Recession Already Grips Corners of U.S., Menacing Trump’s 2020 Bid
bloomberg.com"job" measurement isn't an adequate metric as some jobs are high earners and some jobs pay so little that you need more than one just to keep your head above water. So people may be happier or unhappier than suggested by this metric.
In other words I don't think the article really addresses its own thesis.
Yup. Also doesn't measure the fact that some people have multiple jobs, when wages go up they often ditch one. Not to mention things like labour participation rate, underemployment, etc...
Economists have correctly predicted 5 out of the last 3 recessions.
My contacts in various parts of the manufacturing sector tell me they're already pulling back but keeping it quiet. Nobody wants to be the first to proclaim gloom and doom.
Similar situation over here in Germany. New orders have dropped greatly in some branches of the industry that I know about.
I have worked in several industries so I have a rather large network of contractor contacts and outsourcing services. I usually get a handful of cold requests and service offers per month, but this year my inbox has received that number of requests per week or even more. In a good economy these businesses can barely keep up with their workload, thus this probably means that things are cooling off. Asian businesses and companies that rely on them moreso due to the uncertainty of the tariffs and trade war. It feels very much like 2007-2008, although that may be subjective on my part.
I want nothing more than for Trump to get unseated, but it amazes me how people pin the entirety of the economy's ebbs and flows on whoever was most recently president.
Edit: the sitting president of course has influence on the big picture, but there are many other factors at play, some of which are inevitable
In this case some parts of the economy are failing (or in 'recession') directly due to the president's actions regarding the trade war. Whether these are actually indicative of a macro economic change is debatable I'd say, but soy profits have fallen, for example, and that industry's failure is a direct result of the tariffs.
while i’m on the side of “we have an economic system that crashes all by itself” i would have say though that certain policies of presidents (and the congress) can worsen them, such as repealing glass-stegal (2008 housing crisis) or other financial deregulation (1980s savings and loan crisis)
lots of fun reading:
This president has had a lot of influence on the world economy with his erratic behavior towards China, the middle east, and even loyal trading partners in Europe. As a result, we're now in a trade war that nobody needed or wanted, there's a lot of uncertainty around Afghanistan, North Korea, and Iran, etc. This goes beyond the normal ebs and flows of the economy. If anything, it's amazing how resilient the world economy is against that all of that.
The president, any president, does have the power to affect all corners of the economy. The tax overhaul is a good example, that affected everyone to some extent. I do not think anyone is saying the entirety of the economy is based on his policy but there is no question he can move the needle.
The state of the economy has a strong influence on presidential elections regardless of whether it actually makes sense as metric to judge a candidate
Anecdote: I have seen my shares of stock dip by up to 5% because of his tweets.
Is that after they went up because the US markets have been pretty decent the last few years...
The infographic shows 4 of Trump's swing states with job gains vs. 3 with job losses. My US geography isn't perfect, but it looks like losses vs. gains across states are pretty equal.
I read the whole article, they don't do a great job backing up their thesis, instead using anecdotes.
> His advisers argue that the blame for any slowdown rests with a Federal Reserve that last year hiked interest rates too quickly and a strong dollar that makes U.S. exports less competitive.
They're not wrong. Interest rate hikes reduce the amount of debt companies (or farmers) can take on to pay for equipment and rates that are too high are a drag on the economy. Low rates encourage growth.
> They're not wrong.
They're not right, either. What's far more important for farmers and loan officers is a market for selling the product.
Normally it's sort of silly to point a finger at the president for larger market trends, but if ever culpability for market trends could be laid at a president's feet, it'd be for something exactly like a poorly executed trade war. On the other hand, the market has been on a nearly 10 year run. Some sort of slowdown was inevitable.
The real story is that the tax cuts did squat to help the economy, and instead resulted in extraordinary deficits, precisely as predicated by everybody whose professional credibility was on the line.
> The real story is that the tax cuts did squat to help the economy, and instead resulted in extraordinary deficits, precisely as predicated by everybody whose professional credibility was on the line.
This is a very partisan opinion. Objectively assessing how much the tax cuts helped or didn't help the economy is impossible, but seeing what professionals predicted and then observed is not. For example the Congress has the Joint Committee on Taxation [1], whose job is to estimate the impact of various tax cuts (among other things). Their assessment was an impact on GDP of about 0.8% on average for the first decade [2]. Despite this, they also predicted a one trillion reduction in revenues overall (for the first decade). Separately, the Congressional Budget Office (which in this case has overlapping duties with the JCT), predicted a reduction in revenues of about 1.4 trillion for one decade [3] and an average impact on real GDP of 0.7% over the same period [4].
>and instead resulted in extraordinary deficits
The tax cuts did increased the deficits, but the main reason for the deficit increase is the military spending. To be more precise, the deficit increased by $194 BN between 2016 and 2018 ([5],[6]), and the military spending has increased by $123 BN over the same period, [7].
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Congress_Joint_C... [2] https://www.jct.gov/publications.html?func=startdown&id=5045
[3] https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53312
[4] https://www.cbo.gov/publication/53787
[5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_federal_bud...
[6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_federal_bud...
[7] https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-military-budget-components-ch...
Trump has basically nuked the farmers... so watch them all vote him out.
I wish that were more believable, but we're living in an extremely unbelievable timeline.
The farmers actually have doubled down on Trump and believe conspiracies that the USDA is just out to get him. [1]
Never thought I’d actually witness the emperor has no clothes.
[1] https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/10/reuters-america-many-u-s-far...
He is down 10% in farm support and that number will continue to drop as the new reality continues to set in over the next year.