the updated science (i.e., KN95 or better) is completely ignored.

The disconnect - and those virtue signaling with subpar masks - is disturbing.

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