VW CEO says they’ll have ‘EVs as good as Tesla’s for half the price by 2020’
electrek.coI'm sure Tesla will also have EVs as good as Tesla for half the price by 2020.
They'll also have a vastly improved super charger network, a mature software ecosystem, a mature direct sales/servicing model, and whatever else they dream up like Powerwall and other systems that can potentially add value to the whole. VW will just be scratching the surface by 2020 while Tesla will likely continue sprinting ahead.
When EV gets popular enough won't all petrol station install chargers too? When this happens the super charger network will not be a large advantage. The only issue I see is if each company creates it's own "super/fast" charging system and DRMs it for "security" reasons.
> When EV gets popular enough won't all petrol station install chargers too?
More importantly, when EVs get popular we'll obviously see new power supply stations everywhere, and they may not comply with today's notion of a gas station. We'll see for example EV-specific stations such as rest areas or highway diners or shopping centers or autosilos or private parking spots that provide that service while drivers go on with their lives. These actually already exist, but as the number of EV cars is so small in comparison to ICE cars that they are barely noticeable.
Yes, the form factor is different so we will get more chargin stations then petrol station, I was thinking at the long trips Tesla owners say they can do because they can recharge the car in 39 minutes or something like that, but most citizens will be fine with night charging at home.
The best place to charge an EV is wherever the car spends the majority of its daylight hours (which for many workers will be the company parking lot). That way they can be charged directly from solar PV during the peak hours, avoiding the necessity for storing that energy anywhere else.
Also, if these charging stations are managed by the power company, they can act as reserves of power for the area, so electricity spikes can be handled by EVs. This also goes for cars parked at home, which can charge after peak hours and use other renewable sources, like wind.
I'm very interested to see if this actually happens in the near future.
Unless solar panels evolve _considerably_ in efficiency, or you cover a gigantic area with panels for a single car, I believe that’s not really a viable option
Petrol stations are usually on prime commercial land. I doubt theyd get more revenue from charging stations over sale or lease to commercial activities like shops, etc.
I guess in the future Movie theatres, airports, malls, etc will be equipped with charging stations as an incentive to customers.
I think the idea is that most people will use home charging.
Although not being able to charge from home looks like an opportunity for someone.
Maybe some stations will have charging lobbies, where you can charge your phone and take a nap (charge yourself) while the car charges.
In that case, I foresee another wave of dongles.
Will dongles work if we talk about DRM? You may need to pay a hell lot to buy an approved dongle that contains the correct security key or someone needs to crack the DRM.
I hope we don't get scenarios where you need to charge a car, there are 10 free sports but all are from different manufacturers and are not compatible or charge you extra like we had with ATMs where you had to find teh right ATM or pay extra.
Sure but VW produces 10 Million a year. Tesla 100k.
VW hast way more: experience, capacity, people, money.
They can probably do that.
VW produces 10 million regular ICE cars a year.
It will take time to shift an entire entrenched organizational culture to focus on EVs...and not just making them, but to make ones that are truly without compromise ("as good as Tesla").
These things aren't easy at all, though it might be tempting to think that it's just a matter of resources. Microsoft had all the resources in the world and still couldn't pull off Bing or Windows Phone.
To challenge your thinking a bit, consider this: part of the reason you can buy a Tesla in California or Texas today and not worry about range at all is the supercharger network that can take your Model 3 from 0 to 80% in 20mins. That's a multi decade infrastructure investment that VW hasn't even begun. And no, regular 3rd party chargers you see plopped in random malls and centers aren't even close. Not by a long shot.
> VW produces 10 million regular ICE cars a year.
Yes, VW knows how to build cars, and manage all the aspects of the process, both technical and political, with plants spread through multiple countries continents.
And VW knows how to do that at scale.
> It will take time to shift an entire entrenched organizational culture to focus on EVs...
That assertion makes no sense, specially because VW does not need to switch the focus of anything. It's another power plant with a particular set of requirements, and VW is already handling those for decades and at much larger scale.
And production-wise, VW is orders of magnitude more capable and experienced in handling entirely different production processes.
Let's put things into perspective: Tesla is currently redlining its production process, including resorting to tents to perform ad-hoc extensions to the company's plant, just to reach 1% of VW's current production capacity, and currently VW is actually scrambling to keep entire factories with a residual production line for non-technical or economical reasons.
Sure, vw can do it, match tesla. So can audi, gm, bmw, mercedes, etc. Yet these companies haven't done it. Even the new ipace is less that my 2012 Dec Tesla 85kwh S. It's 6 years later and they haven't matched them.
I think you'll find that what VW cares most about is selling cars, not selling ICE cars. If someone proves the market for electric cars viable (thanks Tesla!), VW will not have trouble convincing themselves to make some.
In fact, the Audi e-tron is coming out soon and it is based on one of the most popular VW group compact crossovers, which is a much hotter market segment than sedans.
I know a lot of Tesla owners and they don't rely on superchargers when they travel. They just drive one of their other cars, or fly. The superchargers are not as big of an advantage as they seem to be, especially in urban areas where they are overcrowded. Futhermore, they are not free for owners of the Model 3, and usage is free only under certain limits for owners of other Tesla models: https://www.tesla.com/support/supercharging
> I think you'll find that what VW cares most about is selling cars, not selling ICE cars. If someone proves the market for electric cars viable (thanks Tesla!), VW will not have trouble convincing themselves to make some.
I would also add that even VW's unions backed VW's transition to EV, and actually insisted that VW "invested heavily" in EVs.
And that actually happened way back in 2016
https://www.forbes.com/sites/bertelschmitt/2016/11/18/volksw...
So, claiming that VW will be unable to perform that transition when at this stage the company has been actively shifting its focus for years... It shows a complete lack of understanding of how VW operates and what VW's plans have been for years.
Will VW be willing to sacrifice solid profits from its ICE cars for likely lower initial profits for electric cars, similar to how Apple cannibalized its iPod line for the iPhone? I don’t know enough about German management culture but I have not heard it to be particularly dynamic and flexible.
I agree with your other points but not with the charger network one.
What do you mean by multi-decade infrastructure investment? It hasn't taken Tesla multiple decades to spin theirs up. If you mean it's a multi-decade commitment, well sure, but it's very clear at this point that VW (and others) are going to make that commitment.
Also, it seems rather likely that actually there will be a much better commodity charger network, running on an open standard, set up. Seems unthinkable that it wouldn't be the case, actually, probably even legally enforced by regulation if necessary - though it will probably just make economic sense for all manufacturers to agree to this and evolve naturally.
Microsoft did pull off Bing and Windows Phone technically, they just missed on making them popular. VW is already in the car market and has a substantial user-base, that wasn't the case for Microsoft in those markets.
If VW can launch a quality product with way more supply than Tesla, they'll sell more. Tesla is doing most of the marketing for EVs, VW and other auto makers just need to meet demand. There's far less customer loyalty on things like cars than computers or online services, so it'll come down to value.
At the current Model 3 production rates (>50k/quarter), Tesla is on track of producing 230-250k cars this year, 350k cars next year, more if they raise the production speed further.
And $250 billion of revenue as a group annually. But that doesn’t help - if Tesla platformized the software with a developer program, the adoption rate would be astronomical and that lockin would be hard to defeat, same as the iPhone. The car will be the same as mobile phone hardware. The question is can Vw pull that off? They can certainly make the cars.
Tesla is a battery company.
I think you spelled Panasonic wrong.
I thought they bought the cells from Panasonic, but made their own batteries.
And there’s the rub. From where are VW going to source their batteries? Having vertical integration rather than having to buy from third parties is a fairly substantial advantage.
WTF are you talking about? Tesla buys their batteries from a third party.
They make their own cells.
https://www.tesla.com/blog/battery-cell-production-begins-gi...
Is this a joke? Tesla doesn't make their own cells. They buy them from Panasonic.
The point is all that experience was useless since they could not see the future, nay innovate their way into the future.
It sure seems to me like the ICE car indistry biggies are in a kodak like moment.
They had enough organisational problems to think it was easier to cheat tests for diesel pollution, than fix the issue.
From the love bug to just a bug.
I remember when Nokia used the same defense against apple in 2007.
You‘d think they could also sell cars without fraudulent software then, wouldn’t you? The question is whether they‘re prepared to lose money doing it or are just making more dishonest claims as usual.
Not sure. They did not really deliver on the Model 3 initial price, since most models are sold with the more expensive options. And if I remember correctly the price paid by the consumer depends on government subsidies as well to promote EVs.
This episode [0] from a16z doesn't fully agree with that sentiment. It has to do with the commodification of EV parts and EV services, allowing traditional market players to catch up with the disruptors.
[0] https://a16z.com/2018/09/17/hallway-conversation-tesla-disru...
I drove VW eGolf recently. Under the hood one clearly see that VW treats electrical cars as nuisance. The was a lot of empty space and a mess of cables. That is, VM still designed a car that was essentially a IC car with the engine removed and the battery stuffed under the back seats. If VM manages to change that in 2 years, then great. But they have a lot of cultural inertia to overcome.
Tesla probably won’t be able to churn out the millions of EV a year the chinese Market demands. Someone else will do it and become an EV giant. My bets are not on VW though.
I wish. I'd pay a lot if someone would make a good e-version of a "boring" car like a Golf. No huge center-mounted display, no app store, no forced remote updates, no DRM locking me out of reparing my own car. If they keep the sensors for partially automated driving as a better cruise control, I'm fine with that.
Unfortunately, the current e-Golf is just a regular Golf poorly converted to electric, way too expensive and with not enough range.
> no DRM locking me out of reparing my own car
That's going to be nearly impossible to avoid in the future. I do some software work for one automaker and every 2019+ model has a firewall on the data bus. It's not because they want to lock you out of repairing your car, it's because the pen testing and Defcon hacking has been accelerating over the past few years and they don't want headlines that say their cars can be hacked. That's bad for sales. They'll lose sales from guys like you too of course -- your concern is certainly valid, but more people are concerned about the security of their car than being able to repair it themselves.
Why firewall prevents repair? IPtables on my Linux box does not prevent me from replacing a memory or resolder failed capacitor. It's like completely different layers.
If you opened an ECU in your car, you could resolder a failed cap. There is nothing preventing you from doing that. The repairs it might prevent would be if you replaced an ECU that needs to be authorized to communicate over the bus. I can't speak for other automakers but at least in our case you don't have to go to a dealership if you don't want, there are third-party repair shops that are authorized to use our software for these kinds of repairs.
OK, but I should be able to buy any part - OEM if it is "computerized" or aftermarket if it is not - and have it installed by any trained mechanic, no matter if they are licensed or not.
I read stories that Tesla disabled cars that have been repaired too much, and that you have to have them certified and unlocked again. They always claim security and user experience grounds, but of course the main motive is maximizing profit. Apple does this, John Deere does this, basically every company who can afford to does this.
I wish they would be honest enough to say first, yup, we do this so we can charge more money for repairs and spare parts. Second, we have no other choice because our competitors do this too and we have to maximize profit. And then I hope third we get strong right to repair laws as a result. I heard in the US the situation for cars is actually not too bad as the manufacturer cannot void your warranty for installing third party parts, but there is always room for improvement.
I don't need the ability to "tinker" with my car. But in the end, I buy it, and I want it to be 100% "loyal" to me and not to the manufacturer - like a stupid hammer, or a bicycle. That should be a legal principle IMO.
> I want it to be 100% "loyal" to me and not to the manufacturer
That is ideal, but inevitably I think there has to be a bit of a give and take there because the manufacturer is likely the most trustworthy party to handle the security of their vehicles (they have the most to lose).
For example, it's very difficult to make new keys for modern cars. Most manufacturers require that you go through them, and in fact a very secure department within the company, to get a "keycode" to make new keys. I think most people would agree that is a reasonable security benefit because it makes it almost impossible for a thief to make a new key even though it adds some extra hoops for the legit owner when they want a new key.
But Chrysler, for example, allows you to buy a new keyfob from anywhere you want, even repurpose an old one and program it yourself if you have two existing keyfobs for your car (that way a valet or service center with only one keyfob can't do it, only the owner with both keyfobs can do it).
Tesla was the first to encrypt their vehicle firmware and I believe they had to do this in order to do over the air updates, and I think that was also a necessity given the way they chose to do service operations (which also made sense since their goal was to have very few moving parts and therefore reduce the need for service center visits altogether).
I think eventually the head unit will be powerful and secure enough that they will be able to initiate many of these secure "repairs" from there. But, that will require that unit to be very locked down, likely to the same level that some of Apple's devices are (you can't self-swap the secure enclave in iPhones or macbooks since that is what manages security for those devices). The car's head unit would become the "secure enclave" for the car. Right now, the car is more of a distributed system, with no particular ECU being responsible for others... which is why you need an OEM tool to reprogram them.
I hope cars become more modular at the same time. Electric cars should last a lot longer and making it easier to swap key components, like Tesla is doing with their main AI computer, with faster better units will be great... especially if the head unit becomes the hub for the rest of the car, it would be nice to upgrade those when new advancements warrant it.
Oh, automakers are finally putting security on their wide-open Car Area Networks - like the one that let a hacker stop a reporter's car - and this you see as only a bad thing?
Maybe you misunderstood me -- I don't think it's a bad thing. I think there are people who will think it's a bad thing and my comment is just stating what I've seen on the inside -- I've never once heard anyone talk about trying to lock out owners from doing their own repairs. Most of these people are owners themselves and their neighbors are owners, etc. From what I've seen, the firewall is to protect the car and its owner, not to prevent them from doing their own repairs (that is only a side effect from making the car more secure).
Which model? A couple of years ago I got an e-Golf and it's been pretty amazing. I say that as someone who owned 2 (petrol) Golfs prior. I got it cheaper than any previous Golf and it had more features too. I understand range anxiety, but the same holds (at the same price) with other marks (I've also owned a Leaf). What makes the e-Golf poorly converted and too expensive?
I don't have a specific model in mind, but as somebody else posted the e-Golf has about half the range of the Tesla.
Personally, I don't like the term range anxiety, it sounds like a fighting term from the gas car industry and also doesn't take people's worries seriously. My problem is completely different: If there was no Model S, I would be totally happy with an e-car with 140 miles range. But if I can get another car for a similar price with twice the range, I'm going to buy that instead.
It shows to me that VW (like other established brands) is not doing the technically possible, but half-hartedly quickly making an electric car, just so they also have one. The e-Golf AFAIK uses the same platform as most VW (and Skoda etc.) cars, where they crammed the batteries in there where there was space. Teslas are designed from ground up for electric, and the whole car underbody is basically a battery.
Wait - so you're basing your whole opinion on someone else's description of the range? The reduced range is partially a "where do we put the batteries" issue, but MOSTLY a price a issue. There's no way to price an e-Golf in a similar range to a 200+ mile range Tesla and not have it been $10k+ more than a regular Golf.
Saying things like "it shows to me that VW is not doing the technically possible" without ANY informed opinion is embarrassing.
edit: also, do you own any kind of electric car or are you just pontificating? Range anxiety is a real thing - literally the stress of "do I have enough electricity to get home"
That is the one thing I give to VW: their first new electric car is going to be the NEO, which is basically a Golf done from scratch as an electric car. If they can get it into production numbers high enough for the promised prices, it could be the electric car for the masses.
Sounds like the Nissan Leaf?
This. I'm also waiting for this. A Golf with electric range as much as a Tesla, with supercharging like charging capabilities will be the best...
> A Golf with electric range as much as a Tesla, with supercharging like charging capabilities will be the best...
VW's e-golf is advertised as having a 140 mile range. It's noticeably lower than Tesla's advertised range of 200 mile but as it's a city car designed for the european market I'm not sure it's relevant. I mean, in some european countries that's more than enough to drive through the entire nation.
The Model 3's advertised long range is 310 miles.
Nissan Leaf, Renault Zoe, Chevy Bolt, and the list goes on -- all boring little EVs. The huge displays and app store are the exception, not the rule.
Since we're here already ... Maybe also no smartphone door unlocking?
I don't get it, why everybody start to build car like a smartphone now days?
I'm still looking for a plug-in Camry or Tacoma.
It is funny when competitors mention:
"We will take a currently winning product X and deliver 2X by some future date Y."
Imagine if competitors actually said:
"We will first catch up to X by some date before Y. Then we will hit 2X by Y".
Not much need for “catching up” rhetorics when currently 100x more new car buyers decide to buy a VW than a Tesla.
We're talking about electric cars, where VW does indeed needs a lot of catching up to Tesla.
Not that they actually plan to catch up. In May 2018 their official plan was to make 1 million electric cars by 2025 (https://electrek.co/2018/05/29/vw-electric-vehicle-demand-eu...).
Tesla is already making ~300k per year, is on track to make ~500k within 9 months in Fremont, has already started building China plant that will add 250k within 2 years and 500k within 4-5 years, has already telegraphed building European plant for another 500k cars and will most likely start building Model Y in Nevada starting sometime 2020.
Bottom line is that Tesla will likely reach 1 million cars a year by 2022, 3 years before VW.
Maybe VW will speed up their plans but batteries don't grow on trees. Recently we learned that LG Chem wants Audi (part of VW group) to pay 10% more for batteries because demand outstrips the supply (https://electrek.co/2018/10/22/audi-e-tron-delay-software-lg...).
Tesla has been designing battery packs since Roadster days and building Gigafactory 1 since January 2015 so almost 4 years to build battery capacity for ~400k cars. As far as I know VW has no battery R&D and relies for the most important and most expensive component of ev car on 3rd party suppliers who also supply the same thing to their competitors and apparently are so swamped by demand that they can raise prices while Tesla is aggressively bringing the price of batteries down.
And it remains to be seen if they are able to create software that is as refined as Tesla's.
VW are selling 100x as many EVs as Tesla? Really? Do you have a source for this claim?
That's not the claim they made, and you're willfully ignoring that detail.
At first I thought this is an unusually short news article.
Took me a while to figure out that scrolling on this page is broken unless you enable javascript.
Looks like the reason is that it needs Googles amp code to function.
It's hillarious that Google gets away bloating the web with crap and selling us that as a way to make it more lightweight.
Flagging it for this reason. I think we should not support AMP here on HN.
Try the uMatrix browser plugin. No cross domain javascript is loaded by default, and it's super configurable. I was able to read this page, but the map and some other content was blocked.
I do use uMatrix and love it.
If you were able to read it without js, the reason is probably that HN meanwhile changed the link to the non-amp version.
Ah ok, cheers to another uMatrix user!
Does anyone else think traditional manufacturers will initially sell their EV's at a loss or low profit margin to get a bigger foothold in the market, being propped up by their sales of diesel/petrol cars.
Possible, but is it really worth it if they don't have the infrastructure to back up their EV's?
Also, what will happen to the price of ICE cars if EV's start catching up?
But will they sneak a diesel engine in the trunk?
No, but by German ingenuity, they'll find another way to have to cheat emissions tests.
VW has enough problems with the quality of their ICE vehicles. They don't need to brag about quality of the relatively new electric vehicles.
If VWs electric vehicles really are as good as Tesla's by 2020, it will be more a condemnation of Tesla than praise for VW.
Stockprice Quote. Good luck.
If they had them developed this far, why did they sell us the current crap for three decades with no signs of EVs?
Kinda sad to see companies like VW miss the opportunity.
Elon Musk: “Do it.”
Plot twist: They Won't.
Plot double twist: VW won't actually produce more or cheaper EVs but Tesla goes under and stops making cars so technically this statement is still correct.
Triple plot twist: VAG buys Tesla
Quadruple plot twist: Tesla buys VAG
(Being German VAG not succeeding is quite a frightening perspective. But being human I appreciate Musk jumpstarting the EV business, whoever will be the big players in the end.)
Quintuple plot twist: Tesla attempts to buy VW, but ends up pulling a Porsche and getting bought by VW in the act.
Sextuple plot twist, solar flares take out the power grid, and everyone buys diesels again.
When solar flares take out the grid, buying new cars will be the least of our worries.
I can’t speak for others, but personally I wouldn’t entertain the purchase of a VW or anything from the VW Group after the dieselgate fiasco - regardless of whether it’s electric or not.