In Karachi, hot weather is normal but 44°C feels like you’re going to die
theguardian.comRecommended reading about the topic of climate change and wet bulb temperatures:
Kim Stanley Robinson's novel "The Ministry for the Future".
Here's the blurb from goodreads:
Established in 2025, the purpose of the new organization was simple: To advocate for the world's future generations and to protect all living creatures, present and future. It soon became known as the Ministry for the Future, and this is its story.
From legendary science fiction author Kim Stanley Robinson comes a vision of climate change unlike any ever imagined.
Told entirely through fictional eye-witness accounts, The Ministry For The Future is a masterpiece of the imagination, the story of how climate change will affect us all over the decades to come.
Its setting is not a desolate, post-apocalyptic world, but a future that is almost upon us - and in which we might just overcome the extraordinary challenges we face.
It is a novel both immediate and impactful, desperate and hopeful in equal measure, and it is one of the most powerful and original books on climate change ever written.
If I understand this right, this is not just the heat, but the humidity as well. The UK Daily Telegraph had an article[1] about how nearby Jacobabad crossed the 35C wet bulb reading threshold, at which point — according to the article — the body can no longer cool itself.
I assume Karachi isn’t that bad yet. A cursory Google search showed a wet bulb reading of 27C for Karachi — still very hot but not life-threateningly so. In fact, the Telegraph article notes that those who can afford it spend the summer in Quetta or Karachi.
Of course this article also focuses on the cost of electricity and air conditioning, which is a major factor as well.
[1] https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/climate-and-people...
> I assume Karachi isn’t that bad yet.
Weather or climate? Weather is incidental. In terms of climate, further increases for decades are locked in from past emissions we can't change.
For the present, at each moment, we can choose to contribute to further suffering or not. As you mentioned, it's becoming life-threatening.
Exactly two things work: reducing our consumption and reducing our birth rate. Mechai Viravaidya in Thailand showed how to reduce birth rate in the opposite of China's One Child policy or eugenics -- that is, voluntary, noncoercive, even fun -- as did Costa Rica, Iran, and several other countries. Most Americans can improve their quality of life by lowering consumption. I reduced mine over 90% with just life improvements. I estimate most Americans can reduce theirs 80% or more without sacrifice, just improvements. The most polluting can probably reduce theirs 99%.
Systemic change begins with personal transformation. Government and corporations will follow individual action, as they historically have. Personal transformation enables us to lead others. Leading others has the biggest effect because it multiplies.
To act here and now, the most important thing we can do is to learn leadership skills to lead ourselves and others.
> The UK Daily Telegraph had an article about how nearby Jacobabad crossed the 35C wet bulb reading threshold, at which point — according to the article — the body can no longer cool itself.
Not quite. At 35C, the body can no longer maintain a normal body temperature, and simply standing outside in the shade will cause everyone to run a fever. However, a degree of fever is not dangerous in otherwise healthy individuals. So at 35C people can cool themselves, but only at an elevated temperature.
However, add a degree above that, and all the elderly and infirm will die. Add two degrees, and even healthy people start dropping like flies.
Humidity is the killer at those temperature ranges. Here we got a bit of a micro-climate because of large bodies of water and whenever temperature goes past 25ºC it's already highly uncomfortable, whereas 25ºC in other parts of the country, even the ones known as hot, is rather comfortable. Just a couple kilometers north, 35ºC are barely noticeable in comparison, even under the sun. (Sure makes your skin burn with all the fury of Helios, but it doesn't make you dizzy and tired like a high humidity area does at much lower temps)
Our highest registered temperature was an exceptional peak of 52ºC for two days. Was a bit of a massacre, specially on elders. There's no record of those days publicly for some reason, but all locals remember it well.
The high humidity saturation seems to negatively affect evaporation of sweat, making you constantly drenched even with no clothes on. It's a kind of hell you can't escape, only hope it passes soon.
The issue with wet bulb temperature is even worse.
You don't need to have an average to hit anywhere close to it.
Just one single event, wave of temperature over 36 degrees is most likely going to kill millions of people if it hits densely populated area with people having no infrastructure to cool themselves. And no, spraying with water will not help, by very definition.
I guess jumping into a body of water which has a cooler temperature would still help? Jumping into water which is 36 degrees or warmer wouldn't.
This is India. A lot of people just don't live close to a body of water. Getting any water is a huge issue.
Can you imagine millions of people running to cool in the river? What with elderly and children?
Pakistan, not India
Obviously, you are right. Thanks.
Akhand Bharat /s
Sheesh, I'm just asking in general about the body, not about logistics...
It depends because wet bulb temperature is normally significantly below ambient temperature. If ambient temperature was 45C a large body of water might be at 38C while wet bulb was 36C. At which point jumping into the water would be a bad idea.
It really just comes down to infrastructure. It’s possible to prepare for such events, but without large scale preparation they turn deadly.
Water conducts heat better than air. At exactly 36C wet bulb poeple would be running a fever but a large body of water would cool them better than air at 36C.
However, 100% humidity is rare it’s normal for the actual temperature to be higher than the wet bulb temperature. So local large bodies of water might actually be significantly higher than 36C at the time.
That's what I did when I lived without AC where it gets above 100F with high humidity. I would fill up the bathtub will cold water and cool off that way every few hours during the day when I was at home. I guess the water came from underground storage, it was plenty cold enough for that purpose.
It was 116 in Portland last week. Even with low humidity, it was hell. No A/C in most homes. Never got below 80-something in my apartment for 3 days.
Hot is hot.
>I assume Karachi isn’t that bad yet.
This site is showing quite a bit higher than 27C wet-bulb temp:
https://meteologix.com/pk/observations/pakistan/wet-bulb-tem...
That’s the site I referred to as well, but I found it a bit hard to use, with the ads and all.
Am I reading the map right? Karachi to me shows 27. But scarily for other places there’s 39 and even 41 in there.
Yes, that area (Jacobabad[1], Sukkur, ...) is not habitable without the use of AC/underground dwellings.
[1] - https://www.financialexpress.com/lifestyle/science/swelterin...
You could argue that lifting hundreds of millions of people out of poverty will make things worse. They will all want air-conditioning.
And they deserve it the same as any of us. We need to do the work so them having that same comfort we've enjoyed for over half a century doesn't destroy the environment further.
No matter how bearable the current climate is, it will only get less bearable.
Unfortunately, this seems to be the new norm.
Even in Canada, we are breaking records for heat. Temperatures have reached 49 C / 120 F
Despite that, I believe Canada will be a major recipient of these climate refugees when places just get too hot to live in.
That'll also be an option reserved for the privileged.
The problem is that you can't easily move hundreds of millions of people.
When the weather becomes lethal, these people are going to die.
The only realistic solution is building infrastructure to let people live through the worst of the weather.
If it is as bad as it is described in the article, I worry about long term prospects of stable economy and progress, what with people occupied mostly with trying to survive another hellish day.
I think if hundreds of millions of people were faced with unliveable conditions, they would be strongly incentivized to move themselves. Also, it would more likely be a migration that plays out over the span of, say, a generation.
In 2020 it was estimated that 55 million people were displaced due to climate and weather events, more than 3 times the number displaced by conflict and violence. So the mass migration is already well under way.
I think you do not understand.
When a heat wave comes the people will not be able to "move" themselves.
Most of these people don't have means to do so in best of times.
Most people have feet. They move by putting one foot in front of the other. People have travelled all over the world using this ancient technique.
If by norm you mean the slope, yes. If you meant the y intercept, no. Soon it will be hotter. In Karachi and where you live too.
To change the slope, exactly two things work: reducing our consumption and reducing our birth rate. Mechai Viravaidya in Thailand showed how to reduce birth rate in the opposite of China's One Child policy or eugenics -- that is, voluntary, noncoercive, even fun -- as did Costa Rica, Iran, and several other countries. Most Americans can improve their quality of life by lowering consumption. I reduced mine over 90% with just life improvements. I estimate most Americans can reduce theirs 80% or more without sacrifice, just improvements. The most polluting can probably reduce theirs 99%.
Systemic change begins with personal transformation. Government and corporations will follow individual action, as they historically have. Personal transformation enables us to lead others. Leading others has the biggest effect because it multiplies.
> Despite that, I believe Canada will be a major recipient of these climate refugees when places just get too hot to live in.
In what sense would these people be climate refugees rather than infrastructure refugees? What percentage of Canada's population can survive in Canada without canada's infrastructure ?
If you read the article, a major problem the author is complaining about is the infrastructure:
> The electricity problems make it worse. The load-shedding comes during summer months and, these days, often falls in Ramadan, when people can’t drink water.
I used to think that climate change won’t be so bad for the northern countries, as they are colder anyway, with perhaps some more extreme weather. Now it seems more and more that all countries will be affected. Even northern ones, with occasional crazy heat waves.
In BC, Canada the Heat record was broken by almost 5C.
> And it’s getting worse. Now it goes above 40C on an average day, and the intensity of the heat is different to when I was growing up in the city; the sunlight’s brighter, more piercing.
This links to: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/may/05/one-bill...
Titled: One billion people will live in insufferable heat within 50 years – study
Can't they just link to historical temperature records for Karachi rather?
Are we going to have to start living underground? I went to Beer Caves [0] in the UK recently, where I was told that no matter the outside temperature it was always a consistent temperature within the caves (which was great for mushroom farming in the caves).
Obviously living in a cave is not great, but properly built underground habitats?
Flooding is a major problem with underground construction. Not the best as the ocean level rises. Air circulation is also a mess, because CO2 is heavier than oxygen. Evacuating a tall building is relatively easy; most people can go downstairs without a huge issue. Fleeing upstairs, on the other hand, is something fewer people can do. And once you get a blockade of people who can't make it, even the healthiest can get trapped.
Underground does sound promising but doing it at scale for a large number of people… I wonder how viable that is, and if it’ll cause structural issues at the surface. Also in this specific case they may need dehumidifiers.
The other option is heat pumps that exchange heat with the ground. These are slowly becoming more popular in the UK, for instance, but aren’t cheap.
I live where it is 30C during summer (low humidity) and about 10C during winter - Mediterranean climate thanks to proximity to the two oceans (Atlantic/Indian) which differs in temperature.
One of the main reasons why I would never move to another part of the country.
Unless I see resonantly well documented rising temperatures, I'm not inclined to believe that there are climate extremes any different from what are normal variations. ( and no this does not mean we get a free pass to mess up the environment, which IMO need to be cleaned up big time).
People have very short memories, and often it is the _current_ summer/winter that appears to be the harshest to them, not the one that happened 20 years ago. Memories are even more shorter when it is generational.
There are well-documented rising temperatures. TBH, it sounds like you've made up your mind and are unwilling to examine the mounds of evidence that exist to support that. This visualization from NASA directly contradicts any notion of a generational memory explanation:
https://climate.nasa.gov/interactives/climate-time-machine/
As a bonus, it also demonstrates that climate != weather. Even as the whole map is turning red, there's still a few cooler spots in any given year. There's just less and less.
What I'm also skeptical is about the "mounds of evidence". And no, I didn't start out as skeptic decades back.
Check back my comment (the one that you responded to) some years from now and reach out to me if needed. I skimmed through your other comments on other subjects, you'll probably get there where I currently am. A weird response to your response I know...
Out of curiosity, what makes you skeptical about the evidence?
- It seems the debate is about 0.8°C temperature rise since 1880. The figure of 0.8°C in my opinion is not statistically significant for various reasons including thermometer inaccuracies, and normal variations of temperature. There seems to be a general agreement of increase in CO2. It appears that the most significant greenhouse ‘gas’ is water vapor, about 98%. I got these figures from a talk by a noble prize winner, who got around to checking the published figures.
- Statistics can be variously interpreted unless there is a huge significant differences. The 'significant' part is completely subjective.
- Media and govt need to keep the masses engaged on distractions with the news. If govt/people were truly serious about climate (or what ever is the correct terminology) change. They would be making radical changes not tiny changes. Example of a big change work places can be moved to places where people can walk to work. example of tiny feel good change that does nothing: separate recycle form other trash.
- Changing narrative from govt, in the 60s it was global cooling, which changed to global warming, and is now labeled as climate change. Notice that most people who take up these 'causes' are young. They have no any knowledge of what the narrative was in the 60s.
- In addition to manipulating numbers, all numbers can be cooked up with impunity, this is true for corporates, scientific establishments, govts. Barring exceptions there are enough incentives to lie, and generally disincentives if one were to tell the truth.
Note I'm not claiming that there is no climate change, there is not way for me or you to know that. I do know for a fact that the environment is indeed messed up big time. The smell/taste of air/food/water/products is telling. I don't think this is debatable. The environment should be first priority and perhaps the climate change will take of itself.
That's 111 degrees Fahrenheit for the Imperialists.
Are you descring the system of measures or the foreign policy?
The tone of so many articles and comments online seems to be "Shrug, not much we can do about it". Or pedantically arguing about minutia.
Between this and the pandemic response in so many places, I'm not so sure humanity is going to be around in a century or two.
The rich will live in climate controlled domes on remote islands or ships, while billions of people starve, overheat, or fight over scraps. The global "elite" rich have a serious blind-spot though: They never seem to realize that they rely on a massive robust web of interconnected humanity to support their wealth and privilege. From billions of farmers, miners, craftspeople, teachers, to workers of all types, the global rich live at the top of a massive pyramid of humanity.
Makes me wonder if the person who is desperately trying to bootstrap a society on Mars has the right idea...
Sorry for a depressing comment. It's sobering to know that despite having another 50 years or so of life left to live, I will probably die in a food riot or from home invaders looking for water and food.
> The global "elite" rich have a serious blind-spot though: They never seem to realize that they rely on a massive robust web of interconnected humanity to support their wealth and privilege.
I'm not particularly convinced of this line of argumentation. The amount of hubris and ignorance required would be truly astonishing. My take, based on misc readings from folks who have one foot in said world, is that the global elite rich are absolutely aware of this.
Furthermore, they're actively debating the problem for the simple reason of self-preservation. They want to keep their station in life: their in-groups, all their "toys", etc. They are viscerally aware of the growing disillusioned on all sides of the spectrum and an increasing willingness of the disenchanted to burn it down instead of playing what is perceived (rightly?) to be a rigged game.
Overall, it's hardly benevolent, and questionably competent. Some individuals most certainly are both; some far from either. Regardless, I do believe that sheer greed alone will mean they'll be throwing themselves as these problems if only to keep some semblance of the "good ol' days".
I'm pretty sure the elite are going to meet their reckoning long before they get to live in climate controlled domes. It's going to make the French Revolution look like a pillow fight.
I don't reallly think we're even at a real risk of actual extinction though. We as a species have gone through far more traumatic climate change in the past. Modern civilisation might collapse but humanity before the hubris of the state and capital - hunter gatherers and nomads will just continue business as always. Even many modern anemeties might be able to persist using more decentralised and sustainable fabrication methods. We will have to make up for the breakdown of those supply chains but there are many alternatives to modern electronics that are not being persued because the status quo is currently more economical.
Hopefuly, the next iteration of civilisation will do a better job of stewardship with the planet instead of being a pest.
"serious blind-spot though" Historically I think you are correct. The barbarians at the gates could topple any elite before this one.
However, I think there is an even bigger blind-spot in the general population: technology. We have a level of technology such that aggression and basic necessities can be quite easily produced with few people (drones, modern agriculture etc). They are not as dependent on us as previous elites. I think they know that when they fly to New Zealand they can keep all the refugees out quite easily, while maintaining a life with as much comfort as today.
Wasn’t there an article on HN last we re lab food obviating farming? I’ll go look...
It's a race to build self-repairing bots. Once the wealthy have it, they can just go ahead and let most people die.
self-repairing is only a small part.
bots would have to be just as useful/cost-effective as poor humans. Apparently manual labour at $2/hr is cheaper than robots still.
If the environment is too hot for a human to work outside, the labor cost goes to infinity as the work will not be completed even if somebody takes the money
we have remote controlled robots even today for such things. still requires a human operator.
Stop complaining about the hot weather please and focus on more pressing global issues. Karachi has had 44 C before like many other places.
In fact, mean temp of Karachi is 32 C in June - which is not Low at all.
https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/pakistan/karachi/climate
and 68% percentile high temp is 35 C.
The highest temp on record for Karachi was nearly 48 C - in 1938.
For sure 44 C is not Cool - but also not worth a Guardian article for a place that has a mean temperature of 32 and many days a year above 40 C.
From a personal note - I am writing this as I sit @ 42C and I am not dying. Heck - my laptop probably does though...
The issue isn't so much the absolute temperature as much as the combination of temperature and humidity. A wet-bulb temp of 35C can be fatal.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/how-hot-is-too-hot-for-human...
According to this site, there are numerous areas of Pakistan with a wet-bulb temp well north of 35C...that seems extremely dire, and should probably not be flippantly dismissed because other places are hotter.
https://meteologix.com/pk/observations/pakistan/wet-bulb-tem...
> Stop complaining about the hot weather please and focus on more pressing global issues.
What would those more pressing issues be? Soon enough many very populated places in the world will be unlivable. Even now the reality described in the piece is shocking - 330 GBP for a month's worth of power is way more than what I pay in the Netherlands during the coldest winter months. I imagine the vast majority of Pakistanis will never be able to afford the amount of electricity needed to cool their houses down to a bearable temperature.
This comment was dead, and I expect it to be unpopular (the sentiment always is) - but I'm vouching for it because by linking some data it's at least as substantive as the submission, regardless of whether it's right or wrong.
This article isn’t about the temperature reaching 44 C for a single day.
Where you are sitting in 42 C weather, do you still have electricity? Because that’s mostly what the article is mostly about.
> This article isn’t about the temperature reaching 44 C for a single day.
Well this is the only actual data point it makes reference to, it links to a study which makes claims about 50 years in the future, which may contain some data, but that is thrice removed if it does.
==Well this is the only actual data point it makes reference to==
I don't see anywhere in the article where it makes this reference, it's just in the headline. The article actually says "When it’s above 44C it feels like you’re going to die – I’m not making that up."
==Now it goes above 40C on an average day==
A reference to the consistency of the heat as opposed to the extremes of the heat.